Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Louisville, KY

759 
WWUS53 KLMK 262044
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
344 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012

KYC003-141-213-227-262100-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-120426T2100Z/
LOGAN KY-SIMPSON KY-WARREN KY-ALLEN KY-
344 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...SIMPSON AND EASTERN
LOGAN COUNTIES...

AT 340 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF 
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE 
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SCOTTSVILLE TO GOLD 
CITY TO WOODBURN TO AUBURN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF BOWLING GREEN...
  FRANKLIN...
  SCOTTSVILLE...
  RODEMER AND CHAPEL HILL...
  PETROLEUM AND ALONZO...
  MCELROY FORD AND CLARE...

THIS STORM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED. WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND
POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS AND HOMES. TAKE COVER NOW!

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING HAIL...CAPABLE OF CAUSING EXTENSIVE 
PROPERTY DAMAGE AND SERIOUS INJURY. AVOID WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 8626 3663 8601 3663 8622 3665 8636
      3665 8652 3663 8657 3700 8681 3688 8653
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 316DEG 18KT 3675 8621 3675 8641
          3683 8652 3687 8674
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.75IN

$$

13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
350 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

.Short Term (Tonight through Friday night)...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Apr 26 2012

Thunderstorms have begun to fire up along the cold front currently
traversing through central Kentucky. With plenty of instability left
behind from this morning's MCS and with the front allowing
for plenty of warming to occur, along with a continued flow of
low-level moisture, any storms that do develop have the potential to
go severe. SBCAPE values have been progged at around 2500-3000 J/kg
with the cap gone by mid-afternoon over central Kentucky.
Additionally, steep low to mid level lapse rates and dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s have primed the area ahead of the frontal
boundary for strong to severe thunderstorms. Initially, the caveat
to this was dry air intruding in from the northwest but an
upper-level surge has pushed this pocket out of the region. To
start, the storms may take on supercellular structures but is
anticipated to congeal into at least some sort of broken line as the
front continues to sag south toward the Kentucky-Tennessee border.
As a result, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the
south-central portions of the forecast area down into northern
Tennessee. The primary threat will be large hail and damaging winds.
For the rest of the forecast area (generally points along and near
the Ohio River), a CU field had been popping up early today but
precip chances are not looking favorable with the front having
already passed through these locations.

Overnight tonight into early tomorrow is forecast to quiet down with
no precip chances in the grids. The next best chance for showers and
thunderstorms arrives tomorrow afternoon from the southwest as
another front associated with the next low pressure system moves
into western Kentucky. Coverage does not appear to look that great
as models indicate this convection breaking up after sunset
tomorrow. As Friday night wears on, the precip chances shift north
of the Ohio River as another shortwave approaches.

Temperatures tonight will cool down into the low 40s in southern
Indiana with a gradient reflected through central Kentucky as temps
increase to the low 50s near the Tennessee border. Drier air will
also move in behind the frontal passage tonight and this combined
with cooler temps tomorrow will make it feel pleasant with temps in
the low to upper 60s across the area. Tomorrow night's lows are
forecast to warm slightly again into the lower to upper 50s.

.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Apr 26 2012

The warm front will be stretched out east-west along the length of
Kentucky at 12Z Saturday and will slowly sink south through the
day.  How far south is up for debate.  The GFS brings strong high
pressure into the Great Lakes and shoves the front well to our south
Saturday night/Sunday.  The ECMWF is not as bullish with the high
and gives it more of an eastward push, resulting in the front
remaining much closer to the LMK CWA.  At this point would like to
lean closer to the ECMWF.  Would be easy to flip-flop the forecast
when trying to get too detailed with this unsure of a forecast.
Also, the ECMWF has been doing pretty well lately.  So, will keep
small PoPs in there for Sunday-Sunday night despite the dry GFS.

By Monday the high will begin to move off to the east and will allow
a surface trof to return or redevelop from the lower Mississippi
Valley to the central Appalachians.  About this time we get into a
ring-of-fire type of pattern as the high settles in over the western
Atlantic and moisture flows up from the Gulf around the backside of
the clockwise circulation.  This will necessitate chance PoPs to be
in the forecast Monday through Thursday.  Difficult to pin down
severe chances during this time.  Typically in this sort of a
pattern we need to keep an eye out for afternoon pulsers and
remnants of overnight MCS's that develop to our west.

Taking a quick look ahead to the weekend, it appears that convection
will still probably be in the area.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 100 PM EDT Apr 26 2012

A CU field has been growing over the last few hours, causing most
area terminals to go MVFR. This cloud cover is expected to continue
to grow in coverage out ahead of an approaching cold front,
currently running along the Ohio River and out toward southwestern
Kentucky. A possibility exists for these clouds to grow into
thunderstorms later this afternoon into the early evening hours as
the atmosphere continues to destabilize under a warm, moist air
mass. Aviation interests in southern Indiana should be in the clear
but chances increase traveling southward, especially along the
Tennessee border. Once the sun sets and the cold front passes
through, VFR conditions can be anticipated through early tomorrow
afternoon. There will be another increased chance for thunderstorms
to develop again near the Tennessee border by later in the day on
Friday. The only other concern for the rest of today would be the
increasing winds/gusts as they shift from out of the southwest to
the northwest after the frontal passage.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......LG
Long Term........13
Aviation.........LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
401 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

KYZ056-057-062>067-070>078-081-082-272015-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-
CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-
BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
401 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012 /301 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COMMONWEALTH. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE INTO A SOUTHBOUND LINE WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
OTHER WEATHER INFORMATION OUTLETS TO RECEIVE THE MOST UP-TO-DATE
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WAVY FRONT MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL COME WITH AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AND REMNANTS
FROM POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT FORM TO OUR
WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR
TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>055-061-272015-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
BUTLER KY-
401 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012 /301 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WAVY FRONT MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL COME WITH AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AND REMNANTS
FROM POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT FORM TO OUR
WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

LG/13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
406 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             2 E BEREA               37.58N  84.26W
04/26/2012  E0.88 INCH       MADISON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200525

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
410 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             BOWLING GREEN           36.97N  86.44W
04/26/2012  E0.70 INCH       WARREN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200526

RL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
412 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

KYZ066-077-078-262045-
ADAIR-CASEY-RUSSELL-
312 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 307 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIBERTY...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  DECATUR AND PHIL...
  TEDDY AND HONEY ACRE...
  WINDSOR...
  MINTONVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 8533 3729 8513 3721 8477 3716 8482
      3712 8490 3705 8490 3700 8483 3698 8485
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 293DEG 30KT 3719 8506

MP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
421 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             3 WSW COMBS             37.65N  84.17W
04/26/2012  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200527

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
423 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             WOODBURY                37.18N  86.64W
04/26/2012  E0.70 INCH       BUTLER             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200528

RL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
424 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

KYZ076-077-081-262100-
ADAIR-CUMBERLAND-METCALF-
324 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 323 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF EDMONTON...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  WEED AND NELL...
  TORIA AND SPARKSVILLE...
  GADBERRY...
  CHANCE AND FAIRPLAY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3704 8569 3712 8561 3711 8552 3712 8548
      3702 8518 3700 8521 3693 8523 3690 8528
      3689 8527 3681 8535
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 304DEG 30KT 3705 8552

MP