Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.Short Term (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Updated at 315 PM EDT Mar 15 2012

...Severe thunderstorm watch for pulse storms/hail...

In the wake of a convective complex that crossed southern Indiana
earlier this morning, cumulus cloud development has been suppressed
until recently. However, the atmosphere has become quite unstable
and scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed over
southwest IN and central KY and will spread over the entire area by
late afternoon. Given the strong instability across the region and
weak shear, severe pulse storms are expected and will continue and
thus, SPC has given our entire area a severe thunderstorm watch.
Expect this to continue through the late afternoon and early evening
hours. Storms will lose their strength with sunset but scattered
convection will continue through the overnight hours most likely.

For tonight through Friday night, the Lower Ohio Valley will remain
within a very mild and moist early summer-like pattern. Several
disturbances that are hard to nail down the timing will move across
the region. Scattered thunderstorms are quite possible at any time
from tonight through Friday night. For Friday, feel that the best
chance of convection will lie south of the Ohio River.

Expect overnight lows tonight not far from 60, and highs Friday in
the upper 70s.

.Long Term (Saturday - Thursday)...
Updated at 300 PM EDT Mar 15 2012

Persistent and anomalous pattern will continue for much of the
week.  Deep SW flow will keep things unsettled for the first part of
the weekend, so will continue to carry a chance POP for Saturday
afternoon. The upper ridge over the Deep South will amplify Sunday
and into the early part of next week, gradually shutting off our
rain chances. Slight chance Sunday and then a dry forecast Mon-Wed.
A bit more uncertainty creeps in around Day 7, as the models show a
deep trof over the Rockies closing off into a deep upper low over
the Southern Plains by Wednesday. ECMWF brings this feature far
enough east for precip to return on Thursday, while the GFS is about
a day slower. The forecast reflects a compromise and will include a
chance POP for Thursday, but reality will be all or nothing
depending on which solution verifies.

Temps will run 20-25 degrees above climo both day and night through
the period.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 100 PM EDT Mar 15 2012

Unseasonably warm and humid weather will very likely spark scattered
to numerous thunderstorm by mid to late afternoon. In this early
summer-like pattern, trying to pinpoint when a specific storm will
impact a specific TAF site will be challenging. Feel that
thunderstorms will begin to affect BWG and SDF as early as 19z, and
LEX an hour or two later. Expect that thunderstorms will be most
numerous
from 20z through 02z early Friday, then diminish in coverage.
However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible at any
time Friday as well.

Southwest winds will average around 10kt this afternoon, then
diminish to around 5kt from the south tonight. Friday afternoon,
expect southwest winds around 10kt.

Ceilings will stay VFR outside of any thunderstorms. Gusty winds and
low visibilities and ceilings will occur within any thunderstorm.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......JSD/AL
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
232 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-161530-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
232 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012 /132 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SOME STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH A LESSER POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS MULTIPLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS WE REMAIN IN A WARM...MOIST...SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE
STORMS. ALL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

JSD/RS/AL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
526 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             PARIS                   38.21N  84.26W
03/15/2012  E0.75 INCH       BOURBON            KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200426

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
527 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             VERSAILLES              38.05N  84.73W
03/15/2012  E0.50 INCH       WOODFORD           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200427

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
528 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYZ037-042-043-152230-
BOURBON-HARRISON-NICHOLAS-
528 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
PENNY SIZE HAIL...

AT 524 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CYNTHIANA
TO PARIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED IN PARIS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE INCH PER
HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS
OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  CYNTHIANA...
  CARLISLE...
  BOYD AND COLVILLE...
  JACKSTOWN AND MILLERSBURG...
  ODDVILLE AND KELAT...
  EAST UNION AND HOOKTOWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 8413 3851 8450 3854 8446 3855 8443
      3856 8442 3858 8421 3856 8420 3855 8416
      3851 8418 3848 8415 3844 8400 3844 8397
      3841 8393 3837 8391 3837 8389 3833 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 215DEG 10KT 3850 8437 3827 8418

RAS