Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
130 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
TO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH FORECAST LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S BEING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. WE MAY THEN SEE A BIT
OF A LULL IN THE PCPN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS WE BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON THURSDAY. AN AXIS OF BETTER INSTABILITIES
WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK BUT SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES ARE PRESENT ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED...BUT WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY SEVERE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN AREA OF BETTER
INSTABILITIES/SHEAR. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN TRY TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 850 TEMPS
ACTUALLY DROP OFF A TAD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER
THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL
FLOW WITH A DEEP TROUGH /CUTOFF LOW/ DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
STATES AND STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRAW PLENTY
OF WARM...MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL FLOW
PATTERNS ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN THEY
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE STRONG RIDGE AND
TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
PRECIP POTENTIAL...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON TIMING...
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST POTENT DISTURBANCE LOOKS
TO RIDE THE RIDGE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SO WENT
WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS DURING THAT TIME. GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CAPE PRESENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO INCLUDED MENTION OF TSTMS IN
THE FORECAST. GIVEN LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ORGANIZED FORCING
MECHANISM AND UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEPT FORECAST GENERALLY DRY BEYOND THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO
RECORD VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL PASS BY THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND THUS PROBABILITY OF ANY OF THIS
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS HAVE OPTED TO USE VCSH IN INITIAL
ISSUANCE.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUT WEAK FORCING MEANS THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN COVERAGE/TIMING/LOCATION. THUS HAVE KEPT THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS DRY FOR NOW. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...

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