Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Raleigh, NC

July 1, 2012Cumberland County, Hoke County, Sampson County, North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 1, 2012, 4:42 PM EDT for Cumberland County, Hoke County, Sampson County, North Carolina. It was in force for 66 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 1, 2012, 4:42 PM EDT (20:42 UTC)
Expired
Jul 1, 2012, 5:48 PM EDT
In force
66 min
Issued by
NWS Raleigh, NC
Area
Storm-based polygon

Counties Cumberland County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Sampson County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 1, 5:20 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG1 N Ivanhoe, NCSEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR IVANHOE AND HARRELLS.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 38 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jul 1, 12:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-07-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2962 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-07-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 85 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2962 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-200 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1419 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
85 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
66 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

021 
WUUS52 KRAH 012042
SVRRAH
NCC051-093-163-012200-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0164.120701T2042Z-120701T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
442 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN HOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
  SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
  SAMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 437 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TURKEY TO 11 MILES
  SOUTH OF HOPE MILLS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WARSAW TO 13
  MILES NORTHEAST OF LUMBERTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. GOLF BALL
  SIZED HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH ARE LIKELY
  WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TURKEY...
  GARLAND...
  IVANHOE...
  CEDAR CREEK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL WILL DAMAGE VEHICLES...WINDOWS AND SOME ROOFS. SEVERE
WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND CAN DAMAGE MOBILE
HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 7832 3467 7833 3485 7850 3483 7890
      3488 7893 3495 7903 3485 7916 3497 7922
      3504 7902 3508 7863 3515 7854 3527 7829
      3522 7824 3520 7816 3489 7814 3474 7819
      3471 7811 3456 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 284DEG 11KT 3502 7813 3481 7891

$$

77
3 follow-up statements
171 
WWUS52 KRAH 012104
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
504 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCC093-012111-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0164.000000T0000Z-120701T2200Z/
HOKE NC-
504 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOKE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN 
HOKE COUNTY. THUS... THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3471 7811 3474 7819 3489 7814 3494 7814
      3490 7830 3493 7854 3492 7899 3490 7896
      3489 7893 3483 7890 3485 7850 3467 7833
      3461 7832 3456 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 318DEG 24KT 3476 7813 3482 7895

$$

NCC051-163-012200-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0164.000000T0000Z-120701T2200Z/
CUMBERLAND NC-SAMPSON NC-
504 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT 
FOR SOUTHERN SAMPSON AND SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HARRELLS TO 32 MILES WEST OF GARLAND...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF WALLACE TO 13 MILES EAST
OF RED SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE... IVANHOE... 
HARRELLS... AND RURAL SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3471 7811 3474 7819 3489 7814 3494 7814
      3490 7830 3493 7854 3492 7899 3490 7896
      3489 7893 3483 7890 3485 7850 3467 7833
      3461 7832 3456 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 318DEG 24KT 3476 7813 3482 7895

$$

77
952 
WWUS52 KRAH 012124
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
524 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCC051-012132-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0164.000000T0000Z-120701T2200Z/
CUMBERLAND NC-
524 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF CUMBERLAND 
COUNTY. THUS...  THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3468 7815 3456 7825 3461 7832 3467 7833
      3481 7846 3485 7815 3475 7819 3474 7819
      3471 7811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 292DEG 27KT 3464 7824

$$

NCC163-012200-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0164.000000T0000Z-120701T2200Z/
SAMPSON NC-
524 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT 
FOR SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY...

AT 518 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
IVANHOE...OR 17 MILES WEST OF WALLACE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE... IVANHOE AND 
HARRELLS.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3468 7815 3456 7825 3461 7832 3467 7833
      3481 7846 3485 7815 3475 7819 3474 7819
      3471 7811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 292DEG 27KT 3464 7824

$$

77
122 
WWUS52 KRAH 012148
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
548 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCC163-012158-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0164.000000T0000Z-120701T2200Z/
SAMPSON NC-
548 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SAMPSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3468 7815 3456 7825 3461 7832 3467 7833
      3481 7846 3485 7815 3475 7819 3474 7819
      3471 7811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 292DEG 27KT 3457 7802

$$

77

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 1, 4:03 PM EDT, 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 1, 4:03 PM EDT, 39 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
403 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT
WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWING AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER GA
AND A FAIRLY SWIFT (FOR JULY) WNW FLOW TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST...
ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KTS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. AN 850 MB TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL NC... JUST EAST OF THE ANTICYCLONE CORE
BETWEEN BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA (A SLIGHT BUMP TO THE SW FROM 24 HRS
AGO)... AND TEMPS HERE REMAIN QUITE WARM AT 24-25C. AT THE
SURFACE... A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM VA ACROSS KY AND
CENTRAL IL TO SE IA... WITH THE STRONGER SYNOPTIC FRONT FURTHER
NORTH FROM MN ACROSS SRN MI AND NRN OH THROUGH PA/NYC... AND A
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WRN PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS TO CENTRAL
GA.

PRECIP CHANCES AND SEVERE RISK: WITH EVIDENCE OF A STRONG EML ON
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS... LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN IN THE VICINITY
AND UPSTREAM REMAIN RATHER HIGH... 6 C/KM AT 0-3 KM AND STEEPENING
RAPIDLY... AND LIKEWISE IN THE MID LEVELS AT 7.5-8.0... EXPECTED TO
RISE TOWARD 8.5 C/KM. MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -10C TO -15C AND
OVER 5000 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. THE 0C
TO -20C LAYER ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOISTEN WITH RISING PW... AND GIVEN
EXPECTATIONS OF VIGOROUS PARCEL ACCELERATION THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN
THE MIXED PHASE HAIL GROWTH ZONE (-10C TO -30C LAYER CAPE OVER 1500
J/KG) AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 25-40 KTS... THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS -- LIKELY BEGINNING AS DISCRETE HAIL-PRODUCING CELLS
BEFORE MORPHING INTO A QUASI-LINEAR SEVERE-WIND-DOMINANT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX (SUGGESTED BY THE DEEP AND STILL RATHER DRY MIXED LAYER ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FORWARD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHT'S
MCS OVER SRN IN IS STRENGTHENING ANEW OVER THE KY/VA BORDER...
SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND THIS FEATURE IS
ON PACE TO REACH OUR CWA BY 1 PM. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMUM IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE SURFACE INVERSION HAS NOT YET MIXED OUT WITH ABUNDANT
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS HIGH AND
THE INVERSION SHOULD BE QUICKLY BROKEN AS TEMPS (ALREADY IN THE MID
80S TO NEAR 90) STEADILY CLIMB. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WHICH INCLUDES THE MCV RESULTING FROM
THE IN MCS) AND INSTABILITY (BUOYED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS THAT ARE
MUCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY... BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE
OUTFLOW-AFFECTED TRIAD) SUGGESTS A GOOD CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS SPREADING OVER NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

REGARDING TEMPS... THE MORNING CONVECTIVE-DEBRIS MID CLOUDS HELPED
HOLD READINGS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT... AS DID THE SURGE IN DEW POINTS.
AS THESE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING... HEATING IS STRONG WITH
CURRENT TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE TEMPS AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY (THIS IS DUE IN PART TO THE WARMER LOWS HOWEVER).
WITH THICKNESSES CLOSE TO YESTERDAY... EXPECT READINGS TO CONTINUE
TO SOAR THROUGH THE 90S... ALTHOUGH THE INSTANCES OF 100+ READINGS
MAY NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CONVECTION FROM OUR NORTHWEST... AND WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE AND SEA-BREEZE CLOUDS. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPS WILL BE MORE THAN OFFSET BY THE HIGHER HUMIDITY TO CREATE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES... THUS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL
BE LEFT AS IS THROUGH EARLY EVENING... SINCE SUCCESSIVE DAYS OF THIS
KIND OF HEAT WITH SCANT LITTLE RELIEF AT NIGHT HAVE BEEN SHOWN TO
EXACERBATE THE RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. HIGHS 98-104 AND
LOWS TONIGHT 71-77. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM ...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MID-UPPER ANTI-CYCLONE TAKES A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE WILL
SLOWLY ABATE AND THAT CENTRAL NC SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MONDAY STILL A GOOD 20-25M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN VICINITY OF THE CENTURY MARK.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR 102
DEGREES NW AND 104-108 IN THE EAST-SE. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IN THE MORNING WHICH MAY LIMIT MORNING INSOLATION.
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE BY MID DAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO MAX HEATING. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST NOT
EXTENDING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING ANOTHER DAY AND INSTEAD GO WITH
A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE BULK OF CENTRAL NC (EXCLUDING THE NW
PIEDMONT).  IF CLOUDINESS LESS EXTENSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED AND
CONVECTION APPEARS IT WILL NOT FIRE UNTIL 3 PM OR LATER...COULD SEE
A NEED FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO BE COMPARABLE TO THIS AFTERNOON AS
BULK SHEAR VECTORS 30-35KTS SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. PLUS
LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IMPRESSIVE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OFF
THE 12Z GFS 2500-4000 J/KG. THIS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UPPER HIGH DRIFTS WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD ESTABLISHING A NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SEWD IN THIS FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION. MAY SEE
CONVECTION AT ANYTIME BASED ON ARRIVAL OF DISTURBANCES BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT THE EXTREME LEVELS
EXPERIENCED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM...

THURSDAY...

STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS-MID MS VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN A NW FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC THURSDAY WITH MINOR
PERTURBATIONS IN THIS FLOW. THESE DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION...MOST
PROMINENT IN THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN 30-40
PERCENT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROJECTED TO BE GREATEST.
THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING ABOUT 10M ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SUGGEST MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY EXTENDS EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED WARMING ALOFT WILL SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION SO WILL
DECREASE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES RESPOND...RETURNING TO AROUND 1440-1445M TERRITORY
BY THE WEEKEND. PLAN TO HAVE MID 90S FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC BY
SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST -- A PATTERN FAVORABLE
FOR RIDGE-RIDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THIS TIME OF YEAR -- WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS IN THE HOT MID LEVEL
RIDGE...ENCOURAGED BY A TROUGH OFFSHORE THE PAC NW COAST THIS
MORNING...BY THU INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH PATTERNS SUGGEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO - IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. CONSENSUS H85 TEMPS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
20 SUGGESTS CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
92 TO 99 AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EACH DAY AND NIGHT...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AT ALL SITES. BUT
THE MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SUCH STORMS HAVE ALREADY AFFECTED INT AND GSO WITH
NORTHWESTERLY (CROSSWIND AT GSO) WINDS BRIEFLY SUSTAINED NEAR 20 AND
GUSTING TO 30-35 KTS. SIMILAR WINDS... AND STRONGER THAT COULD GUST
TO 50 KTS... WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 1-2 HR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL LOCATIONS. EVEN NOT CLOSE TO A STORM... A GUST FRONT EXTENDING
FROM JUST SOUTH OF BURLINGTON THROUGH HILLSBOROUGH TO NEAR ROXBORO
WILL BRING WINDS OF 35-40 KTS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE 08Z-13Z MONDAY MORNING AT RDU/FAY/RWI.

BEYOND MIDDAY MONDAY... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON... AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
50 MPH COULD OCCUR IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD... WITH POSSIBLY SOME EARLY MORNING
MVFR FOG. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:

JULY 1 (SUNDAY)--
RDU: 99 (2005)
GSO: 98 (1954) (RECORD ALREADY BROKEN TODAY BY A HIGH OF 99)
FAY: 104 (1959)

JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)

ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:

RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)

GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)

FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 1, 4:31 AM EDT, 12 hours 11 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
431 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCZ083>086-088-089-020845-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
431 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH.

IN ADDITION TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ078-020845-
WAYNE-
431 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS INTO TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH.

IN ADDITION TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-073>077-020845-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-
EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-
HARNETT-
431 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ021>023-038-039-020845-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
431 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 1, 4:04 PM EDT, 38 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
404 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNW NEW HOPE          35.87N  78.00W
07/01/2012                   NASH               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON A CAR... TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200460

SEC
Local storm report, Jul 1, 4:17 PM EDT, 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
417 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             FAYETTEVILLE            35.07N  78.90W
07/01/2012  E1.75 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NC   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN
            FAYETTEVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200461

SEC
Local storm report, Jul 1, 4:22 PM EDT, 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
422 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW NEW HOPE          35.78N  78.00W
07/01/2012                   WILSON             NC   PUBLIC

            TREE IN SOUTHBOUND LANE OF INTERSTATE 95 NEAR MILE
            MARKER 123.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200462

GIH
Local storm report, Jul 1, 4:25 PM EDT, 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
425 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             6 WSW CEDAR CREEK       34.93N  78.85W
07/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200463

SEC
Local storm report, Jul 1, 4:31 PM EDT, 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
431 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW WILSON            35.74N  77.95W
07/01/2012                   WILSON             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200464

GIH
Local storm report, Jul 1, 4:39 PM EDT, 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
439 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             3 W VANDER              35.03N  78.85W
07/01/2012  E1.75 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200465

SEC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 30, 9:31 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHGuilford59 min
Jun 30, 10:29 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHAlamance46 min
Jun 30, 10:41 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHGranville, Person64 min
Jun 30, 10:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAlamance, Guilford, Orange62 min
Jun 30, 11:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHChatham, Durham, Orange32 min
Jul 1, 1:10 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHFranklin, Nash, Vance, Warren65 min
Jul 1, 1:30 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHStanly60 min
Jul 1, 2:55 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHWarren50 min
Jul 1, 4:00 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHGranville, Person60 min
Jul 1, 4:06 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHHalifax54 min
Jul 1, 4:30 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHVance45 min
Jul 1, 5:07 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHNash53 min
Jul 1, 7:16 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHWarren74 min
Jul 1, 11:03 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHForsyth3 hr
Jul 1, 12:30 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHForsyth, Guilford60 min
Jul 1, 12:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHDavidson, Forsyth, Guilford38 min
Jul 1, 1:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAlamance, Durham, Granville, Guilford, Orange, Person and 1 more64 min
Jul 1, 2:12 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHRichmond48 min
Jul 1, 2:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAnson, Richmond45 min
Jul 1, 2:20 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHChatham, Lee, Orange, Wake55 min
Jul 1, 2:31 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHHarnett44 min
Jul 1, 2:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHDurham, Franklin, Granville, Vance, Wake, Warren72 min
Jul 1, 2:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHHarnett, Johnston, Wake21 min
Jul 1, 2:47 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHCumberland, Sampson58 min
Jul 1, 2:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHCumberland, Hoke66 min
Jul 1, 2:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAnson, Richmond, Scotland61 min
Jul 1, 3:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHFranklin, Johnston, Nash, Wake, Wilson57 min
Jul 1, 3:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHEdgecombe, Franklin, Halifax, Nash, Wilson74 min
Jul 1, 3:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHCumberland, Sampson78 min
Jul 1, 3:44 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRAHCumberland, Hoke, Sampson2 hr
Jul 1, 3:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHJohnston, Wayne, Wilson57 min
Jul 1, 3:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHHoke35 min
Jul 1, 4:10 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRAHEdgecombe66 min
Jul 1, 4:24 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHSampson12 min
Jul 1, 4:59 PM EDTHeat AdvisoryRAHAnson, Chatham, Cumberland, Durham, Edgecombe, Franklin and 18 more22 hr
Jul 1, 6:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAnson, Stanly68 min
Jul 1, 7:48 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHAnson, Richmond, Scotland87 min
Jul 1, 7:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAnson, Richmond38 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2012Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.