Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
728 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT AHEAD OF AN
ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAD DROPPED SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING AND AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE RISK OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LAY OUT AS A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
ALSO SEE A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND CROSSING THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY FRI. MODELS
HANDLE THE TRACK OF THE LOW A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY WHICH WILL IMPACT
WHERE GREATEST PRECIPITATION OCCURS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.

WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THURSDAY...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS
IN THE 80S EXCEPT AROUND 90 IN THE FAR SE. THE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO BE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AT 12Z FRIDAY
WITH SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND...LEAVING MAINLY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN
ITS WAKE. WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AS
CLOUDS... PRECIPITATION...AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. FORECASTED HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
RIGHT NOW ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z
ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE QUICKER TO PUSH THE SYSTEM OUT OF
THE AREA THAN THE LATEST NAM/GFS...SO DECIDED TO KEEP JUST SLIGHT
POPS INTO SATURDAY FOR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA.

EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW PUSHES AWAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
SUNDAY THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE START OF
A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 80S.

ONLY OTHER FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS BRINGS A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE REGION. NEITHER FEATURE HAS BEEN QUITE AS
DEVELOPED IN THE PAST TWO ECMWF RUNS AND THUS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
AS THE PAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND THE FEATURES ARE
AT LEAST EVIDENT IN THE ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS NOT VERY
HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
CU WILL GENERALLY DISSOLVE AFTER SUNSET WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING. A DISTURBANCE
RIDING NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS INDIANA AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERN OHIO. MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN
RESOLVING THIS ACTIVITY AND FORECASTING ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT.
HOWEVER LOOKING AT RADAR TRENDS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AT LEAST KDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
FOG/MIST COULD DEVELOP AT KILN/KLUK LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON...AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AT SOME POINT FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...SO HAVE ADDED VCTS TO ALL TAFS DURING THAT TIME.
MORE FINE TUNED ADJUSTMENTS TO THAT TIME PERIOD WILL OCCUR AT A
LATER TAF ISSUANCE.

.OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PARKER
NEAR TERM...PARKER
SHORT TERM...PARKER
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...LATTO