Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
359 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.AVIATION...
UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED THE TAF SITES...SO HAVE REMOVED
THE VCTS AND CB FROM THE METROPLEX TAFS. WE WILL MONITOR THE
STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ADD TSRA BACK INTO THE FORECAST IF
NECESSARY.

58

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

CONCERNS...LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF A K0F2 TO KBKD
LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND NOT AFFECT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES. CUMULUS FIELDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED TO THE
NORTHEAST...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX AS OF
MIDDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCES IN
THE METROPLEX ARE ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT...BUT HAVE PLACED VCTS
AND CB IN THE TAF FOR THE 21-00Z PERIOD AS THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS AGAIN TODAY WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

SIMILAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TOMORROW AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS IN DIFFLUENT NORTH FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COMPLEX
OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MEAN STORM MOTION WITH THIS COMPLEX
COULD TRACK THE SYSTEM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DOWN THE
PLAINS IT WILL BRING A FRONT WITH IT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS TIME BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS
WANT TO RETREAT THE FRONT A LITTLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN PUSH
IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...ENDING RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHO WILL STILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION BUT WILL STILL BE CENTERED WEST OF NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA ON
SATURDAY BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE RED
RIVER. HOWEVER...IF THIS SCENARIO DOES DEVELOP...REMNANTS FROM
THIS COMPLEX COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MCS COULD
POSSIBLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION AND A DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEN WE WILL
SEE SOME RELIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME SPOTS AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER...THE TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERS OVER THE REGION.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80 104  79 100  78 /  30  20  20  30  20
WACO, TX              77 103  77 100  78 /  20  20  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             75  99  74  97  75 /  30  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            79 102  78  99  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          79 101  77  99  76 /  30  20  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            84 104  80 100  79 /  30  20  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           80 101  78  98  77 /  30  20  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         77 102  77  98  77 /  20  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            75 101  75  99  76 /  20  20  20  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78 103  75 101  76 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

58/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
348 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
348 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG AND
NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO CANTON LINE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL LARGER THAN
1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LOW CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO
ATHENS LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY REQUESTED THROUGH 9 PM...MAINLY NORTH OF A
COMANCHE TO CANTON LINE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
431 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ095-072200-
LAMAR TX-
431 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTY

AT 431 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES EAST OF PARIS...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BLOSSOM AND DEPORT.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3371 9531 3371 9530 3344 9530 3343 9530
      3339 9530 3338 9531 3342 9543 3343 9544
      3376 9545 3381 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 344DEG 8KT 3364 9529

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
438 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ130-072215-
ERATH TX-
438 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  ERATH COUNTY

AT 438 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES EAST OF STEPHENVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DUBLIN...STEPHENVILLE AND
HUCKABAY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3237 9833 3228 9796 3209 9787 3192 9820
      3198 9826 3194 9832 3226 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 015DEG 14KT 3220 9818

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
454 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ093-072230-
GRAYSON TX-
454 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN GRAYSON COUNTY

AT 454 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF DENISON...MOVING SOUTH AT
15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DENISON...POTTSBORO...WILLIS
AND EISENHOWER STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3389 9658 3385 9662 3383 9657 3382 9652
      3377 9649 3373 9652 3376 9688 3388 9683
      3388 9679 3383 9676 3385 9670 3392 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 015DEG 11KT 3390 9667

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
459 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ116-072230-
PALO PINTO TX-
459 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 459 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRAHAM...MOVING SOUTH AT 15
MPH.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3295 9849 3295 9843 3299 9843 3299 9826
      3275 9829 3278 9856
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 015DEG 11KT 3288 9839

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
501 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND GST     STEPHENVILLE            32.23N  98.20W
08/07/2012  M62 MPH          ERATH              TX   AWOS

            62-MPH WIND GUST AT CLARK FIELD (KSEP)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
509 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ121-072245-
KAUFMAN TX-
509 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN KAUFMAN COUNTY

AT 509 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUFMAN...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COTTONWOOD AND GRAYS
PRAIRIE.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3236 9644 3241 9644 3244 9648 3248 9651
      3249 9651 3250 9650 3255 9636 3236 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 044DEG 10KT 3242 9642