Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Wilmington, OH

224 
WWUS51 KILN 182009
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
409 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

OHC025-061-165-182030-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-120718T2030Z/
HAMILTON OH-WARREN OH-CLERMONT OH-
409 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN CLERMONT...SOUTHERN WARREN AND EASTERN HAMILTON
COUNTIES...

AT 405 PM EDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPRINGVALE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MILFORD...WITHAMSVILLE...TERRACE PARK...ANDERSON TOWNSHIP...BATAVIA
AND AMELIA.

IN ADDITION...NEWTONSVILLE...MIAMIVILLE...MULBERRY...MOUNT REPOSE...
DAY HEIGHTS...THE VILLAGE OF INDIAN HILLS...BANTAM AND EAST FORK
STATE PARK ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 8438 3929 8431 3927 8406 3897 8408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 013DEG 15KT 3923 8422

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SE OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H5 S/W WORKING THRU THE NW FLOW. IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS CONVECTION WILL RUN ITS COARSE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A CDFNT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH COMBINES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. KEPT THE AFTN POPS LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN 2/3
TAPERING DOWN TO CHC POPS IN KY.

LOWERED HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO...IN THE LOWER 90S...IN PORTIONS OF
CNTL KY WHERE THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD DOWN TEMPS. FOR
THE REST OF THE FA...KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS CAPES APPROACH 4000 J/KG AND WIND FIELDS
BECOME MORE ROBUST. COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...SFC FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. NAM AND CANADIAN SEEM TO BE QUICK OUTLIERS IN
DEPARTING MOISTURE FROM THE AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD HELP
ACTIVATE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
UNFAVORABLE TIMING...HAVE BROAD LOW POPS IN THE MORNING (EXCEPT IN
THE NORTHERN TIER) THEN QUICKLY FOCUSING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER BY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH. HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AREA
WIDE...DUE TO CAA IN THE NORTH AND LINGERING CLOUDS/POSSIBLE
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS/EASTERN ROCKIES...PLACING THE CWA UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE (GIVING VALUES NOT
TOO FAR FROM HPC) GIVEN A SIMILAR PATTERN LAST WEEK IN WHICH MODELS
OVERESTIMATED THE EFFECT OF CAA IN LIEU OF SOLAR HEATING ON VERY DRY
GROUND CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE IN CANADA
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
ALLOW WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPILL EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS WILL TRY TO PUSH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE U.S. ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH ON
MONDAY (CLOSER TO FRONT/MOISTURE)...ALTHOUGH IF THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS STRONG...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY REMAIN CAPPED. BETTER MOISTURE
AXIS WORKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND THEREFORE INTRODUCED 30 POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN CWA. THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE MUCH AIRMASS MODIFICATION
THOUGH...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 90 WITH OVERNIGHTS
BECOMING MUGGY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUICK AVIATION DISCUSSION WITH A WATCH OUT AND SOME CONVECTION
ALREADY GOING. UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE TAF REGION AHEAD OF
A CDFNT WILL PROMOTE SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTN. BEST
COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

TSTMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AFTER 02Z. REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
TSTM AFT 02Z...BUT THERE MIGHT BE A LINGERING TSTM OVERNIGHT.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION INTO THU. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. ADDED VCTS AFT
14-15Z ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ061-
     077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
901 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088-191315-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-
PIKE-SCIOTO-
901 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

OHZ061-077-191315-
MONTGOMERY-HAMILTON-
901 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND
SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
318 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

OHZ046-055-181945-
DELAWARE OH-FRANKLIN OH-
318 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN
DELAWARE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 314 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR POWELL...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WORTHINGTON...MINERVA
PARK...WESTERVILLE AND GAHANNA.

ALSO...LEWIS CENTER...RIVERLEA...ALUM CREEK STATE PARK...GALENA AND
HUBER RIDGE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. WATER WILL
POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

LAT...LON 4024 8280 3999 8282 4008 8316 4025 8316

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
327 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     HAIL             3 E LEBANON             39.42N 84.15W
07/18/2012  E0.88 INCH       WARREN             OH   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MIKEG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
335 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

OHZ055-056-065-182000-
FAIRFIELD OH-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING OH-
335 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN LICKING...EASTERN
FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 333 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ETNA...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...PATASKALA...BEECHWOOD
TRAILS...PICKERINGTON...PLEASANTVILLE...MILLERSPORT...HEBRON...HARBOR
HILLS...FAIRFIELD BEACH...BUCKEYE LAKE AND BALTIMORE.

ALSO...ETNA...THURSTON AND KIRKERSVILLE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3991 8241 3993 8243 3992 8246 3986 8246
      3975 8256 3996 8287 4011 8273 3995 8237

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
336 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E LEBANON             39.42N 84.15W
07/18/2012  M0.82 INCH       WARREN             OH   NWS EMPLOYEE

            RAIN OCCURRED IN 15 MINUTES.

&&

MIKEG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
346 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

OHZ056-182015-
LICKING OH-
346 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN LICKING COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 342 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR STATE
ROUTE 310 AT STATE ROUTE 161...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...PATASKALA...BEECHWOOD
TRAILS...HEBRON...GRANVILLE SOUTH...GRANVILLE AND BUCKEYE LAKE.

ALSO...ALEXANDRIA IS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3993 8248 3999 8277 4017 8275 4015 8242

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
349 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N NEW BREMEN          40.48N 84.38W
07/18/2012                   AUGLAIZE           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW 6 INCH DIAMETER LIMBS DOWN NORTH OF NEW BREMEN.

&&

JDR