Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THIS
WEEKEND MAINTAINING THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH AN ENCROACHING FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND STEADILY
LESS HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM...CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WE ARE NOW UNDER A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE
CWFA. DISCRETE CELLS HAVE BEEN FORMING MOSTLY OVER THE UPSTATE AND
THE NC FOOTHILLS THUS FAR. STILL EXPECTING MORE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MTS AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON BUT AS OF 215PM...IT HAS BEEN QUITE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CURRENT LAPSE SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND DCAPE OVER THE CWFA WITH VERY MINIMAL
SHEAR. SO...I DONT EXPECT MUCH SUBSTANTIAL ORGANIZATION FROM ANY
CELLS THAT DEVELOP...HOWEVER A LINE OF TS COULD MAINTAIN ITSELF IS
TRIGGERED BY STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FREEZING LVLS ARE AROUND
15KFT MSL SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TALL CORES TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AT
THE SFC...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LVLS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS IS GOOD. STILL EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
NEAR 100 OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE MTS.
EXPECT THINGS TO QUITE DOWN LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS WE COOL. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MT
VALLEYS FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW MORNING IF DEWPTS STAY UP.

TOMORROW...SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTING
FARTHER EAST OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER HOT SUMMERTIME
DAY ON TAP. EXPECTING LESS UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL...SO I
BROUGHT POPS DOWN TO JUST SOLID CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...H5 HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION SAT AS A
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE W...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES PUSHING DOWN
OVER THE AREA FROM THE N. WITH DEW POINTS AND PW STAYING RELATIVELY
HIGH EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
THE MTNS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BEST. HIGHS REMAIN
ABOVE AVG AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102-104 WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
AFTN AND A HEAT ADVSRY MAY BE NEEDED IF AREA WARMS A DEG OR SO
HIGHER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGE WEAKENING
SUN AS A TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NE US. SINCE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE W CWA WE KEPT SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-85...WITH ISOLATED
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE AVG SO EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE
100 DEG E OF THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING
THE ONSET OF EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH AND THE ENCROACHMENT OF
ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH
COMMENCEMENT OF PATTERN CHANGE...WILL NUDGE DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM
CHANCES UPWARD AND MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD FOR MONDAY. WITH BNDRY PROGGED
TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY THRU TUESDAY...ROBUST...SOLID TSTM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE AND THE TREND FOR LESS WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
AS WELL WITH MAX TEMPS PROGGED AROUND IF NOT A TAD BELOW CLIMO. BY
THE END OF PERIOD...MEAN L/WV TROFINESS FILLS JUST NOMINALLY...
AND WAVY LLVL BNDRY IS PROGGED TO LINGER SOMEWHERE ACRS THE SE
CONUS. BASED ON THIS SETUP...WOULD EXPECT DAILY TSTM CHANCES TO
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO WHILE MAX TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS RAMPING UP OVER THE AREA WITH A PRETTY GOOD
CLUSTER OF SEVERE TS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS MECKLENBURG COUNTY. AT
THEIR CURRENT SPEED THEY WILL LIKELY REACH KCLT AROUND 1530LT WITH
STRONG LOW LVL WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND REDUCED
VISBY. I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP VALID FROM 20 TO 24Z WITH MVFR
VISBY AND BKN CB. ONCE THE CONVECTION ENDS...I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...A SIMILAR STORY FOR THE OTHER SITES EXCEPT THAT I HAVE
VCTS FOR THE FM GROUP THRU THE LATE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SCT
CONVECTION. ITS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY HOW LONG THE CONVECTION
WILL LAST...BUT I THINK IT SHOULD DIE OFF BY 3Z OR SO.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE MT VALLEYS INCLUDING KAVL FROM ABOUT 9Z TO
12Z.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDED...

AVL
JULY 5TH  96 IN 1948
JULY 6TH  93 IN 1993
JULY 7TH  95 IN 1993

GSP
JULY 5TH   98 IN 1993
JULY 6TH  100 IN 1993
JULY 7TH  100 IN 1993

CLT
JULY 5TH  100 IN 1954
JULY 6TH   99 IN 1930
JULY 7TH  100 IN 1993

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JPT
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
208 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-061815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
208 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 105 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 85 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED IF THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1248 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ063-064-SCZ001-002-051730-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
1248 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OCONEE...NORTHWESTERN
PICKENS...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES
THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

AT 1246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF LAKE JOCASSEE...OR 17 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BREVARD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE JOCASSEE...
  SALEM...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE INDOORS IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3493 8315 3494 8312 3495 8312 3497 8312
      3499 8310 3500 8311 3512 8304 3508 8282
      3480 8290 3477 8296 3483 8321

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
132 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ504-506-508-051815-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
132 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM
EDT...

AT 130 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF GLEN ALPINE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF
MORGANTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DYSARTSVILLE...

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3572 8172 3540 8172 3546 8203 3574 8198
      3577 8193 3578 8192

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ053-505-051945-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
306 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN BUNCOMBE AND
SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTREAT...OR 15 MILES WEST
OF MARION...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THE STORM WAS OVER INTERSTATE 40.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OLD FORT...
  MONTREAT AND BLACK MOUNTAIN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3555 8216 3552 8232 3565 8239 3571 8218

MCAVOY