Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
402 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. THE FRONT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF THE I-71
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SANK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. KEPT POPS IN LIKELY CATEGORY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASED POPS TO CHANCE OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
HAVE BEEN SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9
PM THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
DROPS SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLD ADVECTION
AND CLOUDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY BE BORDERLINE FOR A HEAT ADVISORY IN THE SW ONLY ON THURSDAY
AND DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ELSEWHERE. THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO LOOK CLOSELY AT WHETHER A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
EXCEPT LOWER 90S SOUTH.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SINKS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS FAIRLY GOOD...WITH
SMALL SPREADS IN GFS ENSEMBLE PLOTS EVEN THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE THE CONTINUED DOMINANCE OF A CENTRAL
US RIDGE...WITH VARYING EFFECTS ON THE OHIO VALLEY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AS
FRIDAY BEGINS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION FOCUSED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...LEADING INTO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE
WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF...LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING THE CWA
TO ENTER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. WHILE THESE FEATURES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BRING SOME
PERIODS OF CONVECTION TO THE REGION...THESE INDIVIDUAL DETAILS ARE
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT CORRECTLY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. SO...SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WILL BE USED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUICK AVIATION DISCUSSION WITH A WATCH OUT AND SOME CONVECTION
ALREADY GOING. UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE TAF REGION AHEAD OF
A CDFNT WILL PROMOTE SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTN. BEST
COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

TSTMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AFTER 02Z. REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
TSTM AFT 02Z...BUT THERE MIGHT BE A LINGERING TSTM OVERNIGHT.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION INTO THU. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. ADDED VCTS AFT
14-15Z ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ061-
     077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PARKER
NEAR TERM...PARKER
SHORT TERM...PARKER
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
901 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088-191315-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-
PIKE-SCIOTO-
901 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

OHZ061-077-191315-
MONTGOMERY-HAMILTON-
901 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND
SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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