Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
105 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

.UPDATE...SEVERE TSTORM WATCH 328 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS UNTIL 01Z. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR THE MS RIVER DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS NOW INDICATING
MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8 C/KM.
CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ALONG THE RIVER AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE LIMITED OVER
EASTERN MS...WHERE MORNING STORMS HAVE LEFT A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SHIPPED OUT WITHIN THE NEXT
SEVERAL MINUTES. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012/
WE ARE STILL FACING A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST SITUATION FOR
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE PICTURE IS BECOMING A BIT CLEARER AT THIS
STAGE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AN MCS OVER THE ARKLATEX HAS ALMOST
COMPLETELY FALLEN APART TO OUR WEST...THOUGH A PORTION OF THE
COMPLEX HAS PERSISTED AND IS DIVING ACROSS SE TEXAS. AN MCV
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING NEAR EL DORADO ARKANSAS MOVING ENE. AHEAD OF
THE LEFTOVER OUTFLOW/COLD POOL...THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS POOLING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70. MLCAPES WERE
ALREADY APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF SW MISSISSIPPI
AND NE LOUISIANA.

MEANWHILE CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR AND OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY. THIS
CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY...PRIMARILY LEADING TO FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS...THOUGH THERE WERE A FEW REPORTS OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL
AS WELL. THESE STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR...BUT HAVE PERSISTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...WITH THE MCV AND OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS CONVECTION
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. THE BIGGEST REMAINING QUESTION MARK IS THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CONVECTION ONGOING RIGHT NOW OVER EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI. ESSENTIALLY NONE OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS
PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD HAMPER DEVELOPMENT IN THAT
AREA LATER ON TODAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IS STORMS NOT BEING INTERRUPTED BY
MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL...HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO
BEEF UP WORDING A BIT. ALREADY SENT AN FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. WILL SEND AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE SHORTLY TO ADD SEVERE
WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. IN ADDITION AS PER RECENT
COORDINATION WITH SPC...A SVR TS WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR LA
PARISHES AND SOME OF OUR WESTERN MS COUNTIES VALID THROUGH 6PM. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH NOON...MAINLY IMPACTING MEI AND GTR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL. WINDS
MAY GUST BRIEFLY TO ABOUT 25 MPH. AROUND 17Z THERE MAY BE A SHORT
BREAK ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
IMPACTING GLH...TVR...HEZ AROUND 20Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST. WILL
INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR GWO...JAN/HKS AROUND 22Z AND MEI...GTR
AROUND 00Z. ACTIVITY MAY TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER
00Z...MAY END RAIN FOR GLH AROUND 3Z...JAN/HKS/GWO AROUND 6Z AND
EVERYWHERE ELSE AROUND 9Z. AFTER 9Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND...AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE. /07/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012/
SHORT TERM...FOR FRI...SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR
THE E/SE AREAS EARLY BEFORE THE FRONT/DRIER AIR MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. LOOK FOR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A COOL NGT FRIDAY NGT.
/CME/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD THAT RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY DRY
MID LEVEL NW FLOW REGIME OVER THE CWA. MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW COMING OUT OF AR SUNDAY...BUT
DAMPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE MS RIVER. AT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE CUTOFF THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WEAKENING DOES ENSUE THEREAFTER WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TRIES TO BACKDOOR INTO NE MS BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BELIEVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BETTER
MOISTURE POOLING.

SPRAWLING MID/UPPER RIDGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND INCREASED DIFFICULTY IN
NAILING DOWN ANY SHORTWAVES TO SPARK CONVECTION. WITH STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER NE MS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HARD TO RESOLVE IN THE
MODELS...WILL TAKE A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL APPROACH AND KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY./26/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/07/CME/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
206 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
011915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
206 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED
HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS ALSO
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
148 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCOOBA                  32.83N 88.48W
05/30/2012                   KEMPER             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES DOWN

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE HAZLEHURST         31.82N 90.34W
05/30/2012                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN CRYSTAL SPRINGS AND HAZLEHURST ON RHYMES
            RD, ODOM RD, DEER RD, BARNES RD, AND RUNNELS RD.

&&

AWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
214 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSE NATCHEZ           31.48N 91.35W
05/31/2012  E50.00 MPH       ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWNED ACROSS KINGSTON RD NEAR GREENFIELD RD

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
217 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
05/31/2012  E0.75 INCH       WARREN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DL

MSZ061-312030-
FRANKLIN MS-
233 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
233 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUDE AT 232 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3136 9108 3161 9075 3161 9063 3136 9063
      3134 9067 3135 9098 3133 9098 3134 9102
      3133 9103 3133 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 234DEG 14KT 3134 9093

19

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