Severe Thunderstorm Warning 325, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

771 
WWUS52 KGSP 051810
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC003-059-097-051819-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0325.000000T0000Z-120705T1830Z/
ALEXANDER NC-DAVIE NC-IREDELL NC-
210 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN IREDELL...DAVIE AND
ALEXANDER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LEVELS.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER.
STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO 
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS 
IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 3588 8041 3585 8038 3581 8047 3582 8060
      3586 8067 3585 8071 3581 8073 3580 8113
      3583 8115 3580 8133 3582 8134 3592 8135
      3601 8131 3603 8108 3607 8098 3605 8049
      3607 8046 3593 8036 3589 8036
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 353DEG 21KT 3583 8082

$$
LG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VARYING COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM...CONDITIONS ARE HEATING UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH
THE GSP AIRPORT ALREADY ABOVE 90 DEGREES AS OF 1000LT. SCATTERED
CIRRUS IS MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MOST OF THE CWFA AS THE
MCS JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES HAS FIZZLED WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA. I EXPECT WE WILL PROBABLY ONLY
SEE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS ONCE IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. NONETHELESS...THE LATEST 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM GSO AND
FFC ARE SHOWING SOME HEALTHY INSTABILITY AND DCAPE WITH VERY MINIMAL
SHEAR. IF CONVECTION GETS GOING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THERE IS
A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME TALL PULSE TS THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOWS. FREEZING LVLS ARE AROUND 15KFT MSL SO IT
WILL TAKE SOME TALL CORES TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AT THE SFC...BUT
WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LVLS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG DOWNBURSTS IS GOOD. I KEPT THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT IF SUFFICIENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARE PRODUCED...WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOP. STILL EXPECT HIGH TEMPS NEAR 100 OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE MTS.

TOMORROW...SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTING
FARTHER EAST OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER HOT SUMMERTIME
DAY ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND
SAT AS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST. EXPECT GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL COVERAGE ALL BUT THE ERN CWFA WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE LESS. SAT NOT QUITE A CARBON COPY AS SCT
COVERAGE SHUD BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...AGAIN DUE TO BETTER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THERE. SREF SHOWS MODERATE MEDIAN MIXED LAYER
CAPE WITH 1000 TO 1250 DCAPE EACH DAY. LITTLE TO NO SHEAR SHOWN
EITHER DAY. THEREFORE...EVEN WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS...ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS AN ELEVATED ICY CORE COULD BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
EACH DAY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WITH LOWER 90S MTN VALLEYS. CANNOT RULE
OUT THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY SOUTH OF I-85 AS HEAT INDEX
APPROACHES 105 DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TEMP/DEW POINT READINGS. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FINAL READINGS...WILL NOT ISSUE
ATTM.

THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE BUCKLING SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS
IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH MAYBE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. EITHER WAY...BEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CWFA WITH LESS OVER THE EAST.
WILL GO WITH SCT CONVECTION MAINLY NORTH OF I-85 WITH ISOLATED
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SHUD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS 2
DAYS. THIS KEEPS AREA FROM REACHING HEAT ADV LEVELS...BUT HEAT INDEX
VALUES STILL TOP 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE. THE MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
EVOLUTION. IN FACT...THE LATEST ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS. STILL ANTICIPATE THE UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS AN EAST COAST
TROF FORMS IN RESPONSE TO -NAO BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW
A SFC HIGH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO BE REINFORCED AND PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
NOW ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BTW THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE
FRONTAL MOVEMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN
INCREASING POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE WHEN THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN ZONES OR NRN MIDLANDS. STILL
KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...BUT AT THE HIGH END MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE LLVL LIFT AND DEEPER
SHEAR DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS...THUS CONTINUED BOUTS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL
FALL A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY AS THE BOUNDARY HELPS INDUCES A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA WITH
LIGHT N WINDS. SCATTERED AFTN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS. PROB30
GROUPS AT ALL SITES STILL LOOKS GOOD. WITH CONVECTION STARTING
EARLIER IN THE MTNS...HAVE VCTS AT KAVL STARTING AT 17Z. CONVECTION
SHUD WANE THIS EVENING...LEAVING DEBRIS CIRRUS. NOT CONFIDENT ENUF
ON ANY FOG POTENTIAL TO ADD ANYTHING FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDED...

AVL
JULY 5TH  96 IN 1948
JULY 6TH  93 IN 1993
JULY 7TH  95 IN 1993

GSP
JULY 5TH   98 IN 1993
JULY 6TH  100 IN 1993
JULY 7TH  100 IN 1993

CLT
JULY 5TH  100 IN 1954
JULY 6TH   99 IN 1930
JULY 7TH  100 IN 1993

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH/SBK
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
409 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-060815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
409 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 105 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 85 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY
WOULD BE NEEDED IF THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1248 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ063-064-SCZ001-002-051730-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
1248 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OCONEE...NORTHWESTERN
PICKENS...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES
THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

AT 1246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF LAKE JOCASSEE...OR 17 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BREVARD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE JOCASSEE...
  SALEM...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE INDOORS IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3493 8315 3494 8312 3495 8312 3497 8312
      3499 8310 3500 8311 3512 8304 3508 8282
      3480 8290 3477 8296 3483 8321

JPT