Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
655 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.UPDATE...
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS AT THE TOP OF THE
HOUR TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY POPS ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE PER SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...
WILL GO CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST REASONING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MAIN PROBLEM IS TIMING TSRA CELLS AND CLUSTERS THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA AS WAVES MOVE ESE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE. IT APPEARS THAT TSRA OVER AR WILL DEVELOP INTO AN MCS WHICH
WILL COME INTO MID TN LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP TEMPO FOR TSRA
AT KCKV AND KBNA FROM 07Z- 13Z. ACTIVITY IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH
KCSV...SO JUST VCTS THERE. MORE TSRA FOR MONDAY...BUT TIMING AND
COVERAGE DIFFICULT TO KNOW AT THIS TIME...JUST BROAD BRUSHING VCTS
ALL SITES AFTER 18Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO FAR SPARED OF ANY
ACTIVE WX. CONVECTIVE WATCH COVERS MOST OF NORTH ALABAMA, WHERE
DEW POINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AND INSTABILITY THEREFORE
GREATER. LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS PLACE AREAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND NEARLY ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK TOMORROW. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING WHAT AMOUNTS TO AN
MCS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY IN MODEL FORECASTS, AM GOING LIKELY MOST AREAS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WITH A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS COINCIDENT
WITH THE LATEST SPC SLIGHT RISK AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, WITH GOOD INSTABILITY ABOVE 925 MB BY 06Z TONIGHT. DRY
LAYER FORMING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL ENHANCE OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO DRY OUR AFTER MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND A RIDGE TO OUR WEST HELPS
CREATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31

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