Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Nashville, TN

311 
WWUS54 KOHX 040108
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
808 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

TNC081-101-135-040130-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0175.000000T0000Z-120604T0130Z/
PERRY TN-HICKMAN TN-LEWIS TN-
808 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
LEWIS...SOUTHWESTERN HICKMAN AND PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 802 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR 
LINDEN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LOBELVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 8802 3571 8803 3581 8764 3548 8754
      3548 8770 3549 8775 3549 8780 3548 8782
      3547 8803 3549 8799 3553 8798 3561 8804
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 267DEG 19KT 3562 8780

$$

TB12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
736 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THE ISSUANCE
OF TOR WATCH NUMBER 348 UNTIL 08Z. AIRMASS S OF I-40 AND W OF I-65
CONTINUES TO BE UNSTABLE AND THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SVR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 655 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

UPDATE...
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS AT THE TOP OF THE
HOUR TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY POPS ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE PER SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...
WILL GO CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST REASONING.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MAIN PROBLEM IS TIMING TSRA CELLS AND CLUSTERS THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA AS WAVES MOVE ESE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE. IT APPEARS THAT TSRA OVER AR WILL DEVELOP INTO AN MCS WHICH
WILL COME INTO MID TN LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP TEMPO FOR TSRA
AT KCKV AND KBNA FROM 07Z- 13Z. ACTIVITY IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH
KCSV...SO JUST VCTS THERE. MORE TSRA FOR MONDAY...BUT TIMING AND
COVERAGE DIFFICULT TO KNOW AT THIS TIME...JUST BROAD BRUSHING VCTS
ALL SITES AFTER 18Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO FAR SPARED OF ANY
ACTIVE WX. CONVECTIVE WATCH COVERS MOST OF NORTH ALABAMA, WHERE
DEW POINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AND INSTABILITY THEREFORE
GREATER. LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS PLACE AREAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND NEARLY ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK TOMORROW. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING WHAT AMOUNTS TO AN
MCS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY IN MODEL FORECASTS, AM GOING LIKELY MOST AREAS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WITH A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS COINCIDENT
WITH THE LATEST SPC SLIGHT RISK AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, WITH GOOD INSTABILITY ABOVE 925 MB BY 06Z TONIGHT. DRY
LAYER FORMING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL ENHANCE OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO DRY OUR AFTER MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND A RIDGE TO OUR WEST HELPS
CREATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
501 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
501 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY ACROSS
ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH A LESSER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

55