Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Nashville, TN

383 
WWUS54 KOHX 040155
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
855 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

TNC099-181-040205-
/O.EXP.KOHX.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-120604T0200Z/
WAYNE TN-LAWRENCE TN-
855 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL LAWRENCE AND EAST
CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3538 8723 3510 8726 3526 8777 3540 8766
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 290DEG 20KT 3525 8739

$$

13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
758 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
00Z LAPS SFC BASED INDICES SHOWING LI'S RANGING FROM -5 TO
-8...CAPES AROUND 2800 J/KG ACROSS LEWIS AND MAURY COUNTIES...AND
0-3KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG IN THE LEWIS AND
MAURY COUNTY AREAS ALSO. THUS...AREAS S OF I-40 AND W OF I-65
CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST PRIME FOR SVR TSTM POTENTIAL. 00Z KOHX
SOUNDING SHOWING A MORE CAPPED AND LESS UNSTABLE ATM OVER THE AREA
NEAR THE NWS NASHVILLE OFFICE IN WRN WILSON COUNTY AND BELIEVE
THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THIS AREA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 736 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THE ISSUANCE
OF TOR WATCH NUMBER 348 UNTIL 08Z. AIRMASS S OF I-40 AND W OF I-65
CONTINUES TO BE UNSTABLE AND THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SVR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 655 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

UPDATE...
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS AT THE TOP OF THE
HOUR TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY POPS ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE PER SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...
WILL GO CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST REASONING.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MAIN PROBLEM IS TIMING TSRA CELLS AND CLUSTERS THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA AS WAVES MOVE ESE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE. IT APPEARS THAT TSRA OVER AR WILL DEVELOP INTO AN MCS WHICH
WILL COME INTO MID TN LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP TEMPO FOR TSRA
AT KCKV AND KBNA FROM 07Z- 13Z. ACTIVITY IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH
KCSV...SO JUST VCTS THERE. MORE TSRA FOR MONDAY...BUT TIMING AND
COVERAGE DIFFICULT TO KNOW AT THIS TIME...JUST BROAD BRUSHING VCTS
ALL SITES AFTER 18Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO FAR SPARED OF ANY
ACTIVE WX. CONVECTIVE WATCH COVERS MOST OF NORTH ALABAMA, WHERE
DEW POINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AND INSTABILITY THEREFORE
GREATER. LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS PLACE AREAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND NEARLY ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK TOMORROW. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING WHAT AMOUNTS TO AN
MCS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY IN MODEL FORECASTS, AM GOING LIKELY MOST AREAS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WITH A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS COINCIDENT
WITH THE LATEST SPC SLIGHT RISK AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, WITH GOOD INSTABILITY ABOVE 925 MB BY 06Z TONIGHT. DRY
LAYER FORMING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL ENHANCE OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO DRY OUR AFTER MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND A RIDGE TO OUR WEST HELPS
CREATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
501 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
501 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY ACROSS
ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH A LESSER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

55