Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1021 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

.Update...
Issued at 1022 PM EDT Mar 14 2012

A scattered line of showers and a few thunderstorms has developed
this evening ahead of a surface trough extending from St. Louis
through Nashville. Mositure convergence ahead of this feature
combined with low level jet around 30 knots was enough to trigger
the storms with a couple of severe warnings issued. Storms developed
in an area of 1000-2000 J/KG of CAPE with forecast soundings showing
dry mid and lower levels. Freezing levels were around 12 K feet,
however with the dry air wet bulb heights were around 8 K feet. This
allowed for large hail potential with the strongest updrafts. Threat
will diminish over the next couple of hours as storms move (slowly)
out of unstable environment and into drier air.

Have reduced pops to low end scattered for the overnight. Over the
next few hours, line of storms will push east ahead of the surface
trough and weaken as they lose instability and move into drier air.
What will happen after 06z toward dawn is low confidence as model
support has been non-existent and there are no real triggering
mechanisms other than 30 knot low level jet and some remnant outflow
boundaries. Therefore reduced coverage of storms.

Rest of the forecast looks on track for the overnight with lows only
dropping into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Update issued at 657 PM EDT Mar 14 2012

A look at current radar shows two areas of convection over the
region. One cluster of storms is just west of Nashville, TN, with
the second and less organized area of storms over the
Ohio/Mississippi River confluence. Visible satellite imagery shows a
couple of outflow boundaries working northward toward the Bowling
Green region from the TN convection with some enhanced Cu along and
west of I-65. Have seen a few light returns with the latest radar
scans getting ready to move into the western and southern CWA so
will include Isolated shower and thunderstorm wording a few hours
early from the previous forecast. Showers and storms will be moving
(slowly) into our drier and less unstable airmass so do not expect
widespread coverage or any real strong storm threats. Will continue
to monitor radar and latest trends. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast looks on track for more widespread showers and storms to
develop overnight as low level jet ramps up. Best area of coverage
toward dawn should be across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky.

.Short Term (Today through Thursday)...
Updated at 220 PM EDT Mar 14 2012

Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will continue through
Friday. The combination of weak southwesterly flow and increasingly
moist conditions will likely lead to the development of scattered
early morning thunderstorms tomorrow. Early morning development may
be augmented by a modest southwesterly jet and a weak disturbance
that may move northeast along the Ohio River. Amid total
precipitable water values that are forecast to increase from 0.75 to
1.25 inches by mid-day Thursday, expect partly to mostly cloudy
skies and scattered thunderstorms on occasion Thursday evening
through Friday.

Any storms that develop will stay relatively unorganized and be more
reminiscent of the type of scattered convection that our region
sees in May. Localized heavy downpours and small hail are certainly
possible with any of the stronger cells that develop.

Expect an exceptionally mild overnight period with lows averaging
near 60. Highs on Thursday will likely be slightly cooler given the
anticipated cloud cover and precipitation around.  Still, afternoon
temperatures will remain well above normal with mid to upper 70s
likely.

.Long Term (Friday - Wednesday)...
Updated at 315 PM EDT Mar 14 2012

...Near record high temperatures expected this weekend and early
next week...

An upper-level ridge axis is still forecast to build over the Ohio
Valley during the extended period. This will keep unusually warm
afternoon temperatures in place over our area during the forecast
period. Early in the forecast, the ridge will not be as strong and
will allow at least a couple of weak shortwaves to move through it,
combined with ample instability and low-level moisture. Therefore,
scattered convection is expected Friday and Saturday.

On Friday, convective evolution is questionable as 12z NAM, GFS,and
ECMWF all indicate a possible area of convection overnight lingering
into Friday morning. Then isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
possible again Friday afternoon, although if there is morning
storms, this can preclude much afternoon activity given residual
cloud clover and less instability.

On Saturday, models suggest another weak shortwave will approach in
the afternoon with at least scattered diurnal/afternoon convective
development. Vertical shear will be weak, but pulse type storms are
expected with gusty winds and small hail possible.

On Sunday, the ridge continues to build which should diminish the
chances for diurnal storms as temperatures aloft begin to warm.
Nevertheless, isolated afternoon cells are possible which is
consistent with previous forecast. By Monday, with further building
of the ridge, he air mass should stabilize a bit more with dry
weather expected. Models hint at slightly lower surface dewpoints as
well, which would also favor dry conditions due to a capped air
mass. The latest ECMWF shows that there is still a chance of
convection Monday, but still believe the ridge should dampen chances
by then, which is consistent with our previous forecast.

The next chance of rain is contingent on how strong and long the
upper ridge remains over the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic States.
The latest GFS suggests a closed low aloft will remain at bay over
the Plains keeping our weather dry through at least the middle and
perhaps even to the end of next week. The ECMWF is similar by just a
tad faster with the eastward movement of the low.

As for temperatures, it will continue to be unusually warm during
the afternoons through the period. Friday actually may be the
"coolest" day with highs in the mid-upper 70s (perhaps less) if
clouds and showers linger long enough that day. Then, with partly
cloudy conditions over the weekend, readings should rise into the
upper 70s and lower 80s again Saturday. On Sunday and Monday, expect
highs around 80 and the lower 80s, and not out of the question we
could see a couple 83 or even 84 readings in a few spots if there is
enough sunshine. Maximum temperatures from the mid 70s to around 80
should occur Tuesday and Wednesday. These highs will be well above
the normal highs for this time of year from the mid 50s to around
60. In fact, record high temperatures will be approached, equaled,
or possibly even broken at some locations. Below is a table of the
record high temperatures and years at Louisville, Lexington, and
Bowling Green.

Record High Temp/Year

            SDF      LEX      BWG
Fri Mar 16  84/1945  83/1945  84/1945
Sat Mar 17  79/1894  76/1989  86/1894
Sun Mar 18  82/1982  79/1982  87/1908
Mon Mar 19  83/1907  79/1945  86/1907
Tue Mar 20  85/1894  81/1894  85/1921

Morning lows during this period actually should be slighter lower
with time (in the 50s/around 60 lowering to the lower/mid 50s) as
the ridge builds and surface dewpoints subside a bit, resulting in a
large diurnal temperature rise from morning to afternoon.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 648 PM EDT Mar 14 2012

Cumulus clouds are ranging from FEW-SCT across the TAF sites and
expect coverage to diminish after sunset. Convective debris and a
new surge of deeper moisture will quickly allow for partly cloudy
skies late this evening as chances for showers and thunderstorms
increase around midnight with the arrival of a low level jet.
Conditions are expected to remain VFR outside of any Iso-Sct
thunderstorm that could impact a TAF site overnight, however
confidence is too low to include more than just CB or VCTS wording
at this point. Iso-Sct chances for showers and thunderstorms will
continue through Thursday with southwesterly winds between 10 and 15
mph gusting up to around 25 mph.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........BJS
Short Term.......JSD
Long Term........TWF
Aviation.........BJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
345 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-151800-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
345 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012 /245 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS
A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACH THE REGION. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JSD/TWF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
750 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012

KYZ073>075-150115-
ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-
750 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 747 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SCOTTSVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  WALNUT HILL...
  FOUNTAIN RUN AND TRACY...
  LAMB AND FLIPPIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3685 8585 3665 8585 3664 8613 3676 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 252DEG 23KT 3671 8607

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
916 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

INZ076-083-084-150145-
CRAWFORD-DUBOIS-ORANGE-
916 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
PENNY SIZE HAIL...

AT 915 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF JASPER...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND PENNY
SIZE HAIL...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  ELLSWORTH...
  WICKLIFFE...
  GREENBRIER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 8657 3835 8651 3836 8679 3843 8681
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 254DEG 21KT 3839 8675

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1113 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

INZ091-092-150345-
CLARK-FLOYD-
1113 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...

AT 1111 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF NEW ALBANY...AND MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  NEW ALBANY...
  JEFFERSONVILLE...
  FLOYDS KNOBS...
  SAINT JOSEPH AND CLARKSVILLE...
  CEMENTVILLE AND HAMBURG...
  CLARK REGIONAL AIRPORT AND WATSON...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
1 AND 8.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
118 AND 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 8571 3830 8567 3827 8573 3827 8576
      3829 8577 3829 8579 3828 8583 3827 8584
      3826 8594 3836 8596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 254DEG 22KT 3832 8592

SCHOETTMER

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