Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Lubbock, TX

305 
WWUS54 KLUB 300641
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
141 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012

TXC169-300650-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-120430T0700Z/
GARZA TX-
141 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GARZA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF GARZA COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3296 10104 3331 10103 3333 10060 3296 10060
TIME...MOT...LOC 0640Z 280DEG 20KT 3307 10090

$$

TXC263-300700-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-120430T0700Z/
KENT TX-
141 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KENT COUNTY
UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 137 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF LAKE ALAN HENRY...OR 24 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF JAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF KENT COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10104 3331 10103 3333 10060 3296 10060
TIME...MOT...LOC 0640Z 280DEG 20KT 3307 10090

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012

.UPDATE...
A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
EDGING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...STORMS CONTINUE TO
IMPRESS THOUGH SLOWLY DECLINING IN INTENSITY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
CLOSE WATCH EARLY THIS MORNING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATELY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RIDE EASTWARD ALONG AN
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF KLBB...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST ONE
FINAL THUNDERSTORM WILL BRUSH CLOSE TO KLBB BEFORE TRENDING DOWN
THOUGH A STRONGER CELL 35-40 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST WILL NEED
MONITORING AS WELL. ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PROGRESS INTO ROLLING PLAINS THOUGH MID LEVELS MOISTENING ENOUGH
FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AROUND KCDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TEMPO -TSRA AT
KCDS THROUGH 10Z. AFTERWARDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER RETURN OF
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MOSTLY MFVR CIGS AT BOTH SITES
BEFORE LIFTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES BEST
CONVECTIVE SIGNALS LATE MONDAY NEAR KCDS TO JUST EAST OF KLBB.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012/

AVIATION...
CURRENTLY MODESTLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ABOUT 35 MILES
WEST OF KLBB MAY DRIFT CLOSE TO OR JUST NORTH OF KLBB IN THE NEXT
ONE TO TWO HOURS...WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE AND ADD AS PREVAILING OR
TEMPO GROUP IF IT GETS ANY NEARER. SOLUTIONS INDICATE KCDS SHOULD
SEE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER AS WELL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WE HAVE RETAINED VICINITY THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW. LOWER
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MOISTEN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH DECENT CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING...WHICH SHOULD BREAK UP AGAIN AROUND
MIDDAY MONDAY. ADDED PROB30 THUNDER FOR KCDS VERY LATE IN TAF
PERIOD TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012/

SHORT TERM...
FEATURES OF SIGNIFICANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RETREATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...STRETCHING FROM SW OK INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE AT 19Z FROM LAWTON TO SNYDER TO SEMINOLE. ALSO
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP WITH MIXING ACROSS SE NM NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH PUSH EASTWARD LIKELY TOWARD THE SW SOUTH PLAINS. BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
INTERSECTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES...IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ISOLATED CELL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE ANDREWS-SEMINOLE-LAMESA AREA MID AFTERNOON ALONG
THE NORTHWARD RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST WEAK
SUPERCELL/MULTI-CELL CLUSTER ACTIVITY PROPAGATING E-NEWD INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...VICINITY JAYTON-ASPERMONT TOWARD 00Z. FEEL
THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP
FARTHER NORTH TOWARD LUBBOCK. MODELS HAVEN'T BEEN TOO OPTIMISTIC
ABOUT THIS IDEA HOWEVER. GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND AT LEAST 2000
MLCAPE...COULD SEE SOME 1-2 INCH HAIL REPORTS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S
STORMS.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING IN AREA OF STRONGER
FORCING IN RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...IN AREA OF INCREASING LIFT ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT...AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT TOWARD 06Z. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE LUB
CWA...ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY IF STORMS MANAGE TO
DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE 06Z-10Z TIME
FRAME...WITH A QUICKER BURN OFF TOMORROW. SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MONDAY GIVEN FLAT SLIGHTLY WEAKER...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT MUCH OF AREA MAY REMAIN WEAKLY CAPPED IN LIGHT SLY FLOW
REGIME.  JAMES

LONG TERM...
MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSRA ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE WITH BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
AND WRN OKLAHOMA POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CHILDRESS AREA NEAR
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE THE
WEEK AHEAD LOOKS UNEVENTFUL IF NOT HOT AND DRY. DRYLINE PROGGED TO
MOVE TO THE ROLLING PLAINS OR FARTHER EAST EACH AFTN. BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FCST AREA WILL COME TUESDAY AFTN WITH THE
DRYLINE LIKELY STAYING FARTHEST WEST THAT DAY BUT CAP STRENGTH
WILL BE A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD SEE THE
DRYLINE SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE
ADDED LIMITING EFFECT OF A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. MOS TEMPS LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM...THAT IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SEASONAL NORMS AND THE WARMEST DAY LOOKING TO BE FRIDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE IN FORCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  55  89  52  88 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         85  59  91  56  91 /  10  20  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     86  62  92  58  91 /  10  20  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     89  61  93  58  92 /  10  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       89  62  94  61  92 /  10  20  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   89  59  92  59  93 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    90  62  94  59  92 /  10  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     85  62  94  63  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
SPUR          86  63  95  61  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     88  65  92  64  94 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/99/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1117 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

TXZ021>044-301630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1117 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A
DRYLINE AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY
MID AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING. GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1129 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 PM     FLOOD            3 SW WOLFFORTH          33.48N 102.04W
04/29/2012                   LUBBOCK            TX   SKYWARN SPOTTER

            REPORT OF 2.5 FEET OF WATER OVER U.S. HIGHWAY 62 AND
            82. WATER WAS FLOWING ACROSS THE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200215

JD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

TXZ028-029-034-035-300515-
HALE-HOCKLEY-LAMB-LUBBOCK-
1137 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HOCKLEY...LUBBOCK...LAMB  AND
HALE  COUNTIES...

AT 1133 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 22 MILES WEST OF ABERNATHY...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3397 10177 3355 10177 3369 10231 3383 10232
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 275DEG 18KT 3378 10220

JDV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1155 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 PM     HAIL             TAHOKA                  33.16N 101.79W
04/29/2012  M1.75 INCH       LYNN               TX   STORM CHASER

            GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED IN TAHOKA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200216

SRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1232 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012

TXZ036-037-300600-
CROSBY-DICKENS-
1232 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CROSBY  AND DICKENS  COUNTIES...

AT 1228 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF DICKENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3362 10115 3383 10115 3384 10096 3384 10067
      3352 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 0532Z 207DEG 21KT 3365 10101

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1233 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 AM     FLOOD            1 SE SOUTHLAND          33.35N 101.54W
04/30/2012                   GARZA              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER COVERING US HIGHWAY 84 SUCH THAT TRACTOR TRAILERS
            UNABLE TO PASS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200217

JDV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1245 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012

TXZ028-034-300615-
HOCKLEY-LAMB-
1245 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HOCKLEY  AND LAMB  COUNTIES...

AT 1242 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF LITTLEFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 3404 10209 3366 10208 3379 10242 3398 10240
TIME...MOT...LOC 0545Z 284DEG 21KT 3386 10232