Tornado Warning 71, NWS Louisville, KY

916 
WWUS53 KLMK 022251 RRA
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
451 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYC001-009-087-169-022300-
/O.CON.KLMK.TO.W.0071.000000T0000Z-120302T2300Z/
METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-BARREN KY-GREEN KY-
451 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GREEN...EASTERN BARREN...WESTERN ADAIR AND CENTRAL
METCALFE COUNTIES...

AT 449 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED ROTATION AND GOLF 
BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR EDMONTON. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
NELL...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  EDMONTON...
  COLUMBIA...
  GADBERRY AND GARLIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3688 8582 3702 8590 3722 8528 3701 8519
      3698 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 250DEG 53KT 3704 8549

$$

AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

.Short Term (This Afternoon - Tomorrow)...
Updated at 312 PM EST Mar 2 2012

...Severe Weather Outbreak Threat continues in the Ohio Valley this
Afternoon and Evening with PDS Tornado Watch 58 in effect until 9 PM
EST/8 PM CST...

The warm front pushed through the forecast area earlier this
morning, raising temperatures into the 70s. The center of surface
low pressure is located in eastern IL/western IN. The pressure
gradient has strengthened substantially, pushing southerly gradient
wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Expect this to continue ahead of the
cold front until that frontal boundary moves through.

The environment continues to destabilize as the surface low edges
closer. Latest SBCAPE from SPC mesoscale analysis page indicates
2500 J/kg placed squarely across the forecast area. Additionally,
the environment is strongly sheared, with 0-3km SR helicity over 400
m2/s2. Deep moisture is somewhat limited, but this will help support
discrete cells. As a result, anything that develops will quickly go
severe. This is evident across southern IN at this time. Significant
tornadoes are possible with this activity.

The potential remains for a squall line to develop along the cold
front, which will move through the area later this afternoon and
early this evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but
there will also be the lingering QLCS tornado threat, mainly
associated with bowing segments and line breaks, as well as the
possible embedded supercell.

From late evening onward storms should come to an end, with much
cooler air filtering in. Overnight lows will dip into the mid/upper
30s. Expect a dry day Saturday, with temperatures only ranging from
the mid 40s across the north to low 50s across the south.

.Long Term (Saturday Night through Friday)...
Updated at 312 PM EST Mar 2 2012

This section is largely unchanged from the previous forecast. Only
subtle changes were made.

Saturday Night - Monday...

Amplified trough axis will slide over the region Saturday night,
bringing increasing low level cloud cover, especially across the
northern portions of the CWA. Temperatures will likely drop into the
upper 20s and lower 30s. Mid level pattern will transition to a
northwest flow scenario as trough axis scoots east through Sunday.
With steepening low and mid level lapse rates and increasing depth
of moisture, expect to see scattered rain or snow showers during the
morning hours on Sunday along and north of I 64. Further south
should be just rain showers. Surface temperatures will likely warm
to the lower 40s north, upper 40s south by midday with any snow
shower chances changing to rain. Not expecting any accumulation in
the morning due to warm surfaces.

Sunday night and the first half of Monday could be interesting as
some of the forecast models indicate a strong wave and its
associated surface reflection (clipper) sliding across the Ohio
Valley. Precipitation would likely begin as rain or a rain/snow mix
and transition to all snow through Sunday evening. At this point,
not expecting much in the way of impacts from this system but it
will be one to keep an eye on as some models are quite robust with
QPF. Best chance at this point is along and north of I-64 through
midday Monday. Lows Sunday night will be in the 28-33 degree range
with Monday highs in the low and mid 40s.

Monday Night - Friday...

Weather will turn quite nice through mid week as upper level ridging
and surface high pressure dominate. Expect mostly clear skies with
temperatures warming to the mid and upper 50s by Tuesday. Wednesday
and Thursday will likely see the mercury in the 60s. Lows in the 25
to 30 degree range Monday night will warm to the upper 30s to around
40 Tuesday night and into the mid 40s Wednesday night. A frontal
boundary looks to set up along baroclinic zone from the Great Lakes
to the southern Plains on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms should
stay mostly north and west of the CWA, however will mention at least
a small chance of precipitation along northwestern CWA Thursday
afternoon. Greater chances will occur Thursday night and through
Friday as a cold front swings through the Ohio Valley.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 1200 pm EST Mar 2 2012

Well...the WAA precipitation is coming to an end...with the warm
front north of SDF but not through LEX yet. For the next couple of
hours we will wait for storms to develop in the warm se tor and the
nasty storms over SE MO and Srn IL to progress east into a line this
evening.

South winds will increase with the passage of the warm front, with
gusts close to 30 kt expected this afternoon.

The atmosphere is becoming primed...with soundings showing LIS of -7
to -9...CAPES around 2000 J/KG and 500 mb jet moving in increase SRH
into the highest categories.  For now will put in storms based on
the latest WRF model and adjust as necessary  Airport personnel
should be prepared for possible tornado warnings between 20-02z.
Will include TEMPO groups for a 3-hr window, but expect it to
actually last an hour or less. While it will probably go down to IFR
at the height of the storm, expect that to last only a few minutes
so it is better covered with MVFR.

West winds will stay up for a couple hours after the evening fropa,
but should decouple around midnight. The 24-30 hr period at SDF does
include stronger winds and gusts as mixing resumes mid-morning
Saturday.

After the evening fropa the storms will exit to the east, giving way
to west winds and unrestricted ceiling/vis.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......RAS/AL/MJP
Long Term........BJS/MJP
Aviation.........JDG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1129 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-031630-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1129 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012 /1029 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED IN THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARDS
OHIO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST TIMING OF THESE STORMS WILL BE AFTER
2 OR 3 PM EST OVER WEST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...AROUND THE 3 TO 5 PM EST NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR...AND
LASTING THROUGH ROUGHLY 8 OR 9PM EST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS
REGION.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. IN
ADDITION...SOME TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW TORNADOES BECOMING VERY STRONG AND LONG-LIVED. SEVERE
WEATHER COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE OUTLOOK AREA...BUT THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF THE
BLUEGRASS PARKWAY.

A SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I 64 CORRIDOR.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE I-64 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE EXTREMELY NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
REPORT INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND OF COURSE FUNNEL
CLOUDS OR TORNADOES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE
OR LOCAL MEDIA AND LAW ENFORCEMENT.

AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
524 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             GEORGETOWN              38.20N  84.55W
03/02/2012  M1.75 INCH       SCOTT              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

0523 PM     TSTM WND GST     GEORGETOWN              38.20N  84.55W
03/02/2012  M60 MPH          SCOTT              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200252
EVENT NUMBER LMK1200253

SZAPPANOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
526 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             GEORGETOWN              38.20N  84.55W
03/02/2012  M1.00 INCH       SCOTT              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200254

CMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
527 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     HAIL             4 N LAWRENCEBURG        38.09N  84.89W
03/02/2012  M1.75 INCH       ANDERSON           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200257

SZAPPANOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
528 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             EDMONTON                36.98N  85.62W
03/02/2012  M0.88 INCH       METCALFE           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200258

CMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
529 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             BRYANTSVILLE            37.72N  84.65W
03/02/2012  M1.75 INCH       GARRARD            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200259

CMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
530 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S STANFORD            37.50N  84.66W
03/02/2012                   LINCOLN            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200261

CMC