Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
401 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TOMORROW MORNING/...
IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEGUN TO REBOUND AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING. THE
MAIN STORY WITH THIS EVENINGS WEATHER HOWEVER IS A DISORGANIZED
AREA OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER
ILLINIOS...INDIANA...AND KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY IS MARCHING
EASTWARD...AND IS POISED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTER PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNSET. THUS FAR...THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS REACHES THE WESTERN ZONES.,..A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE...AS WE WILL LOSE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND THE STORMS WILL BE ENTERING AN ATMOSPHERE THAT NEVER
FULLY RECOVERED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL COULD STILL
OCCUR...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY POSE FLASH FLOOD
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY FELL
EARLIER TODAY...AND IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK. IN ADDITION...A SECOND
WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS MISSOURI. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AS THE
ANTICIPATED EVENING CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT QPFS COULD RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOME OF OUR ZONES FOR TONIGHT.

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW...HAVE KEPT GENERAL LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TOMORROW AM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIFFICULT TO TIME DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THESE WAVES PROVIDING THE
FOCUS OF STORMS FARTHER NORTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WOULD THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WOULD BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS.

THE RIDGE WILL THEN AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH RISING
HEIGHTS UNDER THE RIDGE...EXPECT OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THE DEVELOPING CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN ITS
EASTWARD PUSH AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. WOULD THINK
SLOWER SEEMS TO BE BETTER GIVEN THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST.
WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AND A CONTINUE WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY GENERATING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE AND
TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS CLEARED ALL THE TAF SITES AND THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET ACROSS THE
AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WHILE IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO LINGERING WIDESPREAD CIRRUS...THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. LATEST MODEL RUNS
OFFER NO CLEAR SIGNALS IN TERMS OF COVERAGE/TIMING/LOCATION
THOUGH...SO ONLY INTRODUCED VCTS WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP
AFTER 00Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH.
HOWEVER...KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ073-074-
     077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...KURZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ073-074-077>082-088-162015-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-ROSS-
HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
408 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. THIS COULD PRODUCE RAPID RISES IN AREA
STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-
162015-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-
408 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
509 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             WAYNESFIELD             40.60N 83.97W
03/15/2012  E1.75 INCH       AUGLAIZE           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ASL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
514 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             WAYNESFIELD             40.60N 83.97W
03/15/2012  U1.00 INCH       AUGLAIZE           OH   PUBLIC

&&

BC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
541 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             MCCARTYVILLE            40.39N 84.26W
03/15/2012  E1.25 INCH       SHELBY             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MYRONP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
548 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     HAIL             WAPAKONETA              40.57N 84.19W
03/15/2012  E0.75 INCH       AUGLAIZE           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ASL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
549 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     HAIL             1 S FALMOUTH            38.66N 84.33W
03/15/2012  E1.00 INCH       PENDLETON          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ASL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
602 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     HAIL             ANNA                    40.40N 84.17W
03/15/2012  E1.00 INCH       SHELBY             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MYRONP