Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF A K0F2 TO KBKD
LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND NOT AFFECT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES. CUMULUS FIELDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED TO THE
NORTHEAST...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX AS OF
MIDDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCES IN
THE METROPLEX ARE ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT...BUT HAVE PLACED VCTS
AND CB IN THE TAF FOR THE 21-00Z PERIOD AS THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES ALONG A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO ABILENE. LIGHTNING HAS
RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED WITH ONE STORM IN YOUNG COUNTY BUT
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE REACHING THE
GROUND. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING
HOURS.

THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS ON TRACK BUT DID MAKE A FEW MINOR
CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO...INCREASED DEWPOINTS SOME
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING 105 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. HOWEVER...THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD BE AFFECTED BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
AND CLOUD COVER.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012/
WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT COUPLED WITH A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH STORMS
MOST LIKELY DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR BELOW THE HIGH BASED STORMS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE DRY AIR SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MIXING DOWN OF DRIER
AIR SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105.
THEREFORE...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A NEW HEAT ADVISORY WITH THIS
PACKAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES ON THE WEEKEND DUE
TO VERY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 104  80 102  80 100 /  20  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX             104  76 101  77 100 /  20  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX            100  76  98  74  97 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX           104  78 102  77 100 /  20  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX         103  77 102  77  99 /  20  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX           105  82 102  80 101 /  20  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX          102  76 100  76  98 /  20  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX        101  77 100  77 100 /  20  10  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX           101  74 100  74  99 /  20  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX    103  74 101  73 100 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

58/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1038 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1038 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND 1 INCH HAIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS
EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
302 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ094-072030-
FANNIN TX-
302 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  FANNIN COUNTY

AT 303 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF BONHAM...MOVING SOUTH AT 15
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BAILEY...BONHAM...DODD
CITY...HONEY GROVE AND BONHAM STATE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3389 9592 3384 9584 3341 9586 3336 9621
      3375 9623 3377 9617 3380 9617 3381 9618
      3384 9615 3385 9601 3388 9600 3387 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 353DEG 11KT 3367 9605

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ104-072045-
COLLIN TX-
319 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL COLLIN COUNTY

AT 319 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCKINNEY...MOVING SOUTH AT
20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ANNA...FAIRVIEW...LOWRY
CROSSING...LUCAS...MCKINNEY AND PRINCETON.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3340 9647 3339 9646 3309 9638 3306 9665
      3340 9668 3340 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 352DEG 19KT 3334 9656

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ116-072100-
PALO PINTO TX-
326 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 326 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTH OF MINERAL WELLS...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GORDON.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3268 9831 3276 9807 3275 9806 3251 9807
      3251 9841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 034DEG 13KT 3260 9815

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ092-093-072100-
GRAYSON TX-COOKE TX-
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN COOKE COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTY

AT 325 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTH OF WHITESBORO...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CALLISBURG...WHITESBORO AND
WILLIS.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3393 9689 3389 9689 3386 9686 3388 9684
      3387 9681 3356 9682 3361 9714 3385 9705
      3385 9703 3389 9699 3395 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 010DEG 8KT 3385 9693

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ102-072100-
WISE TX-
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 327 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE AURORA...BOYD AND
COTTONDALE.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3321 9747 3299 9740 3299 9773 3300 9775
      3323 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 005DEG 7KT 3313 9759

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ102-103-072100-
DENTON TX-WISE TX-
337 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 337 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES EAST OF DECATUR...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3311 9723 3312 9749 3342 9751 3342 9726
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 004DEG 7KT 3325 9737