Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
105 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

.UPDATE...SEVERE TSTORM WATCH 328 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS UNTIL 01Z. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR THE MS RIVER DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS NOW INDICATING
MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8 C/KM.
CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ALONG THE RIVER AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE LIMITED OVER
EASTERN MS...WHERE MORNING STORMS HAVE LEFT A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SHIPPED OUT WITHIN THE NEXT
SEVERAL MINUTES. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012/
WE ARE STILL FACING A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST SITUATION FOR
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE PICTURE IS BECOMING A BIT CLEARER AT THIS
STAGE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AN MCS OVER THE ARKLATEX HAS ALMOST
COMPLETELY FALLEN APART TO OUR WEST...THOUGH A PORTION OF THE
COMPLEX HAS PERSISTED AND IS DIVING ACROSS SE TEXAS. AN MCV
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING NEAR EL DORADO ARKANSAS MOVING ENE. AHEAD OF
THE LEFTOVER OUTFLOW/COLD POOL...THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS POOLING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70. MLCAPES WERE
ALREADY APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF SW MISSISSIPPI
AND NE LOUISIANA.

MEANWHILE CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR AND OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY. THIS
CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY...PRIMARILY LEADING TO FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS...THOUGH THERE WERE A FEW REPORTS OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL
AS WELL. THESE STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR...BUT HAVE PERSISTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...WITH THE MCV AND OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS CONVECTION
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. THE BIGGEST REMAINING QUESTION MARK IS THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CONVECTION ONGOING RIGHT NOW OVER EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI. ESSENTIALLY NONE OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS
PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD HAMPER DEVELOPMENT IN THAT
AREA LATER ON TODAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IS STORMS NOT BEING INTERRUPTED BY
MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL...HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO
BEEF UP WORDING A BIT. ALREADY SENT AN FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. WILL SEND AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE SHORTLY TO ADD SEVERE
WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. IN ADDITION AS PER RECENT
COORDINATION WITH SPC...A SVR TS WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR LA
PARISHES AND SOME OF OUR WESTERN MS COUNTIES VALID THROUGH 6PM. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH NOON...MAINLY IMPACTING MEI AND GTR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL. WINDS
MAY GUST BRIEFLY TO ABOUT 25 MPH. AROUND 17Z THERE MAY BE A SHORT
BREAK ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
IMPACTING GLH...TVR...HEZ AROUND 20Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST. WILL
INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR GWO...JAN/HKS AROUND 22Z AND MEI...GTR
AROUND 00Z. ACTIVITY MAY TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER
00Z...MAY END RAIN FOR GLH AROUND 3Z...JAN/HKS/GWO AROUND 6Z AND
EVERYWHERE ELSE AROUND 9Z. AFTER 9Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND...AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE. /07/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012/
SHORT TERM...FOR FRI...SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR
THE E/SE AREAS EARLY BEFORE THE FRONT/DRIER AIR MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. LOOK FOR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A COOL NGT FRIDAY NGT.
/CME/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD THAT RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY DRY
MID LEVEL NW FLOW REGIME OVER THE CWA. MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW COMING OUT OF AR SUNDAY...BUT
DAMPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE MS RIVER. AT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE CUTOFF THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WEAKENING DOES ENSUE THEREAFTER WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TRIES TO BACKDOOR INTO NE MS BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BELIEVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BETTER
MOISTURE POOLING.

SPRAWLING MID/UPPER RIDGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND INCREASED DIFFICULTY IN
NAILING DOWN ANY SHORTWAVES TO SPARK CONVECTION. WITH STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER NE MS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HARD TO RESOLVE IN THE
MODELS...WILL TAKE A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL APPROACH AND KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY./26/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/07/CME/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
943 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
011015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
943 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
POTENT DISTURBANCE AND STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. THE
MAIN RISKS WILL BE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO
70 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN A
FEW AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

DL

ARZ075-LAZ008-009-MSZ034-040-311740-
CHICOT AR-WASHINGTON MS-ISSAQUENA MS-EAST CARROLL LA-WEST CARROLL LA-
1140 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1140 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHELBURN AT 1140
AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHERN CHICOT COUNTIES...AND NORTHEASTERN WEST CARROLL AND NORTHERN
EAST CARROLL PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3325 9146 3299 9091 3277 9118 3294 9145
      3297 9145 3298 9144 3299 9145 3299 9144
      3300 9144 3301 9145
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 229DEG 16KT 3293 9129

MME

MSZ018-034-311800-
WASHINGTON MS-BOLIVAR MS-
1216 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1216 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER LAMONT AT 1216 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN BOLIVAR AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3351 9077 3346 9110 3358 9117 3379 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 254DEG 13KT 3353 9106

MME

LAZ009-MSZ034-040-041-311830-
WASHINGTON MS-SHARKEY MS-ISSAQUENA MS-EAST CARROLL LA-
1244 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1244 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRACE AT 1244 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL ISSAQUENA...NORTHERN SHARKEY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES...AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN EAST CARROLL
PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3313 9097 3293 9067 3278 9103 3289 9111
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 219DEG 23KT 3288 9105

MME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1254 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE GREENVILLE        33.39N 91.04W
05/30/2012                   WASHINGTON         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF WATER OVER A FEW ROADS IN GREENVILLE AND
            NEARBY IN LELAND.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
103 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 PM     HAIL             RIDGELAND               32.42N 90.13W
05/30/2012  E0.75 INCH       MADISON            MS   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF PENNY SIZE HAIL AT THE INTERSECTION OF LAKE
            HARBOR ROAD AND HIGHWAY 51.

&&

DCOX

LAZ024-026-311915-
CONCORDIA LA-CATAHOULA LA-
116 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
116 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 15 MILES WEST OF
ROSEFIELD TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACME AT 115 PM CDT...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CATAHOULA AND CONCORDIA PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THESE
STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3193 9201 3193 9183 3187 9178 3193 9160
      3180 9158 3175 9151 3140 9147 3137 9147
      3143 9155 3128 9151 3126 9165 3119 9158
      3111 9162 3105 9156 3104 9172 3119 9169
      3129 9191 3122 9197 3130 9202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 269DEG 15KT 3184 9224 3114 9198

MME