Excessive Heat Warning 8, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1031 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SE OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H5 S/W WORKING THRU THE NW FLOW. IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS CONVECTION WILL RUN ITS COARSE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REFIRE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A CDFNT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH COMBINES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. KEPT THE AFTN POPS LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN 2/3
TAPERING DOWN TO CHC POPS IN KY.

LOWERED HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO...IN THE LOWER 90S...IN PORTIONS OF
CNTL KY WHERE THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD DOWN TEMPS. FOR
THE REST OF THE FA...KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS CAPES APPROACH 4000 J/KG AND WIND FIELDS
BECOME MORE ROBUST. COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...SFC FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. NAM AND CANADIAN SEEM TO BE QUICK OUTLIERS IN
DEPARTING MOISTURE FROM THE AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD HELP
ACTIVATE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
UNFAVORABLE TIMING...HAVE BROAD LOW POPS IN THE MORNING (EXCEPT IN
THE NORTHERN TIER) THEN QUICKLY FOCUSING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER BY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH. HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AREA
WIDE...DUE TO CAA IN THE NORTH AND LINGERING CLOUDS/POSSIBLE
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS/EASTERN ROCKIES...PLACING THE CWA UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE (GIVING VALUES NOT
TOO FAR FROM HPC) GIVEN A SIMILAR PATTERN LAST WEEK IN WHICH MODELS
OVERESTIMATED THE EFFECT OF CAA IN LIEU OF SOLAR HEATING ON VERY DRY
GROUND CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE IN CANADA
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
ALLOW WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPILL EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS WILL TRY TO PUSH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE U.S. ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH ON
MONDAY (CLOSER TO FRONT/MOISTURE)...ALTHOUGH IF THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS STRONG...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY REMAIN CAPPED. BETTER MOISTURE
AXIS WORKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND THEREFORE INTRODUCED 30 POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN CWA. THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE MUCH AIRMASS MODIFICATION
THOUGH...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 90 WITH OVERNIGHTS
BECOMING MUGGY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOPED AHD OF A WEAK S/W AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE LWR MS VLY. MU CAPES ARE
STILL IN 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SO EXPECT
TO SEE CONTD SLOW MOVING STORMS THRU THE MORNING. HAVE AN EARLY
MENTION AT KILN AND KCMH/KLCK. WITH THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECT
VFR CIGS WITH BASES AOA 5000 FEET. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL SAG DOWN
TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE A MENTION OF VCTS DURG THE
AFTN INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION. CONVECTION
WILL LKLY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO SO HAVE CONTD MENTION OF VCTS WITH VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ061-
     077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
901 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088-191315-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-
PIKE-SCIOTO-
901 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

OHZ061-077-191315-
MONTGOMERY-HAMILTON-
901 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND
SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
716 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

OHZ078-079-181145-
BROWN OH-CLERMONT OH-
716 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CLERMONT AND WESTERN
BROWN COUNTIES THROUGH 745 AM EDT...

AT 712 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
OWENSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WILLIAMSBURG AND
BETHEL.

ALSO...LINDALE...EAST FORK STATE PARK...BANTAM...NICHOLSVILLE...
SALTAIR...LOCUST RIDGE AND GREENBUSH ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3909 8430 3924 8418 3911 8387 3909 8387
      3888 8411

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
750 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

KYZ097-099-OHZ078-079-181215-
MASON KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-CLERMONT OH-
750 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CLERMONT...WESTERN
BROWN...NORTHEASTERN BRACKEN AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES
THROUGH 815 AM EDT...

AT 748 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HAMERSVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...FELICITY...AUGUSTA AND
GEORGETOWN.

ALSO...POINT ISABEL...HAMERSVILLE...FEESBURG...UTOPIA...CHATHAM...
WOOLCUTT...STONEY POINT AND ROCK SPRINGS ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3875 8382 3869 8410 3899 8418 3904 8395