Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Louisville, KY

387 
WWUS53 KLMK 260901 RRA
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
401 AM CDT THU APR 26 2012

KYC031-061-085-099-183-260912-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0197.000000T0000Z-120426T0900Z/
OHIO KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-GRAYSON KY-HART KY-
401 AM CDT THU APR 26 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN HART...GRAYSON...
EDMONSON...NORTHERN BUTLER AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NO LONGER
SEVERE. HOWEVER STRONG STORMS REMAIN IN THE AREA. THESE ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3725 8689 3757 8634 3740 8596 3708 8609
      3714 8636 3717 8640 3715 8642 3717 8644
      3716 8647 3719 8650 3717 8653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0831Z 264DEG 37KT 3756 8629 3728 8682

$$

MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
352 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

.Short Term (Today through Friday)...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Apr 26 2012

The immediate concern this morning is the strong to severe
thunderstorms moving into the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. The isolated earlier storms have congealed into a larger
bowing MCS. Relatively warm temperatures and a strong shortwave have
contributed to the enhancement of this system. These storms are
expected to continue to remain strong as they track east across the
forecast area. We have therefore expanded the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch across most of the forecast area this morning. This watch goes
through 13Z, with most of the storms expected to be exiting to the
east by this time. Large hail will still be a concern with these
storms. However, the wind threat is increasing as a bowing line
develops and winds may become the main concern as the system moves
east.

For the rest of the day, rain chances will rapidly decrease. We may
have some lingering showers or thunderstorms across east central
Kentucky through the afternoon hours. There is a bit of uncertainty
however as the atmosphere should be fairly worked over in the wake
of this morning's convection. Winds will shift this afternoon as the
cold front moves through. Winds are expected to become gusty ahead
of and behind this front. Gusts of 20-25 mph can be expected through
the late morning and afternoon hours. Highs today will be in the mid
70s north to the upper 70s in the south.

We will dry out tonight as the cold front sinks south of the area.
Skies will become partly cloudy to mostly clear with temperatures
dropping into the lower 40s in the north to the lower 50s in the
south. For Friday, the front to the south of the region will begin
to move back to the north as a warm front. Ahead of this front,
clouds will overspread the area. We should remain dry through mid
day. Showers and thunderstorms will then begin to move in from the
southwest. Think that coverage in the afternoon will be fairly
limited, so have reduced pops for tomorrow into the low chance range.

.Long Term (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Apr 26 2012

Friday Night through Sunday Night...

Combination and of deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to
show a bit of spread throughout the long term forecast period.  In
general, this will result in lower than normal forecast confidence.

Upper air pattern over the eastern third of the US will remain
generally zonal in nature with multiple short waves moving through
within the mean flow.  So we'll likely see heights rising and
lowering during the period with chances of precipitation occurring
as each wave passes through.

Previous forecast still looks fairly good compared to this evening's
model runs.  Stalled out frontal boundary to the south will likely
lift back northward as a warm front Friday evening as an area of low
pressure moves out of the Plains and into the upper Midwest.  Just
how far north this front will lift northward on Saturday is still
quite questionable.  This will lead to a large gradient of
temperatures across the region.  We could see as much as a 15-20
degree gradient from south to north with highs in the lower 60s in
the north and readings in the upper 70s to the lower 80s in the
south.  The front looks to sag back south of the area on Sunday
resulting a slightly drier forecast for now.  Highs Sunday will
range from the lower 60s in the north tot he upper 60s to around 70
in the south...with overnight lows dropping into the upper 40s to
the lower 50s.

Monday through Wednesday...

Did not make many changes through this period given the wide spreads
in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance.  The Ohio Valley
looks to remain in a baroclinic zone through the period as a surface
frontal boundary remains near the area.  This boundary will start
off to the south of the area at the beginning of the period and
gradually lift northward once again.  As multiple mid-level waves
aloft scoot past, they will likely result in off and showers and
storms.  The predictability of the timing of these waves is quite
low...thus plan on leaving low chance PoPs in the forecast
throughout the period for now.  It does appear that the front will
likely lift north of the Ohio Valley toward the end of the period
resulting in drier and warmer conditions as we head toward the end
of the workweek.  Highs Mon/Tue should warm into the 70s with upper
70s to the lower 80s returning by Wednesday.  Overnight lows will
generally be in the 50-60s.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 120 AM EDT Apr 26 2012

The challenge for the TAFs through the rest of the night will be
whether upstream storms will affect the TAF sites. The latest timing
in upstream convection suggests if the storms hold together they
should affect SDF around 08Z. Whether they will reach BWG or LEX is
a bit more in question. If they do, it should be a couple of hours
later than SDF. Will carry VCTS for a couple of hours for each of
the TAF sites to cover this convection. Ahead of the convection,
will continue to mention wind shear at BWG and LEX.

Through the day today, winds will increase in the late morning to
early afternoon hours ahead of and just behind the frontal passage.
Winds will gust to around 20 knots, with some higher gusts possible.
Winds will shift from southwesterly to eventually northwesterly as
the front passes through. Models are suggesting that cigs will lower
to MVFR during midday before clearing. With not a lot of confidence
in this scenario, will keep cigs just above this threshold for the
time being. Clear skies and light northerly winds can be expected in
the wake of the front tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......EER
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........EER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
355 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

INZ078-079-KYZ032-070-072-073-075-081-082-270800-
SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-TRIMBLE KY-LOGAN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-
MONROE KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
355 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012 /255 AM CDT THU APR 26 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORTHCOMING UPDATED FORECASTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

INZ076-077-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-071-074-076>078-270800-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-
HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-
OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-
HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-
ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-
MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-
HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-WARREN KY-
BARREN KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
355 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012 /255 AM CDT THU APR 26 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS. A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORTHCOMING UPDATED FORECASTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EARLY THIS MORNING.

EER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1045 PM EDT WED APR 25 2012

KYZ056-057-067-260300-
GARRARD-LINCOLN-MADISON-
1045 PM EDT WED APR 25 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 1039 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STANFORD...AND MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  STANFORD...
  CARTERSVILLE...
  SLATE LICK...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
76 AND 77.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3752 8428 3752 8430 3753 8434 3752 8435
      3750 8435 3747 8438 3748 8444 3737 8449
      3738 8469 3755 8468 3760 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 267DEG 44KT 3746 8450

MP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
246 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

INZ076-083-084-089-260715-
CRAWFORD-DUBOIS-ORANGE-PERRY-
246 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
HALF INCH HAIL...

AT 241 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WINSLOW...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND HALF INCH HAIL...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  JASPER...
  MILLERSPORT AND DUFF...
  MALTERSVILLE AND HUNTINGBURG...
  SAINT ANTHONY AND SAINT MARKS...
  SCHNELLVILLE AND BIRDSEYE...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
74 AND 79.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 8707 3851 8698 3849 8695 3851 8694
      3850 8688 3853 8684 3853 8669 3857 8668
      3855 8645 3813 8660 3815 8680 3820 8680
      3820 8702 3821 8708
TIME...MOT...LOC 0645Z 278DEG 57KT 3838 8713

EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
411 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 AM     HAIL             HARDINSBURG             37.78N  86.45W
04/26/2012  M0.70 INCH       BRECKINRIDGE       KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200504

EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
413 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 AM     HAIL             HARNED                  37.75N  86.42W
04/26/2012  M0.70 INCH       BRECKINRIDGE       KY   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200505

EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
420 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 AM     HAIL             MCDANIELS               37.60N  86.43W
04/26/2012  M1.00 INCH       BRECKINRIDGE       KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200506

EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
427 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 AM     HAIL             4 S HARNED              37.70N  86.42W
04/26/2012  M0.70 INCH       BRECKINRIDGE       KY   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200507

EER