Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
359 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.AVIATION...
UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED THE TAF SITES...SO HAVE REMOVED
THE VCTS AND CB FROM THE METROPLEX TAFS. WE WILL MONITOR THE
STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ADD TSRA BACK INTO THE FORECAST IF
NECESSARY.

58

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

CONCERNS...LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF A K0F2 TO KBKD
LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND NOT AFFECT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES. CUMULUS FIELDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED TO THE
NORTHEAST...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX AS OF
MIDDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCES IN
THE METROPLEX ARE ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT...BUT HAVE PLACED VCTS
AND CB IN THE TAF FOR THE 21-00Z PERIOD AS THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS AGAIN TODAY WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

SIMILAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TOMORROW AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS IN DIFFLUENT NORTH FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COMPLEX
OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MEAN STORM MOTION WITH THIS COMPLEX
COULD TRACK THE SYSTEM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DOWN THE
PLAINS IT WILL BRING A FRONT WITH IT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS TIME BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS
WANT TO RETREAT THE FRONT A LITTLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN PUSH
IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...ENDING RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHO WILL STILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION BUT WILL STILL BE CENTERED WEST OF NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA ON
SATURDAY BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE RED
RIVER. HOWEVER...IF THIS SCENARIO DOES DEVELOP...REMNANTS FROM
THIS COMPLEX COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MCS COULD
POSSIBLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION AND A DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEN WE WILL
SEE SOME RELIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME SPOTS AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER...THE TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERS OVER THE REGION.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80 104  79 100  78 /  30  20  20  30  20
WACO, TX              77 103  77 100  78 /  20  20  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             75  99  74  97  75 /  30  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            79 102  78  99  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          79 101  77  99  76 /  30  20  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            84 104  80 100  79 /  30  20  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           80 101  78  98  77 /  30  20  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         77 102  77  98  77 /  20  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            75 101  75  99  76 /  20  20  20  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78 103  75 101  76 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

58/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
348 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
348 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG AND
NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO CANTON LINE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL LARGER THAN
1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LOW CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO
ATHENS LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY REQUESTED THROUGH 9 PM...MAINLY NORTH OF A
COMANCHE TO CANTON LINE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ104-072115-
COLLIN TX-
351 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN COLLIN COUNTY

AT 351 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCKINNEY...MOVING SOUTH AT
5 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ANNA...FARMERSVILLE AND
PRINCETON.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3340 9656 3340 9639 3334 9638 3335 9633
      3335 9629 3314 9629 3318 9657 3341 9658
      3341 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 000DEG 5KT 3333 9644

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ104-072115-
COLLIN TX-
352 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN COLLIN COUNTY

AT 352 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCKINNEY...MOVING SOUTH AT
5 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ANNA...FARMERSVILLE AND
PRINCETON.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3340 9656 3340 9639 3334 9638 3335 9633
      3335 9629 3314 9629 3318 9657 3341 9658
      3341 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 000DEG 5KT 3332 9644

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ116-117-130-131-072145-
ERATH TX-HOOD TX-PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
352 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN ERATH COUNTY
  WESTERN HOOD COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY
  SOUTHWESTERN PARKER COUNTY

AT 352 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES WEST OF GRANBURY...MOVING SOUTH AT 15
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LIPAN...HUCKABAY AND MORGAN
MILL.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3272 9823 3273 9789 3230 9781 3221 9801
      3226 9837
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 015DEG 12KT 3251 9807

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
402 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ095-072130-
LAMAR TX-
402 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN LAMAR COUNTY

AT 403 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES EAST OF PARIS...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BLOSSOM AND DEPORT.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3338 9530 3344 9548 3346 9549 3345 9550
      3346 9553 3379 9546 3380 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 003DEG 18KT 3366 9532

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
404 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHITESBORO              33.65N  96.92W
08/07/2012                   GRAYSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OUTBUILDING DESTROYED, TWO SALT WATER CONTAINMENT TANKS
            DAMAGED OR DESTROYED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
421 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ132-072145-
SOMERVELL TX-
421 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOMERVELL COUNTY

AT 421 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 NORTHEAST FO GLEN ROSE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GLEN ROSE AND DINOSAUR
VALLEY STATE PARK.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3232 9779 3232 9762 3220 9761 3220 9762
      3221 9763 3210 9783 3211 9784 3228 9786
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 007DEG 5KT 3226 9771