Alert archive / Tennessee / Special Weather Statements in 2012
Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN
NWS Memphis, TN issued this special weather statement at Nov 3, 2012, 3:59 PM CDT for Fayette County, Tennessee. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 3, 2012, 3:59 PM CDT (20:59 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 3, 2012, 4:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 31 min
- Issued by
- NWS Memphis, TN
County Fayette County, TN
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 79 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 165 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -143 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1329 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 21 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 122 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 140 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Nov 3, 2:54 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 3, 2:54 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 254 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012 .DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. AS OF 2 PM CDT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVALENT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND EAST ARKANSAS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST. .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS...THINK OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY ISOLATED AT BEST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY MENTION AT THIS TIME...AND WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BRINGING RAIN FREE WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE AN OPEN WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/OPEN WAVE LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND DEEPENING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND. CJC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST AR THROUGH SOUTHEAST MO AT 17Z. A POST FRONTAL VFR DECK AROUND FL050 WAS NOTED OVER EASTERN MO...INTO SOUTHERN IL. FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH MEM/MKL AROUND 00Z. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED THE BRIEF VCTS MENTION AT MEM AND MKL FOR THE 18Z TAF. TUP WILL SEE LOW END SHRA CHANCES TOWARD 02Z OR LATER...WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NOT LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR A VCTS INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. NAM INDICATES A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT MENTION TO SCT AT THIS TIME. PWB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 48 61 42 59 / 40 0 0 30 MKL 43 58 37 57 / 30 0 0 30 JBR 42 58 38 56 / 10 0 0 40 TUP 49 64 40 62 / 40 20 0 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 3, 3:27 PM CDT, 32 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 327 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-041200- ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER- FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY- ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON- MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 327 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Nov 3, 3:40 PM CDT, 19 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 340 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012 TNZ050>052-032115- CROCKETT TN-HAYWOOD TN-MADISON TN- 340 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE... CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF BROWNSVILLE AT 340 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. PEOPLE IN CROCKETT...HAYWOOD AND MADISON COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BROWNSVILLE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. && LAT...LON 3575 8890 3551 8891 3551 8937 3569 8938 TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 273DEG 30KT 3561 8928
Special weather statement, Nov 3, 3:59 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 359 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012 TNZ049-050-089-032130- FAYETTE TN-HAYWOOD TN-TIPTON TN- 359 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR... NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 18 MILES WEST OF DANCYVILLE AT 359 PM CDT... MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. PEOPLE IN FAYETTE...HAYWOOD AND TIPTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. && LAT...LON 3527 8919 3526 8963 3547 8963 3551 8918 TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 259DEG 35KT 3539 8959
The office that day
Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 5:27 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Tunica | 48 min |
| Nov 3, 5:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | DeSoto, Marshall | 48 min |
| Nov 3, 6:09 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | DeSoto, Tunica | 32 min |
| Nov 3, 6:24 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Tunica | 51 min |
| Nov 3, 6:31 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Marshall | 44 min |
| Nov 3, 6:41 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | DeSoto | 34 min |
| Nov 3, 6:45 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Benton | 45 min |
| Nov 3, 3:40 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Haywood | 35 min |
| Nov 3, 3:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Haywood, Madison | 36 min |
| Nov 3, 4:22 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Chester | 38 min |
| Nov 3, 4:31 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Hardeman | 29 min |
| Nov 3, 4:36 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Fayette, Hardeman | 39 min |
| Nov 3, 4:39 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Carroll | 36 min |
| Nov 3, 4:50 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Shelby | 25 min |
| Nov 3, 4:52 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Chester | 38 min |
| Nov 3, 4:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Shelby | 36 min |
| Nov 3, 4:56 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Shelby | 23 min |
| Nov 3, 5:10 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Hardeman, McNairy | 50 min |
| Nov 3, 5:17 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Fayette | 43 min |
| Nov 3, 5:25 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Fayette, Shelby | 22 min |
| Nov 3, 5:34 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Hardin | 41 min |
| Nov 3, 5:40 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Shelby | 50 min |
| Nov 3, 5:53 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Fayette, Hardeman | 52 min |
| Nov 3, 6:28 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Chester, Hardeman, McNairy | 47 min |
| Nov 3, 4:45 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | St. Francis | 45 min |
| Nov 3, 4:48 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Lee, St. Francis | 27 min |
| Nov 3, 5:02 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Crittenden | 28 min |
| Nov 3, 5:08 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Lee, St. Francis | 37 min |
| Nov 3, 5:20 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Crittenden | 25 min |
| Nov 3, 5:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Crittenden, Lee, St. Francis | 37 min |
| Nov 3, 5:41 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Lee | 49 min |
| Nov 3, 6:57 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Phillips | 48 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Tennessee, 2012Every special weather statement in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.