Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
226 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...
WE ARE BASICALLY IN A WAIT AND SEE MODE FOR WHEN/IF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL INITIATE.  19Z RADAR IMAGE SHOWS TWO BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
AREA...FIRST ONE WAS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK WHICH WAS ORIENTED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE SECOND ONE LOCATED OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS ORIENTED NORTH/SOUTH. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OFFICE TOWER CAMERA ARE SHOWING CU FIELD TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WHILE SKIES ARE TRYING TO CLEAR IMMEDIATELY
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.  THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
DYNAMICS TO HELP SHARPEN THE DRYLINE AND PUSH IT EAST SO FEEL THAT
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH FURTHER EAST.
DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE ACTUALLY
BEEN SLOWLY RISING AS EVAPORATION TAKES PLACE FROM THE RAINFALL
YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP TO SHARPEN UP THE BOUNDARY A BIT.
19Z RUC RUN KEEPS KLBB CAPPED ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF THE CAP IS NOT
INSURMOUNTABLE AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO TRY AND BREAK
OUT CONVECTION.  THUS...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH
MAIN THREATS LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AS WELL AS DAMAGING
WINDS... BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE.

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL HINGE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION.  DRYLINE TOMORROW MAY TRY TO PUSH A BIT FURTHER
EAST TOMORROW BUT POOR HANDLE OF THE DRYLINE LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN
THE MODELS MAKE ME A BIT SUSPICIOUS OF WHERE IT MAY BE LOCATED
TOMORROW.  IF THE WIND DOES INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DRYLINE MAY JUMP INTO THE LOW/MID 90S WHILE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
80S.  ALSO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LOW END OF SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE A
BIT OF INSTABILITY EAST OF THE DRYLINE ALTHOUGH CAP STRENGTH MAY
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION FOR TOMORROW.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...

AN UA LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO NEAR THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THUS
PROMOTING THE SHARPENING OF SW FLOW ALOFT. AS SUCH...THE DRYLINE
WILL BE A PROMINENT MESOSCALE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. FORECAST MODELS HINT AT QPF ALONG THE DRYLINE /LOCATED OFF
THE CAPROCK/ TOMORROW NIGHT...AS AN IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. FORECAST SOLUTIONS DISPLAYED ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...PWATS AOA 1.00 INCH AND SFC AND MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY/CAPE OF APPROXIMATELY 1200 J/KG ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED MOISTENED
MID-LEVELS...LOW LEVELS APPEAR RELATIVELY DRY. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO ADD MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS NEAREST TO THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MAY JUST BE THE SYNOPTIC SPARK
TO INITIATE STORMS. BY THURSDAY THE UA LOW WILL BE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE HINTS OF CI JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH IS SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED
ON THE CAPROCK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN
THE FLOW ALOFT BRUSHING THE FAR SERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT COULD
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A PRECIP MENTION ATTM...AS BEST INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO BE SE OF THE FA.

THEREAFTER...UA RIDGING WILL COMMENCE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
FRI-SAT AS LACK OF PRECIP DESPITE A LINGERING DRYLINE SUGGESTS A
DECENT CAPPING INVERSION AT PLAY. WILL HOWEVER NEED TO MONITOR LATER
MODEL RUNS AS TEMPS IN THE 90S MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP...AND
INITIATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UA RIDGE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...THANKS TO A NW PACIFIC UA LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN /THIS IS A RADICAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN/. HINTS OF
CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE STATE LINE ALONG THE DRYLINE
SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING IS DISPLAYED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN SILENT POPS ATTM SINCE NEXT MONDAY
IS DAY 7 AND AS MENTIONED...A LOT OF THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ALLOW DRIER AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE...TO FILTER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TEMPS APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WILL PROMOTE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT...AS 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS NEAR/SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 MPH. AS A
RESULT...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR...AND A MENTION BEYOND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY BE
WARRANTED. ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR MAY WHERE AND HOW MUCH EXPECTED
RAINFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE TODAY...WHICH COULD PROMOTE GREENUP
AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THAN ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  91  55  88  53 /  30   0   0   0   0
TULIA         60  92  58  90  55 /  40  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     61  93  59  91  57 /  40  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     61  92  59  93  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       63  92  61  94  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   59  94  58  93  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  59  94  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     64  92  64  94  62 /  40  20  20  10  10
SPUR          66  91  62  94  60 /  40  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     68  91  64  97  63 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

14/29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

TXZ021>044-011730-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1220 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE
WHICH WILL MOVE TO NEAR A FRIONA...LITTLEFIELD...TO BROWNFIELD
LINE BY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO
TENNIS BALL SIZE. CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRE DANGER MAY BECOME ELEVATED TO CRITICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

JORDAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
510 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             2 N POST                33.22N 101.38W
04/30/2012  E1.00 INCH       GARZA              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WINDSHIELD BROKEN OUT BY HAIL ON 207 NORTH OF POST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200227

SRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
529 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             2 W KALGARY             33.41N 101.18W
04/30/2012  E1.00 INCH       CROSBY             TX   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY KCBD...ALONG CROSBY GARZA COUNTY LINE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200228

SRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
534 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HAIL             10 ENE POST             33.25N 101.22W
04/30/2012  M2.00 INCH       GARZA              TX   SKYWARN SPOTTER

            HALF MILE WIDE SWATH OF HAIL AT HIGHWAY 380 AND 208.
            LARGEST HAIL MEASURED AT 2 INCHES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200229

SRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
543 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             2 N POST                33.22N 101.38W
04/30/2012  E2.75 INCH       GARZA              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WINDSHIELD BROKEN OUT BY HAIL ON 207 NORTH OF POST.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200227

SRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
545 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     HAIL             10 SE POST              33.09N 101.26W
04/30/2012  E0.88 INCH       GARZA              TX   SCHOOL OFFICIAL

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL ALONG 84.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200230

SRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
549 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             10 NE JUSTICEBURG       33.15N 101.08W
04/30/2012  M1.00 INCH       GARZA              TX   STORM CHASER

            REPORTED 10 MILES NORTH OF POLAR COMMUNITY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200231

SRC