Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN NORTH ARKANSAS. MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

UPDATE...
MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION AS NOW DIED DOWN ACROSS THE
CWA. RADAR SHOWS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST AND A
AN ISOLATED STORM IN CENTRAL AR. AS SUCH HAVE ENDED THE TOR WATCH
AND UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE REMAIN CHANCES OF CONVECTION
EACH PERIOD...AND ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

MORNING CONVECTION DID MOVE EAST OUT OF THE CWA...AND WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON
HAS BEEN A LULL FOR CONVECTION BEFORE THE NEXT MCV MOVES FROM OK
AND TO THE EAST...OR SOME ISOLATED BUILDS UP DURING THE HEAT OF
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS DID THIN THIS AFTERNOON AND SEEING GOOD
DIFFERENT HEATING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW AR NEAR KFYV TO NEAR
KCCA TO NEAR OF KMEM. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER TO MID
90S WITH DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 70 SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE
TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT.
LAST HOUR HAVE SEEN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM NEAR KRUE. OF
COURSE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

WILL INCLUDE SEVERE MENTION THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z FOR THIS REGION
OF THE STATE WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH NEW
TOR WATCH 345 IN EFFECT THROUGH 04Z.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

IN THE FIRST PERIOD WILL KEEP CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THE
FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER NORTH TO NORTH CENTRAL
AR. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING AN MCV
TO MOVE ACROSS AR LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH AR...WHILE CHANCE OVER NORTHERN
AR THIS EVENING...THEN UP POPS A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EXPECTED BOUNDARY AND UPPER SHORT WAVE. CHANCES OF CONVECTION
CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE MCV MOVES EAST AND THE BOUNDARY STALLS
OVER NORTHERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AR. MODELS SAG THE BOUNDARY SOUTH A
BIT LATER MONDAY TO TUESDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IF THIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LITTLE PUSH WITH WEAK NW UPPER FLOW...AS
WELL AS WEAKENING BOUNDARY SUPPORT. POPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY BUT A BIT LOWER. TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES DRIFT A BIT MORE SOUTH WITH LATEST MODEL
RUNS...DRIFTING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW
FAR THIS WILL GO. CURRENT TRENDS WILL KEEP THIS BUT FINE TINING
WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT IN THOSE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST...ALLOWING A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO SHIFT
EAST AS WELL. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD AS ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES
THAT WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
ANY UPPER IMPULSES IN THE DEPARTING N/NW UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST AS TO NOT SPARK OFF ANY PRECIP IN THE CWA. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES HOWEVER AS THE GFS ALLOWS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD BENEATH THE RIDGE...WHICH IN TURN DOES CREATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SAT. AGAIN...SIDED WITH THE DRIER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  67  86  63 /  40  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         91  72  90  68 /  20  30  30  20
HARRISON AR       88  66  85  61 /  40  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  72  89  67 /  30  30  30  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  71  89  66 /  30  30  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     92  72  90  68 /  20  30  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      90  68  88  67 /  30  30  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  66  86  61 /  40  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        90  68  87  64 /  40  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     91  71  89  67 /  20  30  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   89  70  88  65 /  30  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         90  69  87  65 /  40  30  20  10
STUTTGART AR      91  71  88  66 /  30  30  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1146 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1146 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1249 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

ARZ007-040620-
SHARP AR-
1249 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SHARP COUNTY UNTIL 115 AM
CDT...

AT 1245 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF HWY 354 AND 58...OR 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ASH FLAT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ASH FLAT...           BALLARD...            POUGHKEEPSIE...
  NELSONVILLE...        EVENING SHADE...      CENTER...
  STREET LAKE...        HWY 354 AND 58...     CATFISH LAKE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3620 9134 3606 9134 3598 9135 3609 9168
      3625 9168 3625 9152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0549Z 297DEG 25KT 3615 9147

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     HAIL             MOUNTAIN HOME           36.34N 92.38W
06/04/2012  E1.25 INCH       BAXTER             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1243 AM     HAIL             MOUNTAIN HOME           36.34N 92.38W
06/04/2012  E1.75 INCH       BAXTER             AR   PUBLIC

&&

51

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