Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ENTERING NWRN ZONES
THIS EVENING AND EXITING THE SE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JONESBORO TO LITTLE ROCK TO TEXARKANA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...LATEST MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MLCAPES
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
8-9 C/KM RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

CURRENT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM GRENADA SOUTHWARD ALONG
I-55 INTO JACKSON...THEN TAILING BACK INTO SW MISSISSIPPI AND NE
LOUISIANA. THIS AXIS SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONGER
STORMS AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW SEVERE TS
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR REMAINING AREAS TO THE EAST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. ELSEWHERE...FESTERING CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
HAVE FINALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD LITTLE TIME TO RECOVER. DESPITE THIS...WILL NEED
TO CLOSELY MONITOR ACTIVITY NEAR GRENADA PUSHING INTO THAT AREA AND
CONSIDER A LOCAL EXTENSION OF THE SVR WATCH.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE REGION BRINGING BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING
BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. /DL/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD THAT RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY DRY
MID LEVEL NW FLOW REGIME OVER THE CWA. MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW COMING OUT OF AR SUNDAY...BUT
DAMPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE MS RIVER. AT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE CUTOFF THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WEAKENING DOES ENSUE THEREAFTER WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TRIES TO BACKDOOR INTO NE MS BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BELIEVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BETTER
MOISTURE POOLING.

SPRAWLING MID/UPPER RIDGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND INCREASED DIFFICULTY IN
NAILING DOWN ANY SHORTWAVES TO SPARK CONVECTION. WITH STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER NE MS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HARD TO RESOLVE IN THE
MODELS...WILL TAKE A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL APPROACH AND KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY./26/

&&

.AVIATION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA A LITTLE FASTER. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z FOR GLH. THE
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE I-55
CORRIDOR...SO GWO...HKS/JAN WILL BE EXPERIENCING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 2130Z. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CANS BE EXPECTED.
THE STORMS WILL IMPACT GTR...MEI AND HBG AROUND 23Z WITH THE SAME
CONDITIONS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
LINE THROUGH 2Z. WITH STORM ACTIVITY MOVING FASTER THAN
EXPECTED...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE NEXT FORECAST. /07/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/07/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
206 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
011915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
206 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED
HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS ALSO
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
529 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 WSW ELLISVILLE        31.56N 89.32W
05/31/2012                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON MONROE AND MOSELLE-SEMINARY ROADS

&&

AEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
535 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE LAUREL             31.65N 89.10W
05/31/2012                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON COUNTRY CIRCLE JUST OFF HIGHWAY 15 WITH A
            RESIDENTIAL NATURAL GAS LINE RUPTURED.

&&

DCOX

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