Severe Thunderstorm Warning 465, NWS Louisville, KY

691 
WWUS53 KLMK 270408
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1208 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

KYC017-049-097-181-270420-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0465.000000T0000Z-120727T0420Z/
NICHOLAS KY-BOURBON KY-CLARK KY-HARRISON KY-
1208 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1220 AM EDT
FOR EASTERN HARRISON...NORTHERN CLARK...EASTERN BOURBON AND NICHOLAS
COUNTIES...

AT 1205 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MORNING GLORY TO PLUM TO SEWELL SHOP...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  CARLISLE...
  ELLISVILLE AND WESTON...
  MYERS AND PLEASANT VALLEY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR POST YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 8398 3812 8407 3802 8401 3810 8418
      3816 8417 3843 8429 3844 8397 3842 8394
      3837 8391 3837 8388 3835 8385 3831 8383
TIME...MOT...LOC 0408Z 270DEG 30KT 3838 8411 3818 8400
          3802 8400
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

SCHOETTMER

599 
WWUS53 KLMK 270422
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1222 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

KYC017-049-097-181-270432-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0465.000000T0000Z-120727T0420Z/
NICHOLAS KY-BOURBON KY-CLARK KY-HARRISON KY-
1222 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN HARRISON...NORTHERN
CLARK...EASTERN BOURBON AND NICHOLAS COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE MOVING 
OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL 
PERSIST FOR 15 TO 30 MORE MINUTES.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR POST YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE FACEBOOK PAGE.

LAT...LON 3818 8398 3812 8407 3802 8401 3810 8418
      3816 8417 3843 8429 3844 8397 3842 8394
      3837 8391 3837 8388 3835 8385 3831 8383
TIME...MOT...LOC 0408Z 270DEG 30KT 3838 8411 3818 8400
          3802 8400

$$

SCHOETTMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
951 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2012

Convection continues to move steadily eastward across the forecast
area this evening.  Atmosphere has become more stabilized across
southern Indiana and portions of north-central Kentucky where
convective overturning has occurred.  Despite the decrease in
instability, the low-level jet has been trying to kick off some more
convection across southern Indiana.  This activity will most likely
affect the northern half of the Louisville metro area in the next
60-90 minutes.

Further south, a very pronounced outflow/mesoscale boundary lies
from Ohio county east-northeastward to Madison county.  Convection
continues to propagate eastward along this boundary and is showing
some signs of increasing in intensity.  The atmosphere south of this
boundary has largely remained undisturbed and is coincident with the
best instability and moisture.  Since this area has not been worked
over, have coordinated with SPC and extended WW526 in both time and
in area to cover all of southern Kentucky until 06Z (2AM EDT).  As
this line heads east-southeast, we'll clear out counties from the
watch as the threat diminishes.

Updated forecast and text products are in production and will be
available shortly.

&&

.Short Term (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2012

...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Likely This Afternoon and
Evening with Damaging Winds and Intense Lightning...

Wave train of MCV evident on visible satellite from northern
Oklahoma to northern Indiana, with 4 separate rotations along the
train. Perhaps another weak one over Lake Erie. Our afternoon
weather right now looks to come more from a convergent boundary out
ahead of this train now oriented SW to NE around Dubois county
and/or from a differential heating boundary caused by that anvil
shield. Not much has fired off of these boundaries yet, which may be
because of subsidence on the edge of the cirrus shield coming from
earlier convection. Latest AMDAR sounding from KSDF indicates an
inversion at 12 kft that could be a representation of this
subsidence. Expect that by mid/late afternoon our updrafts should be
strong enough to overcome, along with added boundaries, any
convective inhibition. Once that cap is broken, expect more numerous
storms to fire off. Soundings still indicate the primary threats as
damaging winds as well as excessive lightning with these storms,
with a secondary threat as hail. Think wet bulb zeroes are too high
for very large hail, but quarter to golf ball size is possible.

Have now seen enough initiation upstream to warrant going with a
watch. Should see coverage become more numerous after 5 PM across
the watch area. For this evening, hi res models, the 4 km NAM and
the latest rapid refresh, are trying to show additional development
from the MCV now over central Missouri. That system looks to bring
perhaps a second punch of storms in from the west across my
southwest forecast area toward the end of the current watch, though
may get some initiation ahead of that time based on heating alone.
Expect most activity to die off soon after midnight. Will trend the
forecast pops down to lower end chances, mainly across our southeast
forecast area. As for the severity of this second set of storms, the
best chance would be as the storms move through areas that did not
receive the first batch. Would think again damaging winds is the
main threat. Lows should fall to the low/mid 70s.

The front associated with today's line of convection looks to make
it to the Ohio River before dissipating overnight. Now Friday has
become a tricky forecast with the latest set of models. The 06Z NAM
indicated a second front developing and it's 12Z version, along with
the GFS's, now also indicate this second front. Precipitable waters
come down ahead of this front, but with height falls aloft, now hail
looks to jump back in as a bigger threat for any storms that
develop. As previous forecasts have dried out Friday, would prefer
not to jump back in with scattered storms just yet. Will trend
upward and mention isolated chances for now.

Highs are also tricky, as they will depend on how long morning cloud
cover sticks around. The NAM-based MET guidance has consistently
been calling for temps around 100 for SDF and points north, whereas
the MAV guidance has been quite a bit cooler. The latest MET is a
little cooler, but reasonable given the lack of a real front pushing
through until Friday afternoon. The good news though is that the
drier air over the region should preclude Heat Advisory criteria.
With a frontal passage Friday night, expect lows to be cooler than
tonight. Readings should get back into the 60s for some of the
normally cooler locations, but stay around 70/lows 70s for the main
metro areas.

.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2012

Main concern this afternoon lies in the short term period with a
potential severe event at hand so have made only minor tweaks to the
long term period.  It still looks like Sat/Sun will be mostly dry on
the back side of an upper level trough with sfc high pressure
building in.  Several chances of storms will exists for next week as
we sit in an active NW flow with several shortwaves passing
through.  20-40% POPs are in the forecast for now with timing of
individual waves still quite uncertain.

Temperatures will be near normal through the long term period with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Lows will be in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.Aviation (0Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2012

Showers and t-storms look to continue across the area through 4-6Z
this evening.  Will handle mainly with VCTS in the TAFs and
highlight specific storms with TEMPO groups as they approach the TAF
sites this evening.  We should see a break in storms during the
early morning hours tonight through the early afternoon hours
Friday.  However, an upper trough and second sfc front look to cause
another round of convection some time Fri afternoon/evening.  Will
need to take a better look at that for the 6Z TAFs.  Will focus the
0Z TAFs on ongoing convection.  Any flight restrictions through the
TAF period should be in t-storms.  Gusty winds will continue in and
outside of t-storms especially with a multitude of outflow
boundaries in the area.  Will handle outflows in TEMPOs as well.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........MJ
Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........AMS
Aviation.........AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1011 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053-280515-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE
1011 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 /911 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE...STRONG WIND GUSTS...OR
HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
(ALL LOWER CASE)

KYZ054>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-280515-
MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-
HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-
SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-
RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...
COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1011 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 /911 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE...STRONG WIND GUSTS...OR
HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
(ALL LOWER CASE)

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1114 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     HAIL             SHELBYVILLE             38.22N  85.23W
07/26/2012  E0.70 INCH       SHELBY             KY   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED VIA FACEBOOK

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200946

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1127 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HODGENVILLE             37.57N  85.74W
07/26/2012                   LARUE              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTS TREES DOWN IN HODGENVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200947

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1129 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE BUFFALO           37.54N  85.68W
07/26/2012                   LARUE              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTS TREES DOWN ON HWY 470

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200948

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1133 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 PM     LIGHTNING        BARDSTOWN               37.81N  85.46W
07/26/2012                   NELSON             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 INJ *** DISPATCH REPORTS ONE INJURED PERSON DUE
            TO LIGHTNING

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200949

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1134 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     LIGHTNING        BARDSTOWN               37.81N  85.46W
07/26/2012                   NELSON             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE CAUGHT ON FIRE FROM LIGHTNING

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200950

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1142 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW MARKET              37.50N  85.32W
07/26/2012                   MARION             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTS TREE DOWN ON STATE HWY 289 BETWEEN
            MILL DAM ROAD AND WARDS BRANCH ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200951

LG