Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
401 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TOMORROW MORNING/...
IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEGUN TO REBOUND AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING. THE
MAIN STORY WITH THIS EVENINGS WEATHER HOWEVER IS A DISORGANIZED
AREA OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER
ILLINIOS...INDIANA...AND KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY IS MARCHING
EASTWARD...AND IS POISED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTER PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNSET. THUS FAR...THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS REACHES THE WESTERN ZONES.,..A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE...AS WE WILL LOSE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND THE STORMS WILL BE ENTERING AN ATMOSPHERE THAT NEVER
FULLY RECOVERED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL COULD STILL
OCCUR...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY POSE FLASH FLOOD
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY FELL
EARLIER TODAY...AND IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK. IN ADDITION...A SECOND
WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS MISSOURI. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AS THE
ANTICIPATED EVENING CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT QPFS COULD RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOME OF OUR ZONES FOR TONIGHT.

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW...HAVE KEPT GENERAL LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TOMORROW AM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIFFICULT TO TIME DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THESE WAVES PROVIDING THE
FOCUS OF STORMS FARTHER NORTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WOULD THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WOULD BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS.

THE RIDGE WILL THEN AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH RISING
HEIGHTS UNDER THE RIDGE...EXPECT OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THE DEVELOPING CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN ITS
EASTWARD PUSH AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. WOULD THINK
SLOWER SEEMS TO BE BETTER GIVEN THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST.
WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AND A CONTINUE WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY GENERATING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE AND
TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS CLEARED ALL THE TAF SITES AND THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET ACROSS THE
AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WHILE IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO LINGERING WIDESPREAD CIRRUS...THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. LATEST MODEL RUNS
OFFER NO CLEAR SIGNALS IN TERMS OF COVERAGE/TIMING/LOCATION
THOUGH...SO ONLY INTRODUCED VCTS WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP
AFTER 00Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH.
HOWEVER...KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ073-074-
     077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...KURZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ073-074-077>082-088-162015-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-ROSS-
HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
408 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. THIS COULD PRODUCE RAPID RISES IN AREA
STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-
162015-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-
408 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1230 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CINCINNATI              39.14N 84.51W
03/15/2012                   HAMILTON           OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER POURING OVER BEECHMONT AVENUE NEAR STANLEY ROAD

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CINCINNATI              39.14N 84.51W
03/15/2012                   HAMILTON           OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            6 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS FT WASHINGTON WAY AND
            I-471 ONRAMP.

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CINCINNATI              39.14N 84.51W
03/15/2012                   HAMILTON           OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1.5 FEET OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS FT WASHINGTON WAY.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
232 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

OHZ064-065-073-074-151930-
FAIRFIELD OH-HOCKING OH-PICKAWAY OH-ROSS OH-
232 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ROSS...PICKAWAY...
WESTERN HOCKING AND SOUTHWESTERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM
EDT...

AT 228 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR STATE
ROUTE 207 AT US ROUTE 22...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WILLIAMSPORT...SOUTH
BLOOMFIELD...ASHVILLE...LOGAN ELM VILLAGE...CIRCLEVILLE AND KINGSTON.

ALSO...CLARKSBURG...DARBYVILLE...COMMERCIAL POINT...DUVALL...PICKAWAY
COUNTY AIRPORT...AW MARION STATE PARK...SLATE RUN METRO PARK AND
RINGGOLD ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3978 8262 3941 8269 3952 8326 3981 8324

LATTO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
329 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

OHZ042-051-060-061-152015-
DARKE OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-PREBLE OH-
329 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PREBLE...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...WESTERN MIAMI AND SOUTHEASTERN DARKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 325 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CASTINE...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...ARCANUM...WEST
MILTON...TROY...TIPP CITY...PLEASANT HILL...PIQUA AND COVINGTON.

ALSO...ITHACA...ABBOTTSVILLE...GORDON...VERONA...PITSBURG...UNION
CORNERS...PHILLIPSBURG AND POTSDAM ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4019 8420 3992 8412 3983 8464 4001 8470

LATTO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
349 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

OHZ054-063-064-152030-
FAYETTE OH-MADISON OH-PICKAWAY OH-
349 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PICKAWAY...SOUTHERN
MADISON AND NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 341 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BLOOMINGBURG AND MOUNT
STERLING.

ALSO...BOOKWALTER...MIDWAY...MADISON MILLS...DERBY...DEER CREEK LAKE
AND PANCOASTBURG ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3981 8319 3957 8320 3960 8363 3971 8362

LATTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HAIL             1 W JEFFERSONVILLE      39.65N 83.58W
03/15/2012  E0.75 INCH       FAYETTE            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
418 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

OHZ026-035-044-152100-
AUGLAIZE OH-HARDIN OH-LOGAN OH-
418 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHWESTERN LOGAN...
WESTERN HARDIN AND NORTHERN AUGLAIZE COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 414 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOULTON...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WAPAKONETA...
CRIDERSVILLE...WAYNESFIELD...ALGER AND ADA.

ALSO...FRYBURG...ST. JOHNS...UNIOPOLIS AND ROUNDHEAD ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4052 8378 4049 8430 4063 8435 4067 8422
      4066 8422 4066 8411 4065 8410 4065 8389
      4076 8389 4078 8383

LATTO