Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE REMAIN CHANCES OF CONVECTION
EACH PERIOD...AND ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

MORNING CONVECTION DID MOVE EAST OUT OF THE CWA...AND WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON
HAS BEEN A LULL FOR CONVECTION BEFORE THE NEXT MCV MOVES FROM OK
AND TO THE EAST...OR SOME ISOLATED BUILDS UP DURING THE HEAT OF
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS DID THIN THIS AFTERNOON AND SEEING GOOD
DIFFERENT HEATING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW AR NEAR KFYV TO NEAR
KCCA TO NEAR OF KMEM. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER TO MID
90S WITH DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 70 SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE
TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT.
LAST HOUR HAVE SEEN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM NEAR KRUE. OF
COURSE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

WILL INCLUDE SEVERE MENTION THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z FOR THIS REGION
OF THE STATE WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH NEW
TOR WATCH 345 IN EFFECT THROUGH 04Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

IN THE FIRST PERIOD WILL KEEP CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THE
FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER NORTH TO NORTH CENTRAL
AR. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING AN MCV
TO MOVE ACROSS AR LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH AR...WHILE CHANCE OVER NORTHERN
AR THIS EVENING...THEN UP POPS A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EXPECTED BOUNDARY AND UPPER SHORT WAVE. CHANCES OF CONVECTION
CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE MCV MOVES EAST AND THE BOUNDARY STALLS
OVER NORTHERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AR. MODELS SAG THE BOUNDARY SOUTH A
BIT LATER MONDAY TO TUESDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IF THIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LITTLE PUSH WITH WEAK NW UPPER FLOW...AS
WELL AS WEAKENING BOUNDARY SUPPORT. POPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY BUT A BIT LOWER. TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES DRIFT A BIT MORE SOUTH WITH LATEST MODEL
RUNS...DRIFTING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW
FAR THIS WILL GO. CURRENT TRENDS WILL KEEP THIS BUT FINE TINING
WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT IN THOSE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST...ALLOWING A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO SHIFT
EAST AS WELL. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD AS ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES
THAT WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
ANY UPPER IMPULSES IN THE DEPARTING N/NW UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST AS TO NOT SPARK OFF ANY PRECIP IN THE CWA. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES HOWEVER AS THE GFS ALLOWS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD BENEATH THE RIDGE...WHICH IN TURN DOES CREATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SAT. AGAIN...SIDED WITH THE DRIER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  89  67  86 /  40  40  20  20
CAMDEN AR         70  91  71  91 /  10  20  30  30
HARRISON AR       68  88  66  85 /  60  40  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  91  72  89 /  10  30  30  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  90  71  89 /  20  30  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     72  92  72  90 /  10  20  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      71  91  68  88 /  10  30  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  67  88  66  86 /  60  40  10  10
NEWPORT AR        68  90  68  87 /  40  40  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     71  91  71  89 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  89  70  88 /  20  30  20  20
SEARCY AR         70  90  69  87 /  20  40  20  20
STUTTGART AR      72  91  71  88 /  20  30  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH ARKANSAS TODAY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51

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