Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
516 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS TIME AS THESE FEATURES COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE FA OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME SUB SEVERE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE
STORMS ACROSS THE FA.  THERE WILL THEN BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION HOWEVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOCATED OVER WESTERN INDIANA AND EXPECT THIS AND ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY.
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING WHERE CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR TODAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEBULOUS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME. WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXPECTED EACH
DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FOR GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE AT
LEAST IN THE 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA NEARING THE 80 DEGREE MARK. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL PASS BY THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND THUS PROBABILITY OF ANY OF THIS
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS HAVE OPTED TO USE VCSH IN INITIAL
ISSUANCE.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUT WEAK FORCING MEANS THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN COVERAGE/TIMING/LOCATION. THUS HAVE KEPT THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS DRY FOR NOW. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
615 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-161015-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
615 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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