Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN AS AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN ON THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY AND EXIT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A
MEAN TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NE US. ENERGY OVER THE UPR MS
VLY TO DIG SE WITH UPR LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

EMBEDDED MID LEVEL S/W AHD OF THIS DIGGING FEATURE ALONG WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING (CLOUDS VS. SUNNY) HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCTD DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND SE OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR.
MODERATE INSTBY IS IN PLACE WITH ML CAPES OF 200-2500 J/KG. A FEW
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS ALSO A THREAT.

SFC WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID MS VLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING
UPR SYSTEM. THIS WAVE TO TRACK NE THRU OHIO TO A POSITION NEAR LE
BY FRI MORNING WITH TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO OHIO
LATE. BETTER DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY WITH 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR AHD
OF THE SFC FRONT BUT INSTBY BECOMES MARGINAL. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP POPS IN LKLY TO CATEGORICAL WITH BEST POPS OVER
THE NORTH.

GUID TEMPS CLOSE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER
60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MIGRATE SLOWLY THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.
SFC WAVE NEAR LAKE ERIE FRIDAY MORNING TO TRACK THRU THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU
ILN/S FA FRIDAY MORNING. WL CONTINUE LKLY POPS EARLY WITH FROPA
AND THEN DROP OFF POPS TO SLIGHT CHC. WL CONTINUE CHC POPS INTO
AFTN WITH INFLUENCE OF UPR LOW AND SFC TROF DROPPING SE THRU ILN/S
FA. CAA AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY. HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 70
NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST EXTENSIVE TO THE
UPPER 70S FAR SOUTH.

AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. WILL DIMINISH CHC OF SHOWERS TO SLIGHT CHC ACRS FROM
THE SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE.
EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPR
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD /12Z SATURDAY/ OVER THE
THUMB OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND +11C
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS GOING
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED A
SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING OVER CNTRL OH NEAREST
STRONGEST CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUBTLE FORCING BEFORE LOW BEGINS TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST A BIT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LITTLE WARMER ON
SUNDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS 850MB TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES. A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAY AS WELL
SHOULD AID IN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CRESTING THE LARGE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL DIVE AND AMPLIFY A BIT
INTO THE ERN CONUS L/W TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
ENHANCED FLOW AND EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND MAY PROMOTE A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING MONDAY AND CARRYING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS IN SOME DETERMINISTIC RUNS THAT RAIN CHANCE MAY CARRY
/OR EVEN MORE FOCUSED ON/ TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A
MORE STABLE SIGNAL OF MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING FOR RAIN CHANCES...AND
IT/S A RATHER LOW CHANCE GIVEN SUBTLE FORCING. INTO WED AND THURS
OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT NERN FRINGE OF WRN CONUS RIDGE TO BEGIN
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA...WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPS TO 16C-
17C...SUPPORTING MORE NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS 85-90 IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SPOTTY LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TRYING TO GET GOING ATTM FROM
THE MIAMI VALLEY DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST INDIANA. THIS IS ALONG THE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND WOULD EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON AS THEY PROGRESS EAST INTO SOME BETTER INSTABILITY.
IT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. HAVE TRIED TO PINPOINT A FEW HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE TAF SITES. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO HANG IN THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING FRIDAY. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-102000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
400 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
509 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     HAIL             MILFORD                 39.17N 84.28W
08/09/2012  E0.88 INCH       CLERMONT           OH   PUBLIC

&&

SNYDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
512 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

OHZ055-056-064-065-092200-
FAIRFIELD OH-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING OH-PICKAWAY OH-
512 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PICKAWAY...
SOUTHEASTERN LICKING...SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN FAIRFIELD
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 510 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LITHOPOLIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...CANAL WINCHESTER...
PICKERINGTON...BALTIMORE...PLEASANTVILLE...NEWARK...MILLERSPORT...
HEBRON...HEATH...HARBOR HILLS...HANOVER...FAIRFIELD BEACH AND BUCKEYE
LAKE.

ALSO...LITHOPOLIS...FAIRFIELD COUNTY AIRPORT...CARROLL...
BROWNSVILLE...FALLSBURG...THURSTON...KIRKERSVILLE AND GRATIOT ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. WATER WILL
POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3995 8220 3994 8223 3991 8224 3993 8246
      3984 8247 3983 8241 3965 8282 3979 8297
      4024 8218

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
514 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

OHZ071-072-077>079-092200-
BROWN OH-CLINTON OH-HAMILTON OH-WARREN OH-CLERMONT OH-
514 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CLERMONT...SOUTHEASTERN
WARREN...EASTERN HAMILTON...SOUTHERN CLINTON AND NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 508 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MILFORD
AND BLANCHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...LOVELAND...
FAYETTEVILLE...ST. MARTIN AND WILMINGTON.

ALSO...OWENSVILLE...SPRINGVALE...GOSHEN...NEWTONSVILLE...
DALLASBURG...MURDOCK...EDENTON AND PLEASANT PLAIN ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3928 8433 3943 8363 3922 8383 3925 8384
      3924 8386 3917 8388 3906 8432

ASL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
520 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             ASHVILLE                39.72N 82.96W
08/09/2012  E0.50 INCH       PICKAWAY           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0511 PM     HAIL             4 SE MILFORD            39.13N 84.23W
08/09/2012  E0.25 INCH       CLERMONT           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2N INTERSECTION SR32/I275 QUARTER INCH HAIL 1.09 INCH OF
            RAIN PAST HOUR

&&

HUGHES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
527 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             INDEPENDENCE            38.95N 84.55W
08/09/2012  E0.88 INCH       KENTON             KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

SNYDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
529 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

OHZ071-072-092215-
CLINTON OH-WARREN OH-
529 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WARREN AND CLINTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 525 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MIDLAND...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WILMINGTON.

ALSO...CUBA...MARTINSVILLE...OGDEN...MORRISVILLE...BURTONVILLE...NEW
ANTIOCH AND MELVIN ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3933 8409 3955 8374 3938 8359 3937 8360
      3927 8380

ASL