Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
951 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2012

Convection continues to move steadily eastward across the forecast
area this evening.  Atmosphere has become more stabilized across
southern Indiana and portions of north-central Kentucky where
convective overturning has occurred.  Despite the decrease in
instability, the low-level jet has been trying to kick off some more
convection across southern Indiana.  This activity will most likely
affect the northern half of the Louisville metro area in the next
60-90 minutes.

Further south, a very pronounced outflow/mesoscale boundary lies
from Ohio county east-northeastward to Madison county.  Convection
continues to propagate eastward along this boundary and is showing
some signs of increasing in intensity.  The atmosphere south of this
boundary has largely remained undisturbed and is coincident with the
best instability and moisture.  Since this area has not been worked
over, have coordinated with SPC and extended WW526 in both time and
in area to cover all of southern Kentucky until 06Z (2AM EDT).  As
this line heads east-southeast, we'll clear out counties from the
watch as the threat diminishes.

Updated forecast and text products are in production and will be
available shortly.

&&

.Short Term (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2012

...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Likely This Afternoon and
Evening with Damaging Winds and Intense Lightning...

Wave train of MCV evident on visible satellite from northern
Oklahoma to northern Indiana, with 4 separate rotations along the
train. Perhaps another weak one over Lake Erie. Our afternoon
weather right now looks to come more from a convergent boundary out
ahead of this train now oriented SW to NE around Dubois county
and/or from a differential heating boundary caused by that anvil
shield. Not much has fired off of these boundaries yet, which may be
because of subsidence on the edge of the cirrus shield coming from
earlier convection. Latest AMDAR sounding from KSDF indicates an
inversion at 12 kft that could be a representation of this
subsidence. Expect that by mid/late afternoon our updrafts should be
strong enough to overcome, along with added boundaries, any
convective inhibition. Once that cap is broken, expect more numerous
storms to fire off. Soundings still indicate the primary threats as
damaging winds as well as excessive lightning with these storms,
with a secondary threat as hail. Think wet bulb zeroes are too high
for very large hail, but quarter to golf ball size is possible.

Have now seen enough initiation upstream to warrant going with a
watch. Should see coverage become more numerous after 5 PM across
the watch area. For this evening, hi res models, the 4 km NAM and
the latest rapid refresh, are trying to show additional development
from the MCV now over central Missouri. That system looks to bring
perhaps a second punch of storms in from the west across my
southwest forecast area toward the end of the current watch, though
may get some initiation ahead of that time based on heating alone.
Expect most activity to die off soon after midnight. Will trend the
forecast pops down to lower end chances, mainly across our southeast
forecast area. As for the severity of this second set of storms, the
best chance would be as the storms move through areas that did not
receive the first batch. Would think again damaging winds is the
main threat. Lows should fall to the low/mid 70s.

The front associated with today's line of convection looks to make
it to the Ohio River before dissipating overnight. Now Friday has
become a tricky forecast with the latest set of models. The 06Z NAM
indicated a second front developing and it's 12Z version, along with
the GFS's, now also indicate this second front. Precipitable waters
come down ahead of this front, but with height falls aloft, now hail
looks to jump back in as a bigger threat for any storms that
develop. As previous forecasts have dried out Friday, would prefer
not to jump back in with scattered storms just yet. Will trend
upward and mention isolated chances for now.

Highs are also tricky, as they will depend on how long morning cloud
cover sticks around. The NAM-based MET guidance has consistently
been calling for temps around 100 for SDF and points north, whereas
the MAV guidance has been quite a bit cooler. The latest MET is a
little cooler, but reasonable given the lack of a real front pushing
through until Friday afternoon. The good news though is that the
drier air over the region should preclude Heat Advisory criteria.
With a frontal passage Friday night, expect lows to be cooler than
tonight. Readings should get back into the 60s for some of the
normally cooler locations, but stay around 70/lows 70s for the main
metro areas.

.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2012

Main concern this afternoon lies in the short term period with a
potential severe event at hand so have made only minor tweaks to the
long term period.  It still looks like Sat/Sun will be mostly dry on
the back side of an upper level trough with sfc high pressure
building in.  Several chances of storms will exists for next week as
we sit in an active NW flow with several shortwaves passing
through.  20-40% POPs are in the forecast for now with timing of
individual waves still quite uncertain.

Temperatures will be near normal through the long term period with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Lows will be in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.Aviation (0Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2012

Showers and t-storms look to continue across the area through 4-6Z
this evening.  Will handle mainly with VCTS in the TAFs and
highlight specific storms with TEMPO groups as they approach the TAF
sites this evening.  We should see a break in storms during the
early morning hours tonight through the early afternoon hours
Friday.  However, an upper trough and second sfc front look to cause
another round of convection some time Fri afternoon/evening.  Will
need to take a better look at that for the 6Z TAFs.  Will focus the
0Z TAFs on ongoing convection.  Any flight restrictions through the
TAF period should be in t-storms.  Gusty winds will continue in and
outside of t-storms especially with a multitude of outflow
boundaries in the area.  Will handle outflows in TEMPOs as well.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........MJ
Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........AMS
Aviation.........AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1011 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053-280515-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE
1011 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 /911 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE...STRONG WIND GUSTS...OR
HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
(ALL LOWER CASE)

KYZ054>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-280515-
MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-
HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-
SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-
RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...
COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1011 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 /911 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE...STRONG WIND GUSTS...OR
HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
(ALL LOWER CASE)

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1142 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW MARKET              37.50N  85.32W
07/26/2012                   MARION             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTS TREE DOWN ON STATE HWY 289 BETWEEN
            MILL DAM ROAD AND WARDS BRANCH ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200951

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1151 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE HIGHGROVE         37.96N  85.43W
07/26/2012                   SPENCER            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTS TREE DOWN ON HIGHGROVE ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200952

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1158 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW PEYTONA           38.20N  85.15W
07/26/2012                   SHELBY             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTS TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            HEMPRIDGE AND FRANKFORT ROADS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200953

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1207 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ESE WADDY               38.13N  85.07W
07/26/2012                   SHELBY             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG GRAFENBURG ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200954

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1210 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 PM     FLASH FLOOD      12 ESE SHELBYVILLE      38.15N  85.03W
07/26/2012                   SHELBY             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOOD WATERS COVERED INTERSTATE 64

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200955

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1213 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

KYC005-179-215-229-270445-
NELSON KY-SPENCER KY-WASHINGTON KY-ANDERSON KY-
1213 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 1210 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF BARDSTOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...HALF INCH HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  SPRINGFIELD...
  POLIN AND HARDESTY...
  BRUSH GROVE AND PLEASANT GROVE...
  TATHAM SPRINGS AND PULLIAM...
  FAIRVIEW AND JOHNSONVILLE...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34
AND 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3807 8504 3789 8502 3788 8503 3787 8502
      3777 8501 3769 8502 3767 8535 3795 8536
      3804 8511 3804 8509 3806 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 260DEG 22KT 3784 8527

EER