Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
657 AM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

.Short Term (Today and Tonight)...
Updated at 330 AM EST Mar 2 2012

...Severe Weather Outbreak Likely in the Ohio Valley This
Afternoon and Evening...

Parameters continue to come together for significant severe weather
late this afternoon into this evening, but still some uncertainty
regarding the exact location and threat level.  Low pressure
continues to deepen over Oklahoma, with broad southerly low-level
flow ahead of it. Low-level jet has been slow to develop, and the
surface warm front is just north of the Tennessee/Alabama border as
of 07Z. There has been a smattering of precip along the warm front,
and recently some development along the KY/TN line, but dewpoints
there are still just clawing their way up to around 40F.

As the low-level jet strengthens, it will help the warm front blast
northward past the Ohio River later this morning, and the isentropic
lift will lead to rapid precip development over Kentucky. Elevated
instability will make it convective, and could yet support large
hail this morning.

Greater severe threat is in the afternoon, as the environment
destabilizes. Have gone with the warmer GFS MOS guidance due to
strong low-level warm advection with sfc winds near or above 20 kt.
Modifying forecast soundings for max temps in the lower/mid 70s, and
fairly conservative dewpoints in the mid 50s, yields 1000-2000 J/kg
of CAPE. Environment will also be strongly sheared, with 0-3km SR
helicity over 300 m2/s2 along the Ohio River, and over 400 in
south-central Kentucky. Deep moisture is somewhat limited, but that
will just help support discrete cells. As a result, anything that
develops will quickly go severe. Significant tornadoes are possible
with this activity.  Given the SW-NE orientation of the low-level
jet and the northward penetration of the warm front, the greatest
threat will likely be east of I-65 and south of the Bluegrass
Parkway.

Gradient winds this afternoon will be quite strong, exceeding 20 mph
for several hours. Gusts will generally be 30-35 mph, but there is a
brief window just ahead of the cold front where gusts could reach 40
mph. Given the short time span, and the severe weather threat that
will be coincident, have opted not to issue a wind advisory at this
time.

There is also the potential for a squall line to develop along the
cold front, which will move through the area late this afternoon and
early this evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but
there will also be the lingering QLCS tornado threat, mainly
associated with bowing segments and line breaks, as well as the
possible embedded supercell.

From late evening onward storms should come to an end, with much
cooler air filtering in. Overnight lows will dip into the mid/upper
30s.

.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
Updated at 315 AM EST Mar 2 2012

Saturday - Saturday Night...

Expect mostly clear skies by daybreak on Saturday as dry punch of
air in the mid levels and ridge of surface high pressure builds into
the region. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the cold front
and will struggle only to the mid and upper 40s in most locations.
Winds will be quite blustery our of the west between 15 and 25 mph,
gusting up around 30-35 mph. Amplified trough axis will slide over
the region Saturday night, bringing increasing low level cloud
cover, especially across the northern portions of the CWA.
Temperatures will likely drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Sunday - Monday...

Mid level pattern will transition to a northwest flow scenario as
trough axis scoots east through Sunday. With steepening low and mid
level lapse rates and increasing depth of moisture, expect to see
scattered rain or snow showers during the morning hours on Sunday
along and north of I 64. Further south should be just rain showers.
Surface temperatures will likely warm to the lower 40s north, upper
40s south by midday with any snow shower chances changing to rain.
Not expecting any accumulation in the morning due to warm surfaces.

Sunday night and the first half of Monday could be interesting as
some of the forecast models indicate a strong wave and its
associated surface reflection (clipper) sliding across the Ohio
Valley. Precipitation would likely begin as rain or a rain/snow mix
and transition to all snow through Sunday evening. At this point,
not expecting much in the way of impacts from this system but it
will be one to keep an eye on as some models are quite robust with
QPF. Best chance at this point is along and north of I-64 through
midday Monday. Lows Sunday night will be in the 28-33 degree range
with Monday highs in the low and mid 40s.

Monday Night - Thursday...

Weather will turn quite nice through mid week as upper level ridging
and surface high pressure dominate. Expect mostly clear skies with
temperatures warming to the mid and upper 50s by Tuesday. Wednesday
and Thursday will likely see the mercury in the 60s. Lows in the 25
to 30 degree range Monday night will warm to the upper 30s to around
40 Tuesday night and into the mid 40s Wednesday night. A frontal
boundary looks to set up along baroclinic zone from the Great Lakes
to the southern Plains on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms should
stay mostly north and west of the CWA, however will mention at least
a small chance of precipitation along northwestern CWA Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 645 AM EST Mar 2 2012

Warm front appears to be just south and west of BNA at press time,
and will blast north through Kentucky over the next few hours.
Convection has fired north of the warm front, with a few near-severe
hailers including one that passed near SDF within the past hour.

Believe that storms will continue to lift north, but not confident
enough of when any of the terminals will be affected to include more
than VCTS. Could briefly see MVFR if anything goes over the
airfield, and even IFR in cores, but that will be too brief for any
mention in the TAFs. South winds will increase with the passage of
the warm front, with gusts close to 30 kt expected this afternoon.

Convection will remain limited enough in coverage through the
afternoon that VCTS should cover the forecast. The exception will be
a couple hours either side of sunset, when a squall line is likely
to develop along or just ahead of the cold front. Will include TEMPO
groups for a 3-hr window, but expect it to actually last an hour or
less. While it will probably go down to IFR at the height of the
storm, expect that to last only a few minutes so it is better
covered with MVFR.

West winds will stay up for a couple hours after the evening fropa,
but should decouple around midnight. The 24-30 hr period at SDF does
include stronger winds and gusts as mixing resumes mid-morning
Saturday.

After the evening fropa the storms will exit to the east, giving way
to west winds and unrestricted ceiling/vis.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........BJS
Aviation.........RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
358 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-030900-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
358 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012 /258 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING COULD
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME SEVERE. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL
POSSIBLE...AND A FEW OF THE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG AND LONG-
LIVED. SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE OUTLOOK
AREA...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND
SOUTH OF THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY.

A SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE SQUALL LINE...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I 64 CORRIDOR.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE I 64 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAIL THAT OCCURS WITH THE
STORMS THIS MORNING. SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAS/BJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
607 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ054>056-066-067-021130-
BOYLE-CASEY-GARRARD-LINCOLN-MARION-
607 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
PENNY SIZE HAIL...

AT 602 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES EAST OF LEBANON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 60 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND PENNY SIZE HAIL...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  STANFORD...
  LANCASTER...
  DANVILLE...
  ALUM SPRINGS AND PARKSVILLE...
  JUNCTION CITY AND STUART POWELL FIELD AIRPORT...
  HEDGEVILLE AND HUBBLE...
  THREE FORKS AND BOURNE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 8442 3745 8511 3757 8515 3775 8462
      3774 8461 3775 8459 3774 8459 3773 8457
      3775 8455 3775 8454 3777 8454 3775 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 1107Z 252DEG 50KT 3754 8499

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ056-057-021215-
GARRARD-MADISON-
640 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...

AT 636 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LANCASTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  RICHMOND...
  LANCASTER...
  HACKLEY AND NINA...
  SILVER CREEK AND KIRKSVILLE...
  PEYTONTOWN AND CALEAST...
  TERRILL AND KINGSTON...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
83 AND 90.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 8409 3767 8409 3763 8412 3757 8458
      3761 8463 3765 8465 3786 8409 3785 8408
      3783 8410 3781 8407 3779 8407 3778 8410
      3777 8408 3775 8407
TIME...MOT...LOC 1140Z 254DEG 39KT 3763 8451

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
700 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INZ090-091-021230-
FLOYD-HARRISON-
700 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...

AT 659 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF CORYDON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  CORYDON...
  MOBERLY...
  RAMSEY...
  CRANDALL AND NEW SALISBURY...
  BYRNEVILLE AND LANESVILLE...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
105 AND 119.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3840 8593 3823 8585 3818 8629 3820 8631
      3821 8629 3822 8629 3822 8628 3827 8628
      3828 8627 3841 8598
TIME...MOT...LOC 1200Z 249DEG 34KT 3822 8625

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
748 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INZ077-090-092-021315-
CLARK-HARRISON-WASHINGTON-
748 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 742 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTH OF SALEM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF INCH
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  CHESTNUT HILL AND BORDEN...
  DAISY HILL AND BLUE RIVER...
  NEW LIBERTY AND BUNKER HILL...
  HENRYVILLE AND BLUE LICK...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
16 AND 19.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 8588 3858 8588 3858 8585 3856 8584
      3857 8581 3850 8566 3840 8596 3842 8600
      3842 8603 3838 8603 3835 8612 3846 8621
      3866 8599
TIME...MOT...LOC 1247Z 232DEG 31KT 3845 8604

AL

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