Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

November 3, 2012Crittenden County, Arkansas

NWS Memphis, TN issued this special weather statement at Nov 3, 2012, 5:02 PM CDT for Crittenden County, Arkansas. It was in force for 28 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 3, 2012, 5:02 PM CDT (22:02 UTC)
Expired: Nov 3, 2012, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 28 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN

County Crittenden County, AR

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 53 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 165 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -143 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1329 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 122 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 140 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Nov 3, 2:54 PM CDT, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 3, 2:54 PM CDT, 2 hours 8 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
254 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. AS OF
2 PM CDT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVALENT WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND
EAST ARKANSAS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT ALONG WITH
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SHORT TERM MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM
TRENDS...THINK OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY ISOLATED AT BEST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY MENTION AT THIS TIME...AND WILL REMOVE
MENTION FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING RAIN FREE WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE AN OPEN WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
LIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/OPEN WAVE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND
DEEPENING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST AR THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MO AT 17Z. A POST FRONTAL VFR DECK AROUND FL050 WAS
NOTED OVER EASTERN MO...INTO SOUTHERN IL.

FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH MEM/MKL AROUND 00Z. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED THE BRIEF VCTS MENTION AT
MEM AND MKL FOR THE 18Z TAF. TUP WILL SEE LOW END SHRA CHANCES
TOWARD 02Z OR LATER...WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NOT LIKELY
SUFFICIENT FOR A VCTS INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

NAM INDICATES A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT MENTION TO SCT AT THIS TIME.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  48  61  42  59 /  40   0   0  30
MKL  43  58  37  57 /  30   0   0  30
JBR  42  58  38  56 /  10   0   0  40
TUP  49  64  40  62 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 3, 3:27 PM CDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-041200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
327 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Nov 3, 4:45 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
445 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

ARZ048-049-032230-
LEE AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
445 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF NEW SALEM AT 446 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LEE AND ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
FORREST CITY...MADISON AND PALESTINE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 9111 3501 9106 3507 9105 3513 9056
      3481 9058 3482 9111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 264DEG 27KT 3494 9102

Special weather statement, Nov 3, 4:50 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
450 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

ARZ036-TNZ088-032215-
CRITTENDEN AR-SHELBY TN-
450 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR...

  EAST CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  WESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER WEST MEMPHIS AT 450 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CRITTENDEN AND SHELBY COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
MARION...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON AND WEST MEMPHIS...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO
INCLUDES BRANDYWINE LAKE...CORONEE LAKE AND WAPANOCCA LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3535 8985 3510 8985 3506 9024 3525 9023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 269DEG 28KT 3516 9016

Special weather statement, Nov 3, 4:52 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
452 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

TNZ052>054-090-091-032230-
CHESTER TN-HARDEMAN TN-HENDERSON TN-MCNAIRY TN-MADISON TN-
452 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR...

  CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTH CENTRAL HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTH CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF HENDERSON AT 452 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CHESTER...HARDEMAN...HENDERSON...MADISON AND MCNAIRY
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR CHICKASAW STATE FOREST...
CHICKASAW STATE PARK AND HENDERSON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES PINE LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 8837 3541 8909 3556 8905 3554 8836
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 269DEG 28KT 3548 8863

Local storm report, Nov 3, 4:53 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
453 PM CDT SAT NOV 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             WHEATLEY                34.92N 91.11W
11/03/2012  E0.50 INCH       ST. FRANCIS        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED BY A SPOTTER IN WHEATLEY
            ARKANSAS.

0445 PM     HAIL             BEMIS                   35.58N 88.83W
11/03/2012  E0.50 INCH       MADISON            TN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DIME SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED IN BEMIS BY COOPERATIVE
            OBSERVER.

0448 PM     HAIL             WHEATLEY                34.92N 91.11W
11/03/2012  E0.88 INCH       ST. FRANCIS        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED BY A SPOTTER IN
            WHEATLEY.

0448 PM     HAIL             WHEATLEY                34.92N 91.11W
11/03/2012  E0.50 INCH       ST. FRANCIS        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY A SPOTTER IN WHEATLEY.

&&

JLH

Local storm report, Nov 3, 4:59 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
459 PM CDT SAT NOV 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             PALESTINE               34.97N 90.90W
11/03/2012  E0.88 INCH       ST. FRANCIS        AR   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG COUNTY ROAD AND ROUTE 107
            IN PALESTINE.

&&

JLH

Special weather statement, Nov 3, 5:02 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
502 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

ARZ035-036-048-032230-
CRITTENDEN AR-CROSS AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
502 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR...

  CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER JENNETTE AT 502 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CRITTENDEN...CROSS AND ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 9027 3504 9028 3503 9030 3497 9066
      3520 9067
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 267DEG 23KT 3518 9039

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 3, 5:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Tunica	48 min
Nov 3, 5:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	DeSoto, Marshall	48 min
Nov 3, 6:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	DeSoto, Tunica	32 min
Nov 3, 6:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Tunica	51 min
Nov 3, 6:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Marshall	44 min
Nov 3, 6:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	DeSoto	34 min
Nov 3, 6:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Benton	45 min
Nov 3, 3:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Haywood	35 min
Nov 3, 3:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Haywood, Madison	36 min
Nov 3, 3:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Fayette	31 min
Nov 3, 4:22 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Chester	38 min
Nov 3, 4:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Hardeman	29 min
Nov 3, 4:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Fayette, Hardeman	39 min
Nov 3, 4:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Carroll	36 min
Nov 3, 4:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Shelby	25 min
Nov 3, 4:52 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Chester	38 min
Nov 3, 4:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Shelby	36 min
Nov 3, 4:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Shelby	23 min
Nov 3, 5:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Hardeman, McNairy	50 min
Nov 3, 5:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Fayette	43 min
Nov 3, 5:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Fayette, Shelby	22 min
Nov 3, 5:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Hardin	41 min
Nov 3, 5:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Shelby	50 min
Nov 3, 5:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Fayette, Hardeman	52 min
Nov 3, 6:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Chester, Hardeman, McNairy	47 min
Nov 3, 4:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	St. Francis	45 min
Nov 3, 4:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee, St. Francis	27 min
Nov 3, 5:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee, St. Francis	37 min
Nov 3, 5:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Crittenden	25 min
Nov 3, 5:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Lee, St. Francis	37 min
Nov 3, 5:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Lee	49 min
Nov 3, 6:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Phillips	48 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.