Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN AS AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN ON THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY AND EXIT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A
MEAN TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NE US. ENERGY OVER THE UPR MS
VLY TO DIG SE WITH UPR LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

EMBEDDED MID LEVEL S/W AHD OF THIS DIGGING FEATURE ALONG WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING (CLOUDS VS. SUNNY) HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCTD DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND SE OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR.
MODERATE INSTBY IS IN PLACE WITH ML CAPES OF 200-2500 J/KG. A FEW
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS ALSO A THREAT.

SFC WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID MS VLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING
UPR SYSTEM. THIS WAVE TO TRACK NE THRU OHIO TO A POSITION NEAR LE
BY FRI MORNING WITH TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO OHIO
LATE. BETTER DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY WITH 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR AHD
OF THE SFC FRONT BUT INSTBY BECOMES MARGINAL. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP POPS IN LKLY TO CATEGORICAL WITH BEST POPS OVER
THE NORTH.

GUID TEMPS CLOSE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER
60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MIGRATE SLOWLY THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.
SFC WAVE NEAR LAKE ERIE FRIDAY MORNING TO TRACK THRU THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU
ILN/S FA FRIDAY MORNING. WL CONTINUE LKLY POPS EARLY WITH FROPA
AND THEN DROP OFF POPS TO SLIGHT CHC. WL CONTINUE CHC POPS INTO
AFTN WITH INFLUENCE OF UPR LOW AND SFC TROF DROPPING SE THRU ILN/S
FA. CAA AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY. HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 70
NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST EXTENSIVE TO THE
UPPER 70S FAR SOUTH.

AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. WILL DIMINISH CHC OF SHOWERS TO SLIGHT CHC ACRS FROM
THE SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE.
EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPR
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD /12Z SATURDAY/ OVER THE
THUMB OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND +11C
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS GOING
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED A
SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING OVER CNTRL OH NEAREST
STRONGEST CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUBTLE FORCING BEFORE LOW BEGINS TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST A BIT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LITTLE WARMER ON
SUNDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS 850MB TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES. A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAY AS WELL
SHOULD AID IN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CRESTING THE LARGE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL DIVE AND AMPLIFY A BIT
INTO THE ERN CONUS L/W TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
ENHANCED FLOW AND EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND MAY PROMOTE A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING MONDAY AND CARRYING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS IN SOME DETERMINISTIC RUNS THAT RAIN CHANCE MAY CARRY
/OR EVEN MORE FOCUSED ON/ TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A
MORE STABLE SIGNAL OF MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING FOR RAIN CHANCES...AND
IT/S A RATHER LOW CHANCE GIVEN SUBTLE FORCING. INTO WED AND THURS
OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT NERN FRINGE OF WRN CONUS RIDGE TO BEGIN
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA...WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPS TO 16C-
17C...SUPPORTING MORE NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS 85-90 IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SPOTTY LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TRYING TO GET GOING ATTM FROM
THE MIAMI VALLEY DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST INDIANA. THIS IS ALONG THE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND WOULD EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON AS THEY PROGRESS EAST INTO SOME BETTER INSTABILITY.
IT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. HAVE TRIED TO PINPOINT A FEW HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE TAF SITES. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO HANG IN THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING FRIDAY. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-102000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
400 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
605 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND GST     KILN WILMINGTON APT     39.43N 83.79W
08/09/2012  M49 MPH          CLINTON            OH   ASOS

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
612 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GEORGETOWN              38.87N 83.90W
08/09/2012                   BROWN              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE LIMB DOWN.

&&

KURZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
622 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

OHZ065-074-092300-
FAIRFIELD OH-HOCKING OH-
622 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HOCKING AND SOUTHEASTERN
FAIRFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 621 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LAURELVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...HOCKING HILLS STATE
PARK...SUGAR GROVE...ROCKBRIDGE...CARBON HILL AND LOGAN.

ALSO...SOUTH BLOOMINGVILLE...ENTERPRISE...LAKE LOGAN STATE PARK...
UNION FURNACE...OREVILLE...STARR...HAYDENVILLE AND HIDEAWAY HILLS ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. WATER WILL
POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3947 8216 3947 8227 3938 8229 3939 8250
      3937 8252 3937 8275 3955 8273 3956 8276
      3959 8276 3965 8257 3972 8238 3960 8237
      3960 8226 3956 8225 3956 8215

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
625 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEST UNION              38.79N 83.54W
08/09/2012  E55 MPH          ADAMS              OH   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SNYDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
627 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

OHZ063-064-072-073-080-092330-
CLINTON OH-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY OH-ROSS OH-HIGHLAND OH-
627 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HIGHLAND...NORTHERN
ROSS...PICKAWAY...FAYETTE AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 625 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WASHINGTON
COURT HOUSE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...GREENFIELD...WASHINGTON
COURT HOUSE...BLOOMINGBURG...NEW HOLLAND...WILLIAMSPORT...SOUTH
BLOOMFIELD...LOGAN ELM VILLAGE...KINGSTON...CIRCLEVILLE AND ASHVILLE.

ALSO...ROCK MILLS...GOOD HOPE...PANCOASTBURG...FRANKFORT...DEER CREEK
LAKE...CLARKSBURG...HALLSVILLE AND ANDERSONVILLE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. WATER WILL
POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3973 8293 3940 8279 3934 8358 3958 8362

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
635 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

OHZ073-080-092315-
ROSS OH-HIGHLAND OH-
635 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HIGHLAND AND
SOUTHERN ROSS COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 633 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF
RAINSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BAINBRIDGE...NORTH FORK
VILLAGE AND CHILLICOTHE.

ALSO...SOUTH SALEM...BOURNEVILLE...SUMMITHILL...KNOCKEMSTIFF...
MOORESVILLE...SCIOTO TRAIL STATE PARK...MASSIEVILLE AND LONDONDERRY
ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3917 8276 3918 8313 3920 8334 3919 8336
      3919 8350 3935 8349 3941 8275

ASL