Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
711 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2012

Upper trough has been moving steadily east southeast today, with a
rough axis this hour from near KLOT to near KSTL. Storms have formed
out ahead of this trough across central Indiana, also out ahead of a
sharp dewpoint gradient along a cool front. Cumulus field over our
region is limited to roughly along and east of I-65. Still given
convergence along that sharp front moving into the region later this
afternoon, expect isolated to scattered storms developing and
pushing eastward. Limiting factor today compared to yesterday is the
amount of precipitable water available. Freezing level and wet bulb
zeroes are lower than at this time yesterday, so combining this
information with drier air in the column should allow for larger
hail to form today in addition to damaging winds. SPC mesonanalysis
page indicates highest K indices in the area where the cumulus field
has congested the most, just to our north. Given these threats, have
gone ahead with a severe thunderstorm watch over the north. Should
coverage become more widespread than current thinking, we can expand
this watch farther south.

Coverage should die down with loss of heating this evening. Have
forecast dry after midnight. Rest of the period should be dry as
well, as deeper moisture shifts away from the region in the wake of
that upper trough's passage. Temperatures Saturday and Saturday
night will be close to normal for late July.

.Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2012

After a dry mostly sunny Sunday, an active NW flow with multiple
shortwaves will dominate the pattern Mon/Tues with perhaps greater
instability and a stronger shortwave signal forecast for Mon Night
into early Tues.  Looks like this leading wave will be just ahead of
a sfc boundary according to the 12Z GFS/GFS ensembles.  The front is
a little less obvious in the 0Z ECMWF data.  So after an early round
of convection Tues, a consensus in model timing of the front
suggests another round of convection developing late Tues just ahead
of the front.  After the front passes through the area or washes out
Tues night/Wed, at least a couple of shortwaves look to remain in
the flow for Thurs/Fri.  The GFS is a bit more aggressive bringing
down another sfc front for later in the week.  Not real confident in
this front quite yet, but will allow 20-40% POPs in the forecast for
more diurnal based convection and the shortwave possibility which is
more probable at this point.

Temperatures in the long term period look to remain near normal or a
tad above normal.  High temps should top out in the upper 80s and
lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2012

Obviously the main issue here is the convection across southern
Indiana and northern Kentucky this evening.  By the time the TAFs
begin, the gust front from these storms will have already gone
through SDF and LEX, switching winds to the northwest at speeds
around 15kt gusting to 30kt (especially at SDF -- maybe a little
less at LEX).  Will account for TSRA and VRB gusty winds in the
first three hours of the northern TAFs.  BWG will not be affected.

After that, the rest of the forecast will be very quiet.  May need
to look out for some patchy fog towards dawn in areas where rain
falls this evening, but right now with a fropa expected around
sunrise will bank on the atmosphere being too mixy for much fog
production.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........AMS
Aviation.........13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
747 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-090>092-KYZ030>037-039>043-048-049-057-290300-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-
HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-ANDERSON KY-
WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
MADISON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...RICHMOND
747 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 /647 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 532 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE...STRONG WIND GUSTS...OR
HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
(ALL LOWER CASE)

INZ089-KYZ023>029-038-045>047-053>056-061>067-070>078-081-082-290300-
PERRY IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-
HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-SPENCER KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-
GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TELL CITY...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...BARDSTOWN...
SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...
COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
747 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 /647 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE...STRONG WIND GUSTS...OR
HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
(ALL LOWER CASE)

13

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