Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
729 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 640 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2012

Severe t-storm watch 526 has been expanded to include all of
southern Indiana and central KY.  Line of storms across north
central KY continues to pulse up and down near severe levels.  Penny
size hail and 70-75 mph winds have been the strongest reports so far
as of 2215Z.  Expect the severe threat to continue through the
evening hours as plenty of instability and forcing from the
approaching front as well as mesoscale boundaries work to kick
off/continue storms.

With storms overtaking much of the area and heat indices on the way
down, have cancelled the heat advisory early.

&&

.Short Term (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2012

...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Likely This Afternoon and
Evening with Damaging Winds and Intense Lightning...

Wave train of MCV evident on visible satellite from northern
Oklahoma to northern Indiana, with 4 separate rotations along the
train. Perhaps another weak one over Lake Erie. Our afternoon
weather right now looks to come more from a convergent boundary out
ahead of this train now oriented SW to NE around Dubois county
and/or from a differential heating boundary caused by that anvil
shield. Not much has fired off of these boundaries yet, which may be
because of subsidence on the edge of the cirrus shield coming from
earlier convection. Latest AMDAR sounding from KSDF indicates an
inversion at 12 kft that could be a representation of this
subsidence. Expect that by mid/late afternoon our updrafts should be
strong enough to overcome, along with added boundaries, any
convective inhibition. Once that cap is broken, expect more numerous
storms to fire off. Soundings still indicate the primary threats as
damaging winds as well as excessive lightning with these storms,
with a secondary threat as hail. Think wet bulb zeroes are too high
for very large hail, but quarter to golf ball size is possible.

Have now seen enough initiation upstream to warrant going with a
watch. Should see coverage become more numerous after 5 PM across
the watch area. For this evening, hi res models, the 4 km NAM and
the latest rapid refresh, are trying to show additional development
from the MCV now over central Missouri. That system looks to bring
perhaps a second punch of storms in from the west across my
southwest forecast area toward the end of the current watch, though
may get some initiation ahead of that time based on heating alone.
Expect most activity to die off soon after midnight. Will trend the
forecast pops down to lower end chances, mainly across our southeast
forecast area. As for the severity of this second set of storms, the
best chance would be as the storms move through areas that did not
receive the first batch. Would think again damaging winds is the
main threat. Lows should fall to the low/mid 70s.

The front associated with today's line of convection looks to make
it to the Ohio River before dissipating overnight. Now Friday has
become a tricky forecast with the latest set of models. The 06Z NAM
indicated a second front developing and it's 12Z version, along with
the GFS's, now also indicate this second front. Precipitable waters
come down ahead of this front, but with height falls aloft, now hail
looks to jump back in as a bigger threat for any storms that
develop. As previous forecasts have dried out Friday, would prefer
not to jump back in with scattered storms just yet. Will trend
upward and mention isolated chances for now.

Highs are also tricky, as they will depend on how long morning cloud
cover sticks around. The NAM-based MET guidance has consistently
been calling for temps around 100 for SDF and points north, whereas
the MAV guidance has been quite a bit cooler. The latest MET is a
little cooler, but reasonable given the lack of a real front pushing
through until Friday afternoon. The good news though is that the
drier air over the region should preclude Heat Advisory criteria.
With a frontal passage Friday night, expect lows to be cooler than
tonight. Readings should get back into the 60s for some of the
normally cooler locations, but stay around 70/lows 70s for the main
metro areas.

.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2012

Main concern this afternoon lies in the short term period with a
potential severe event at hand so have made only minor tweaks to the
long term period.  It still looks like Sat/Sun will be mostly dry on
the back side of an upper level trough with sfc high pressure
building in.  Several chances of storms will exists for next week as
we sit in an active NW flow with several shortwaves passing
through.  20-40% POPs are in the forecast for now with timing of
individual waves still quite uncertain.

Temperatures will be near normal through the long term period with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Lows will be in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.Aviation (0Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2012

Showers and t-storms look to continue across the area through 4-6Z
this evening.  Will handle mainly with VCTS in the TAFs and
highlight specific storms with TEMPO groups as they approach the TAF
sites this evening.  We should see a break in storms during the
early morning hours tonight through the early afternoon hours
Friday.  However, an upper trough and second sfc front look to cause
another round of convection some time Fri afternoon/evening.  Will
need to take a better look at that for the 6Z TAFs.  Will focus the
0Z TAFs on ongoing convection.  Any flight restrictions through the
TAF period should be in t-storms.  Gusty winds will continue in and
outside of t-storms especially with a multitude of outflow
boundaries in the area.  Will handle outflows in TEMPOs as well.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........AMS
Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........AMS
Aviation.........AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
649 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-280200-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
649 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 /549 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST RESULTING
IN CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM EDT...9 PM CDT. DAMAGING
WINDS AND INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN WEATHER
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS AS WELL. STORMS SHOULD DECLINE AND MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE...STRONG WIND GUSTS...OR
HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE (ALL LOWER CASE).

RJS/AMS

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