Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1239 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WHICH
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TEMPORARILY. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX RIDING OVER A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL
LIKELY BE THE SOURCE OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS
THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/

AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AND ANOTHER MCS IS
MOVING ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS. NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE MOST
AFFECTED BY THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FCST WL BE ONGOING CONVECTION
ACRS NRN/WRN AR AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY. SCTD TO NUMEROUS STORMS
REFORMED ALONG OLD FNTL BNDRY ACRS NRN AR EARLY THIS MRNG.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS WAS NOTED OVER ERN OK/NWRN AR.
BASED ON SAT AND RADAR DATA...APPEARS THAT AN MCV HAS FORMED OVR
NERN OK AND EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE EWD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

CURRENT THINKING IS TO HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING THIS MRNG FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND
WITH STORMS LATER THIS MRNG. WENT WITH SCTD POPS ACRS THE FA THIS
AFTN DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EXACT LOCATIONS OF MESOSCALE
BNDRY/S AS A FOCUS STORM REDEVELOPMENT.

THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT LATER IN
THE PD TAKING THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY SLOLY SWD THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH LINGERING SHRA/TSRA CHCS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.
THE BNDRY SHLD PUSH S OF AR TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRIER CONDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  66  86  62 /  60  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         92  70  90  67 /  20  40  30  20
HARRISON AR       85  66  85  60 /  50  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  70  89  66 /  50  30  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  70  89  65 /  60  20  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     91  70  90  67 /  30  30  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      90  67  88  66 /  50  30  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  87  66  86  60 /  50  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        89  66  87  63 /  60  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     90  70  89  66 /  50  30  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  69  88  64 /  60  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         90  68  87  64 /  60  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      90  70  88  65 /  60  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
100 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A MESOSCALE COMPLEX VORTEX RIDING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL BE THE SOURCE FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE UP THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WALDRON TO BATESVILLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN BY MID WEEK...BRINGING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51/61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
742 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E FAIRFIELD BAY       35.61N 92.23W
06/03/2012                   CLEBURNE           AR   PUBLIC

            TREES WERE DOWN IN THE GREERS FERRY LAKE AREA. A TREE
            LIMB FELL ON TO A POWER LINE. TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN
            THE DEVILS FORK RECREATION AREA.

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
744 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E FAIRFIELD BAY       35.61N 92.23W
06/03/2012                   CLEBURNE           AR   PUBLIC

            TREES WERE DOWN IN THE GREERS FERRY LAKE AREA. A TREE
            LIMB FELL ON TO A POWER LINE. TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN
            THE DEVILS FORK RECREATION AREA.

&&
CORRECTED TIME.

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
112 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHIRLEY                 35.64N 92.31W
06/03/2012                   VAN BUREN          AR   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THOUSANDS OF TREES WERE SNAPPED OFF, UPROOTED, AND/OR
            BLOWN DOWN WITHIN A SEVEN MILE RADIUS OF SHIRLEY. SEVERAL
            TREES FELL ON HOUSES. SHINGLES WERE TAKEN OFF ROOFS AND
            METAL OFF OF BARNS. OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED AND A
            VEHICLE WAS TRAPPED BY FALLEN POWERLINES. NO INJURIES
            WERE REPORTED. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 MPH. A SPECIAL
            THANKS GOES OUT TO COUNTY JUDGE ROGER HOOPER FOR HIS
            ASSISTANCE WITH THIS NWS STORM SURVEY.

&&

61

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
114 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

ARZ032-039-043-044-041900-
FAULKNER AR-PERRY AR-PULASKI AR-SALINE AR-
114 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SALINE...WESTERN
PULASKI...EASTERN PERRY AND SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER COUNTIES UNTIL 200
PM CDT...

AT 112 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRUSHY MTN...OR 12 MILES WEST OF LAKE
MAUMELLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WEST LITTLE ROCK...   MAUMELLE...           LAKE MAUMELLE...
  WILLIAMS JUNCTION...  ROLAND...             PINNACLE MTN...
  MAYFLOWER...          LITTLE ITALY...       LAKE SYLVIA...
  CHENAL VALLEY...      WYE MTN...            WYE...
  REFORM...             PARON...              PALARM...
  NATURAL STEPS...      WILFORD PEAK...       SHINALL MTN...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 135 AND 142.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 430 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 6 AND 10.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3499 9239 3474 9237 3476 9286 3492 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 266DEG 15KT 3484 9275

57