Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
254 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. AS OF
2 PM CDT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVALENT WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND
EAST ARKANSAS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT ALONG WITH
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SHORT TERM MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM
TRENDS...THINK OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY ISOLATED AT BEST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY MENTION AT THIS TIME...AND WILL REMOVE
MENTION FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING RAIN FREE WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE AN OPEN WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
LIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/OPEN WAVE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND
DEEPENING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST AR THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MO AT 17Z. A POST FRONTAL VFR DECK AROUND FL050 WAS
NOTED OVER EASTERN MO...INTO SOUTHERN IL.

FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH MEM/MKL AROUND 00Z. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED THE BRIEF VCTS MENTION AT
MEM AND MKL FOR THE 18Z TAF. TUP WILL SEE LOW END SHRA CHANCES
TOWARD 02Z OR LATER...WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NOT LIKELY
SUFFICIENT FOR A VCTS INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

NAM INDICATES A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT MENTION TO SCT AT THIS TIME.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  48  61  42  59 /  40   0   0  30
MKL  43  58  37  57 /  30   0   0  30
JBR  42  58  38  56 /  10   0   0  40
TUP  49  64  40  62 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
503 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-042215-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
503 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE...AND FAR NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH A SECONDARY
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT HAIL OR STRONG
WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.

JLH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
541 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

ARZ048-049-032330-
LEE AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
541 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR...

  LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER MORO AT 541 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LEE AND ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
MARIANNA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 9059 3467 9061 3467 9106 3473 9106
      3473 9110 3474 9111 3486 9111 3487 9112
      3490 9113 3491 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 277DEG 22KT 3482 9095

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