Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.Short Term (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Updated at 315 PM EDT Mar 15 2012

...Severe thunderstorm watch for pulse storms/hail...

In the wake of a convective complex that crossed southern Indiana
earlier this morning, cumulus cloud development has been suppressed
until recently. However, the atmosphere has become quite unstable
and scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed over
southwest IN and central KY and will spread over the entire area by
late afternoon. Given the strong instability across the region and
weak shear, severe pulse storms are expected and will continue and
thus, SPC has given our entire area a severe thunderstorm watch.
Expect this to continue through the late afternoon and early evening
hours. Storms will lose their strength with sunset but scattered
convection will continue through the overnight hours most likely.

For tonight through Friday night, the Lower Ohio Valley will remain
within a very mild and moist early summer-like pattern. Several
disturbances that are hard to nail down the timing will move across
the region. Scattered thunderstorms are quite possible at any time
from tonight through Friday night. For Friday, feel that the best
chance of convection will lie south of the Ohio River.

Expect overnight lows tonight not far from 60, and highs Friday in
the upper 70s.

.Long Term (Saturday - Thursday)...
Updated at 300 PM EDT Mar 15 2012

Persistent and anomalous pattern will continue for much of the
week.  Deep SW flow will keep things unsettled for the first part of
the weekend, so will continue to carry a chance POP for Saturday
afternoon. The upper ridge over the Deep South will amplify Sunday
and into the early part of next week, gradually shutting off our
rain chances. Slight chance Sunday and then a dry forecast Mon-Wed.
A bit more uncertainty creeps in around Day 7, as the models show a
deep trof over the Rockies closing off into a deep upper low over
the Southern Plains by Wednesday. ECMWF brings this feature far
enough east for precip to return on Thursday, while the GFS is about
a day slower. The forecast reflects a compromise and will include a
chance POP for Thursday, but reality will be all or nothing
depending on which solution verifies.

Temps will run 20-25 degrees above climo both day and night through
the period.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 100 PM EDT Mar 15 2012

Unseasonably warm and humid weather will very likely spark scattered
to numerous thunderstorm by mid to late afternoon. In this early
summer-like pattern, trying to pinpoint when a specific storm will
impact a specific TAF site will be challenging. Feel that
thunderstorms will begin to affect BWG and SDF as early as 19z, and
LEX an hour or two later. Expect that thunderstorms will be most
numerous
from 20z through 02z early Friday, then diminish in coverage.
However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible at any
time Friday as well.

Southwest winds will average around 10kt this afternoon, then
diminish to around 5kt from the south tonight. Friday afternoon,
expect southwest winds around 10kt.

Ceilings will stay VFR outside of any thunderstorms. Gusty winds and
low visibilities and ceilings will occur within any thunderstorm.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......JSD/AL
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
232 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-161530-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
232 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012 /132 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SOME STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH A LESSER POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS MULTIPLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS WE REMAIN IN A WARM...MOIST...SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE
STORMS. ALL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

JSD/RS/AL

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
406 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     HAIL             2 W LEBANON             37.57N  85.29W
03/15/2012  E0.50 INCH       MARION             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200407

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
408 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

INZ076-077-152045-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-
408 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PAOLI...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  PAOLI...
  BROMER AND LEIPSIC...
  SALTILLO AND CLAYSVILLE...
  CAMPBELLSBURG AND SMEDLEY...
  PROWSVILLE AND MOUNT CARMEL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3878 8618 3862 8607 3853 8647 3863 8654
      3869 8642 3869 8632 3873 8631 3874 8630
      3876 8629 3878 8626 3877 8624 3878 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 243DEG 27KT 3861 8640

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
410 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     HAIL             FERN CREEK              38.16N  85.60W
03/15/2012  E0.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200408

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
411 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYZ023-026-061-070-152115-
BUTLER-HANCOCK-LOGAN-OHIO-
311 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WITH CONTINUOUS DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...HALF INCH HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 406 PM EDT/306 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
WEBSTER COUNTY DOWN TO NEAR HOPKINSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
RATES OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR...HALF INCH HAIL...AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  RUSSELLVILLE...
  MORGANTOWN...
  HARTFORD...
  SMALLHOUS...
  KIRTLEY AND COFFMAN...
  KEYSBURG AND WYSOX...
  LICKSKILLET AND DOT...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 75 AND 77...AND THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 27 AND 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON
LOCAL ROADWAYS AND SUDDENLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. DRIVERS SHOULD
SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 8713 3767 8683 3775 8682 3776 8670
      3755 8659 3756 8664 3740 8661 3737 8650
      3727 8646 3718 8650 3718 8662 3693 8664
      3664 8679 3664 8706 3706 8706 3709 8690
      3722 8691 3736 8703 3733 8714
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 253DEG 40KT 3762 8743 3718 8727
          3675 8744

AL