Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Louisville, KY

834 
WWUS53 KLMK 260916
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
416 AM CDT THU APR 26 2012

KYC009-061-087-099-260930-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0198.000000T0000Z-120426T0930Z/
BARREN KY-EDMONSON KY-GREEN KY-HART KY-
416 AM CDT THU APR 26 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HART...WESTERN GREEN...SOUTHEASTERN EDMONSON AND
NORTHERN BARREN COUNTIES...

AT 414 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PASCAL TO STOVALL...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...

  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN BARREN...SOUTHEASTERN EDMONSON...
  SOUTHEASTERN HART AND WESTERN GREEN COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3704 8612 3706 8612 3707 8617 3720 8593
      3733 8574 3729 8561 3717 8572 3717 8574
      3714 8578 3711 8578 3695 8592
TIME...MOT...LOC 0916Z 303DEG 43KT 3723 8572 3705 8598
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

MJ

311 
WWUS53 KLMK 260924
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
424 AM CDT THU APR 26 2012

KYC009-061-087-099-260935-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0198.000000T0000Z-120426T0930Z/
BARREN KY-EDMONSON KY-GREEN KY-HART KY-
424 AM CDT THU APR 26 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HART...WESTERN
GREEN...SOUTHEASTERN EDMONSON AND NORTHERN BARREN COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 430 AM CDT...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NO LONGER
SEVERE. HOWEVER STRONG STORMS REMAIN IN THE AREA. THESE ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3704 8612 3706 8612 3707 8617 3720 8593
      3733 8574 3729 8561 3717 8572 3717 8574
      3714 8578 3711 8578 3695 8592
TIME...MOT...LOC 0925Z 303DEG 43KT 3717 8561 3699 8587

$$

MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
352 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

.Short Term (Today through Friday)...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Apr 26 2012

The immediate concern this morning is the strong to severe
thunderstorms moving into the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. The isolated earlier storms have congealed into a larger
bowing MCS. Relatively warm temperatures and a strong shortwave have
contributed to the enhancement of this system. These storms are
expected to continue to remain strong as they track east across the
forecast area. We have therefore expanded the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch across most of the forecast area this morning. This watch goes
through 13Z, with most of the storms expected to be exiting to the
east by this time. Large hail will still be a concern with these
storms. However, the wind threat is increasing as a bowing line
develops and winds may become the main concern as the system moves
east.

For the rest of the day, rain chances will rapidly decrease. We may
have some lingering showers or thunderstorms across east central
Kentucky through the afternoon hours. There is a bit of uncertainty
however as the atmosphere should be fairly worked over in the wake
of this morning's convection. Winds will shift this afternoon as the
cold front moves through. Winds are expected to become gusty ahead
of and behind this front. Gusts of 20-25 mph can be expected through
the late morning and afternoon hours. Highs today will be in the mid
70s north to the upper 70s in the south.

We will dry out tonight as the cold front sinks south of the area.
Skies will become partly cloudy to mostly clear with temperatures
dropping into the lower 40s in the north to the lower 50s in the
south. For Friday, the front to the south of the region will begin
to move back to the north as a warm front. Ahead of this front,
clouds will overspread the area. We should remain dry through mid
day. Showers and thunderstorms will then begin to move in from the
southwest. Think that coverage in the afternoon will be fairly
limited, so have reduced pops for tomorrow into the low chance range.

.Long Term (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Apr 26 2012

Friday Night through Sunday Night...

Combination and of deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to
show a bit of spread throughout the long term forecast period.  In
general, this will result in lower than normal forecast confidence.

Upper air pattern over the eastern third of the US will remain
generally zonal in nature with multiple short waves moving through
within the mean flow.  So we'll likely see heights rising and
lowering during the period with chances of precipitation occurring
as each wave passes through.

Previous forecast still looks fairly good compared to this evening's
model runs.  Stalled out frontal boundary to the south will likely
lift back northward as a warm front Friday evening as an area of low
pressure moves out of the Plains and into the upper Midwest.  Just
how far north this front will lift northward on Saturday is still
quite questionable.  This will lead to a large gradient of
temperatures across the region.  We could see as much as a 15-20
degree gradient from south to north with highs in the lower 60s in
the north and readings in the upper 70s to the lower 80s in the
south.  The front looks to sag back south of the area on Sunday
resulting a slightly drier forecast for now.  Highs Sunday will
range from the lower 60s in the north tot he upper 60s to around 70
in the south...with overnight lows dropping into the upper 40s to
the lower 50s.

Monday through Wednesday...

Did not make many changes through this period given the wide spreads
in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance.  The Ohio Valley
looks to remain in a baroclinic zone through the period as a surface
frontal boundary remains near the area.  This boundary will start
off to the south of the area at the beginning of the period and
gradually lift northward once again.  As multiple mid-level waves
aloft scoot past, they will likely result in off and showers and
storms.  The predictability of the timing of these waves is quite
low...thus plan on leaving low chance PoPs in the forecast
throughout the period for now.  It does appear that the front will
likely lift north of the Ohio Valley toward the end of the period
resulting in drier and warmer conditions as we head toward the end
of the workweek.  Highs Mon/Tue should warm into the 70s with upper
70s to the lower 80s returning by Wednesday.  Overnight lows will
generally be in the 50-60s.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 120 AM EDT Apr 26 2012

The challenge for the TAFs through the rest of the night will be
whether upstream storms will affect the TAF sites. The latest timing
in upstream convection suggests if the storms hold together they
should affect SDF around 08Z. Whether they will reach BWG or LEX is
a bit more in question. If they do, it should be a couple of hours
later than SDF. Will carry VCTS for a couple of hours for each of
the TAF sites to cover this convection. Ahead of the convection,
will continue to mention wind shear at BWG and LEX.

Through the day today, winds will increase in the late morning to
early afternoon hours ahead of and just behind the frontal passage.
Winds will gust to around 20 knots, with some higher gusts possible.
Winds will shift from southwesterly to eventually northwesterly as
the front passes through. Models are suggesting that cigs will lower
to MVFR during midday before clearing. With not a lot of confidence
in this scenario, will keep cigs just above this threshold for the
time being. Clear skies and light northerly winds can be expected in
the wake of the front tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......EER
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........EER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
355 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

INZ078-079-KYZ032-070-072-073-075-081-082-270800-
SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-TRIMBLE KY-LOGAN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-
MONROE KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
355 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012 /255 AM CDT THU APR 26 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORTHCOMING UPDATED FORECASTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

INZ076-077-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-071-074-076>078-270800-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-
HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-
OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-
HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-
ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-
MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-
HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-WARREN KY-
BARREN KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
355 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012 /255 AM CDT THU APR 26 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS. A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORTHCOMING UPDATED FORECASTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EARLY THIS MORNING.

EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
420 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 AM     HAIL             MCDANIELS               37.60N  86.43W
04/26/2012  M1.00 INCH       BRECKINRIDGE       KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200506

EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
427 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 AM     HAIL             4 S HARNED              37.70N  86.42W
04/26/2012  M0.70 INCH       BRECKINRIDGE       KY   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200507

EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
439 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 AM     HAIL             LEITCHFIELD             37.48N  86.29W
04/26/2012  M0.70 INCH       GRAYSON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200508

EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
451 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S MCDANIELS           37.59N  86.43W
04/26/2012                   BRECKINRIDGE       KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON HIGHWAY 259 NEAR MCDANIELS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200509

EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
455 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 AM     HAIL             BROWNSVILLE             37.19N  86.26W
04/26/2012  M0.88 INCH       EDMONSON           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200510

EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
458 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 AM     HAIL             PRICEVILLE              37.37N  85.98W
04/26/2012  M0.88 INCH       HART               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WERE REPORTED AS WELL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200511

EER