Severe Thunderstorm Warning 465, NWS Memphis, TN

880 
WWUS54 KMEG 032115
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
415 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

TNC075-032125-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0465.000000T0000Z-121103T2130Z/
HAYWOOD TN-
415 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 415 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA 
AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3551 8908 3564 8907 3569 8888 3551 8889
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 262DEG 23KT 3561 8899

$$

TNC113-032130-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0465.000000T0000Z-121103T2130Z/
MADISON TN-
415 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY...

AT 415 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HUNTERSVILLE...OR 12 MILES WEST OF JACKSON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LEIGHTON...
DENMARK...NEELY AND HUNTERSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8908 3564 8907 3569 8888 3551 8889
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 262DEG 23KT 3561 8899

$$

107 
WWUS54 KMEG 032124
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
424 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

TNC113-032134-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0465.000000T0000Z-121103T2130Z/
MADISON TN-
424 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...

AT 424 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3551 8908 3564 8907 3569 8888 3551 8889
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 262DEG 23KT 3562 8892

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
254 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. AS OF
2 PM CDT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVALENT WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND
EAST ARKANSAS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT ALONG WITH
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SHORT TERM MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM
TRENDS...THINK OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY ISOLATED AT BEST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY MENTION AT THIS TIME...AND WILL REMOVE
MENTION FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING RAIN FREE WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE AN OPEN WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
LIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/OPEN WAVE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND
DEEPENING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST AR THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MO AT 17Z. A POST FRONTAL VFR DECK AROUND FL050 WAS
NOTED OVER EASTERN MO...INTO SOUTHERN IL.

FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH MEM/MKL AROUND 00Z. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED THE BRIEF VCTS MENTION AT
MEM AND MKL FOR THE 18Z TAF. TUP WILL SEE LOW END SHRA CHANCES
TOWARD 02Z OR LATER...WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NOT LIKELY
SUFFICIENT FOR A VCTS INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

NAM INDICATES A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT MENTION TO SCT AT THIS TIME.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  48  61  42  59 /  40   0   0  30
MKL  43  58  37  57 /  30   0   0  30
JBR  42  58  38  56 /  10   0   0  40
TUP  49  64  40  62 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-041200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
327 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
340 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

TNZ050>052-032115-
CROCKETT TN-HAYWOOD TN-MADISON TN-
340 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER WAS LOCATED 4
MILES WEST OF BROWNSVILLE AT 340 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CROCKETT...HAYWOOD AND MADISON COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BROWNSVILLE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3575 8890 3551 8891 3551 8937 3569 8938
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 273DEG 30KT 3561 8928