Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
544 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

.Update...
Issued at 537 PM EST Mar 2 2012

Regional outbreak of severe weather continues across much of central
Kentucky this afternoon.  The good news is that the actual frontal
boundary is pushing into the northwest and western portions of the
CWA at the moment and this will effectively end the threat of severe
weather.  After coordination with SPC, we will be dropping the
tornado watch from our southern Indiana counties around 600 PM.  We
also likely cut some of our KY counties along and just south of the
Ohio River with this update and this will include the metro
Louisville area.

Severe convection with all modes of severe weather will continue
across our central and eastern sections this evening.
Tornadoes...large hail and damaging winds will be possible in areas
along and east of I-65 for the next several hours.

.Short Term (This Afternoon - Tomorrow)...
Updated at 312 PM EST Mar 2 2012

...Severe Weather Outbreak Threat continues in the Ohio Valley this
Afternoon and Evening with PDS Tornado Watch 58 in effect until 9 PM
EST/8 PM CST...

The warm front pushed through the forecast area earlier this
morning, raising temperatures into the 70s. The center of surface
low pressure is located in eastern IL/western IN. The pressure
gradient has strengthened substantially, pushing southerly gradient
wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Expect this to continue ahead of the
cold front until that frontal boundary moves through.

The environment continues to destabilize as the surface low edges
closer. Latest SBCAPE from SPC mesoscale analysis page indicates
2500 J/kg placed squarely across the forecast area. Additionally,
the environment is strongly sheared, with 0-3km SR helicity over 400
m2/s2. Deep moisture is somewhat limited, but this will help support
discrete cells. As a result, anything that develops will quickly go
severe. This is evident across southern IN at this time. Significant
tornadoes are possible with this activity.

The potential remains for a squall line to develop along the cold
front, which will move through the area later this afternoon and
early this evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but
there will also be the lingering QLCS tornado threat, mainly
associated with bowing segments and line breaks, as well as the
possible embedded supercell.

From late evening onward storms should come to an end, with much
cooler air filtering in. Overnight lows will dip into the mid/upper
30s. Expect a dry day Saturday, with temperatures only ranging from
the mid 40s across the north to low 50s across the south.

.Long Term (Saturday Night through Friday)...
Updated at 312 PM EST Mar 2 2012

This section is largely unchanged from the previous forecast. Only
subtle changes were made.

Saturday Night - Monday...

Amplified trough axis will slide over the region Saturday night,
bringing increasing low level cloud cover, especially across the
northern portions of the CWA. Temperatures will likely drop into the
upper 20s and lower 30s. Mid level pattern will transition to a
northwest flow scenario as trough axis scoots east through Sunday.
With steepening low and mid level lapse rates and increasing depth
of moisture, expect to see scattered rain or snow showers during the
morning hours on Sunday along and north of I 64. Further south
should be just rain showers. Surface temperatures will likely warm
to the lower 40s north, upper 40s south by midday with any snow
shower chances changing to rain. Not expecting any accumulation in
the morning due to warm surfaces.

Sunday night and the first half of Monday could be interesting as
some of the forecast models indicate a strong wave and its
associated surface reflection (clipper) sliding across the Ohio
Valley. Precipitation would likely begin as rain or a rain/snow mix
and transition to all snow through Sunday evening. At this point,
not expecting much in the way of impacts from this system but it
will be one to keep an eye on as some models are quite robust with
QPF. Best chance at this point is along and north of I-64 through
midday Monday. Lows Sunday night will be in the 28-33 degree range
with Monday highs in the low and mid 40s.

Monday Night - Friday...

Weather will turn quite nice through mid week as upper level ridging
and surface high pressure dominate. Expect mostly clear skies with
temperatures warming to the mid and upper 50s by Tuesday. Wednesday
and Thursday will likely see the mercury in the 60s. Lows in the 25
to 30 degree range Monday night will warm to the upper 30s to around
40 Tuesday night and into the mid 40s Wednesday night. A frontal
boundary looks to set up along baroclinic zone from the Great Lakes
to the southern Plains on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms should
stay mostly north and west of the CWA, however will mention at least
a small chance of precipitation along northwestern CWA Thursday
afternoon. Greater chances will occur Thursday night and through
Friday as a cold front swings through the Ohio Valley.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 543 pm EST Mar 2 2012

Regional severe weather outbreak continues across the forecast
area.  The main terminals that will be affected will be KBWG and
KLEX over the next few hours.  Surface cold front will be pushing
through KSDF within the next hour or so and winds will quickly shift
to the west/northwest. VFR conditions are expected at KSDF for the
remainder of this evening and into the overnight hours.
Strengthening pressure gradient will keep winds up at the terminals
this evening.  Surface winds of 15-25kt with gusts of up to 30-35kts
will be possible this evening, but winds should slacken a bit after
03/03-05Z.

Thunderstorms will clear the KBWG terminal by 03/00Z or so followed
by a wind shift to the west/northwest.  VFR conditions are expected
for much of the evening and into the overnight.  KLEX continue to
see strong storms through 03/00Z...but some scattered showers will
also be possible after 03/00Z till about 03/02Z or so.  Winds will
shift to the west/northwest and remain gusty until around 03/06Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........MJ
Short Term.......MP
Long Term........MP
Aviation.........MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1129 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-031630-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1129 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012 /1029 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED IN THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARDS
OHIO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST TIMING OF THESE STORMS WILL BE AFTER
2 OR 3 PM EST OVER WEST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...AROUND THE 3 TO 5 PM EST NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR...AND
LASTING THROUGH ROUGHLY 8 OR 9PM EST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS
REGION.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. IN
ADDITION...SOME TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW TORNADOES BECOMING VERY STRONG AND LONG-LIVED. SEVERE
WEATHER COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE OUTLOOK AREA...BUT THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF THE
BLUEGRASS PARKWAY.

A SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I 64 CORRIDOR.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE I-64 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE EXTREMELY NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
REPORT INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND OF COURSE FUNNEL
CLOUDS OR TORNADOES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE
OR LOCAL MEDIA AND LAW ENFORCEMENT.

AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
543 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             KIRKSVILLE              37.67N  84.42W
03/02/2012  M1.00 INCH       MADISON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200266

CMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
546 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             2 W RICHMOND            37.74N  84.33W
03/02/2012  M2.00 INCH       MADISON            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200267

SZAPPANOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
547 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             MUNFORDVILLE            37.28N  85.90W
03/02/2012  M2.75 INCH       HART               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200268

CMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
548 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             MUNFORDVILLE            37.28N  85.90W
03/02/2012  M2.75 INCH       HART               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200269

CMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
551 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 W BEREA               37.58N  84.33W
03/02/2012                   MADISON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200270

SZAPPANOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
552 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             JUNCTION CITY           37.59N  84.79W
03/02/2012  M1.75 INCH       BOYLE              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200271

CMC