Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
607 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...IFR AND MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AND THUNDER AFFECTING
THE AIRPORTS TODAY.

MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT
SOME CLEARING IS OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CEILINGS FILLING BACK IN TO THE WEST...THUS
WILL BEGIN THE TAFS WITH IFR AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 1000 FEET. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AROUND NORTH
TEXAS AND PERIODS OF BRIEF LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT THE AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TODAY. AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. USING THE LATEST HI-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL MENTION THUNDER IN THE TAFS
BETWEEN 16-22Z WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 18-22Z. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AIRPORTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE DFW METROPLEX TAF LOCATIONS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT OPERATIONS THAN KACT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CLEARS THE AIRPORTS TO THE
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND THEN FINALLY TO THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS CUTOFF AND IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY OVER
NEW MEXICO. ONE VORT LOBE ROTATED THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS MONDAY
EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING INTO COLORADO. FIRST SHORTWAVE
TRACKED A BIT TOO FAR NORTHWEST...AND CONVECTION THAT INITIATED
ON THE DRY LINE STRUGGLED. NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY WAS ANALYZED AT
00Z ALONG I-40 IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA...AND
THIS TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH FAR WEST TEXAS AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE FORCING FOR LIFT FROM THIS UPPER ENERGY SHOULD
BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OVERNIGHT AIRCRAFT DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CAP REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES ACCORDING TO LATEST LOCAL OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. MEANWHILE A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BOUNDARY ../TECHNICALLY
CLASSIFIED AS A WEAK FRONT BECAUSE PASSAGE IS MARKED BY PRESSURE
RISES/.. IS ALONG A LINE FROM OLNEY TO EASTLAND AND IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST. CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SYNOPTIC ASSISTANCE FOR
LIFT AT THIS TIME THE CONVECTION IS REMAINING WEAK AND NON-SEVERE.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THIS
MORNING...AIDED IN PART BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ANEMIC UNTIL THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID-LATE MORNING AND HELPS
TO PRIME THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
CAPPING SHOULD BECOME NON-EXISTENT TODAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
COMANCHE TO HILLSBORO TO ATHENS LINE...WITH A WEAK CAP REMAINING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THUS EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
NORTH OF THIS LINE AND HAVE POPS GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT IN THIS
AREA...WITH POPS OF 50 PERCENT FARTHER SOUTH. SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES BY MIDDAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE STORMS WILL NOT WAIT FOR PEAK HEATING TO DEVELOP TODAY AND
LAPSE RATES LOWER TO 7-8 DEG/KM...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HIGH AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER CAPES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HAIL
AND WIND WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
NOTABLY WEAKER...BUT DOES CONTAIN SOME DECENT DIRECTIONAL TURNING
AND THUS A LOW TORNADO THREAT CAN/T BE DISCOUNTED. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD
BE EAST OF I-35 BY 7PM...AND EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE NORTHERN ZONES MAY CONTEND WITH SOME WRAP AROUND LOW
CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...WITH A BIT OF A REINFORCING FRONT THURSDAY WHEN
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY. HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR 80 WEDNESDAY AND
THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL
BENEFIT FROM DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DROP OFF INTO THE 50S
BOTH NIGHTS. WEAK RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON FRIDAY AND MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES BY SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS A
WEAK FRONT AND STALLS IT ACROSS THE NW ZONES ON SATURDAY. GFS/GEM
MODELS ARE INEXPLICABLY WET WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
DESPITE A TOTAL LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN. ECMWF IS
FAVORED...AS IT SHOWS SOME THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT KEEPS QPF
LOW. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE STALLED FRONT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  56  80  57  80 /  80  20   5   5   0
WACO, TX              80  54  81  55  82 /  50  10   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             80  58  78  54  75 /  70  70  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            80  51  79  53  79 /  80  20   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          80  54  78  52  78 /  80  40   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80  57  80  58  80 /  80  30   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           80  58  80  54  79 /  80  50   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         81  59  81  56  80 /  70  50   5   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            81  55  82  55  83 /  50  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  49  79  52  80 /  60  10   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

82/92

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
405 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
405 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS...HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
700 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ100-115-031230-
STEPHENS TX-YOUNG TX-
700 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN STEPHENS COUNTY
  SOUTHERN YOUNG COUNTY

AT 700 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF BRECKENRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BRECKENRIDGE...GRAHAM AND
CRYSTAL FALLS.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3297 9905 3297 9896 3307 9896 3329 9877
      3311 9848 3263 9889 3294 9908
TIME...MOT...LOC 1200Z 211DEG 42KT 3284 9894

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
728 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ100-101-031300-
JACK TX-YOUNG TX-
728 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN JACK COUNTY
  YOUNG COUNTY

AT 728 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BRYSON AND GRAHAM.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3340 9843 3346 9843 3346 9839 3318 9823
      3301 9838 3301 9843 3295 9843 3295 9874
      3340 9887
TIME...MOT...LOC 1228Z 224DEG 41KT 3306 9868

82/JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
804 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 AM     HAIL             SOUTH BEND              33.00N  98.67W
04/03/2012  E1.75 INCH       YOUNG              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTED BY GRAHAM FIRE AND RESCUE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
807 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 AM     HAIL             GRAHAM                  33.10N  98.60W
04/03/2012  M1.75 INCH       YOUNG              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN GRAHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
835 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ091-031400-
MONTAGUE TX-
835 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  MONTAGUE COUNTY

AT 835 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOWIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BOWIE...NOCONA...ST. JO...
FORESTBURG AND STONEBURG.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3399 9764 3396 9759 3391 9759 3392 9749
      3344 9749 3344 9798 3378 9799 3389 9798
      3389 9794 3386 9785 3392 9779 3395 9772
      3400 9768
TIME...MOT...LOC 1335Z 228DEG 27KT 3366 9793

CAVANAUGH