Severe Thunderstorm Warning 327, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

496 
WWUS52 KGSP 051819
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
219 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

SCC001-047-051829-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0327.000000T0000Z-120705T1845Z/
ABBEVILLE SC-GREENWOOD SC-
219 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD AND
EASTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER.
STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3414 8253 3441 8241 3440 8223 3438 8221
      3413 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 004DEG 7KT 3432 8233

$$
LG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
139 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THIS
WEEKEND MAINTAINING THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH AN ENCROACHING FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND STEADILY
LESS HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 139 PM...SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT ISSUANCE OF SEVERE
TSTM WATCH 470.

AS OF 1015 AM...CONDITIONS ARE HEATING UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH
THE GSP AIRPORT ALREADY ABOVE 90 DEGREES AS OF 1000LT. SCATTERED
CIRRUS IS MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MOST OF THE CWFA AS THE
MCS JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES HAS FIZZLED WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA. I EXPECT WE WILL PROBABLY ONLY
SEE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS ONCE IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. NONETHELESS...THE LATEST 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM GSO AND
FFC ARE SHOWING SOME HEALTHY INSTABILITY AND DCAPE WITH VERY MINIMAL
SHEAR. IF CONVECTION GETS GOING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THERE IS
A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME TALL PULSE TS THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOWS. FREEZING LVLS ARE AROUND 15KFT MSL SO IT
WILL TAKE SOME TALL CORES TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AT THE SFC...BUT
WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LVLS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG DOWNBURSTS IS GOOD. I KEPT THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT IF SUFFICIENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARE PRODUCED...WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOP. STILL EXPECT HIGH TEMPS NEAR 100 OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE MTS.

TOMORROW...SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTING
FARTHER EAST OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER HOT SUMMERTIME
DAY ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND
SAT AS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST. EXPECT GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL COVERAGE ALL BUT THE ERN CWFA WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE LESS. SAT NOT QUITE A CARBON COPY AS SCT
COVERAGE SHUD BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...AGAIN DUE TO BETTER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THERE. SREF SHOWS MODERATE MEDIAN MIXED LAYER
CAPE WITH 1000 TO 1250 DCAPE EACH DAY. LITTLE TO NO SHEAR SHOWN
EITHER DAY. THEREFORE...EVEN WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS...ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS AN ELEVATED ICY CORE COULD BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
EACH DAY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WITH LOWER 90S MTN VALLEYS. CANNOT RULE
OUT THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY SOUTH OF I-85 AS HEAT INDEX
APPROACHES 105 DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TEMP/DEW POINT READINGS. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FINAL READINGS...WILL NOT ISSUE
ATTM.

THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE BUCKLING SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS
IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH MAYBE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. EITHER WAY...BEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CWFA WITH LESS OVER THE EAST.
WILL GO WITH SCT CONVECTION MAINLY NORTH OF I-85 WITH ISOLATED
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SHUD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS 2
DAYS. THIS KEEPS AREA FROM REACHING HEAT ADV LEVELS...BUT HEAT INDEX
VALUES STILL TOP 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING
THE ONSET OF EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH AND THE ENCROACHMENT OF
ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH
COMMENCEMENT OF PATTERN CHANGE...WILL NUDGE DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM
CHANCES UPWARD AND MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD FOR MONDAY. WITH BNDRY PROGGED
TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY THRU TUESDAY...ROBUST...SOLID TSTM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE AND THE TREND FOR LESS WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
AS WELL WITH MAX TEMPS PROGGED AROUND IF NOT A TAD BELOW CLIMO. BY
THE END OF PERIOD...MEAN L/WV TROFINESS FILLS JUST NOMINALLY...
AND WAVY LLVL BNDRY IS PROGGED TO LINGER SOMEWHERE ACRS THE SE
CONUS. BASED ON THIS SETUP...WOULD EXPECT DAILY TSTM CHANCES TO
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO WHILE MAX TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA WITH
LIGHT N WINDS. SCATTERED AFTN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS. PROB30
GROUPS AT ALL SITES STILL LOOKS GOOD. WITH CONVECTION STARTING
EARLIER IN THE MTNS...HAVE VCTS AT KAVL STARTING AT 17Z. CONVECTION
SHUD WANE THIS EVENING...LEAVING DEBRIS CIRRUS. NOT CONFIDENT ENUF
ON ANY FOG POTENTIAL TO ADD ANYTHING FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDED...

AVL
JULY 5TH  96 IN 1948
JULY 6TH  93 IN 1993
JULY 7TH  95 IN 1993

GSP
JULY 5TH   98 IN 1993
JULY 6TH  100 IN 1993
JULY 7TH  100 IN 1993

CLT
JULY 5TH  100 IN 1954
JULY 6TH   99 IN 1930
JULY 7TH  100 IN 1993

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JPT/RB
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH/SBK
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
409 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-060815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
409 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 105 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 85 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY
WOULD BE NEEDED IF THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1248 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ063-064-SCZ001-002-051730-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
1248 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OCONEE...NORTHWESTERN
PICKENS...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES
THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

AT 1246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF LAKE JOCASSEE...OR 17 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BREVARD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE JOCASSEE...
  SALEM...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE INDOORS IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3493 8315 3494 8312 3495 8312 3497 8312
      3499 8310 3500 8311 3512 8304 3508 8282
      3480 8290 3477 8296 3483 8321

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
132 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ504-506-508-051815-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
132 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM
EDT...

AT 130 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF GLEN ALPINE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF
MORGANTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DYSARTSVILLE...

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3572 8172 3540 8172 3546 8203 3574 8198
      3577 8193 3578 8192

LG