Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS AGAIN TODAY WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

SIMILAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TOMORROW AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS IN DIFFLUENT NORTH FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COMPLEX
OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MEAN STORM MOTION WITH THIS COMPLEX
COULD TRACK THE SYSTEM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DOWN THE
PLAINS IT WILL BRING A FRONT WITH IT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS TIME BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS
WANT TO RETREAT THE FRONT A LITTLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN PUSH
IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...ENDING RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHO WILL STILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION BUT WILL STILL BE CENTERED WEST OF NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA ON
SATURDAY BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE RED
RIVER. HOWEVER...IF THIS SCENARIO DOES DEVELOP...REMNANTS FROM
THIS COMPLEX COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MCS COULD
POSSIBLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION AND A DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEN WE WILL
SEE SOME RELIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME SPOTS AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER...THE TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERS OVER THE REGION.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80 104  79 100  78 /  30  20  20  30  20
WACO, TX              77 103  77 100  78 /  20  20  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             75  99  74  97  75 /  30  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            79 102  78  99  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          79 101  77  99  76 /  30  20  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            84 104  80 100  79 /  30  20  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           80 101  78  98  77 /  30  20  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         77 102  77  98  77 /  20  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            75 101  75  99  76 /  20  20  20  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78 103  75 101  76 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

58/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
348 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
348 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG AND
NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO CANTON LINE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL LARGER THAN
1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LOW CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO
ATHENS LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY REQUESTED THROUGH 9 PM...MAINLY NORTH OF A
COMANCHE TO CANTON LINE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ092-093-072100-
GRAYSON TX-COOKE TX-
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN COOKE COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTY

AT 325 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTH OF WHITESBORO...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CALLISBURG...WHITESBORO AND
WILLIS.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3393 9689 3389 9689 3386 9686 3388 9684
      3387 9681 3356 9682 3361 9714 3385 9705
      3385 9703 3389 9699 3395 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 010DEG 8KT 3385 9693

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ102-072100-
WISE TX-
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 327 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE AURORA...BOYD AND
COTTONDALE.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3321 9747 3299 9740 3299 9773 3300 9775
      3323 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 005DEG 7KT 3313 9759

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ102-103-072100-
DENTON TX-WISE TX-
337 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 337 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES EAST OF DECATUR...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3311 9723 3312 9749 3342 9751 3342 9726
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 004DEG 7KT 3325 9737

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ104-072115-
COLLIN TX-
351 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN COLLIN COUNTY

AT 351 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCKINNEY...MOVING SOUTH AT
5 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ANNA...FARMERSVILLE AND
PRINCETON.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3340 9656 3340 9639 3334 9638 3335 9633
      3335 9629 3314 9629 3318 9657 3341 9658
      3341 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 000DEG 5KT 3333 9644

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ104-072115-
COLLIN TX-
352 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN COLLIN COUNTY

AT 352 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCKINNEY...MOVING SOUTH AT
5 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ANNA...FARMERSVILLE AND
PRINCETON.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3340 9656 3340 9639 3334 9638 3335 9633
      3335 9629 3314 9629 3318 9657 3341 9658
      3341 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 000DEG 5KT 3332 9644

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ116-117-130-131-072145-
ERATH TX-HOOD TX-PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
352 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN ERATH COUNTY
  WESTERN HOOD COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY
  SOUTHWESTERN PARKER COUNTY

AT 352 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES WEST OF GRANBURY...MOVING SOUTH AT 15
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LIPAN...HUCKABAY AND MORGAN
MILL.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3272 9823 3273 9789 3230 9781 3221 9801
      3226 9837
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 015DEG 12KT 3251 9807

CAVANAUGH