Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
113 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO CANCEL WESTERN ROW OF COUNTIES FROM THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. WILL MAKE VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS AS WELL.
84

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA WITH LARGE HAIL AND FRQ CG
STRIKES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR CIGS RETURNING
LATE TONIGHT AND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY WEAK FROPA AROUND
SUNRISE.

PER RADAR AND COORD WITH CWSU...WILL GO WITH PREVAIL VCTS/CB WITH
NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ELLIS/JOHNSON COUNTIES...WITH MORE STORMS
FROM STEPHENVILLE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO BRIDGEPORT...ALL MOVING
NNE AT 30 KTS OR SO. WILL CARRY TEMPO GROUP FOR ALL DFW METRO AIRPORTS
THROUGH 21-22Z...WITH WRN SITES AT ALLIANCE/MEACHAM SEEING AN
ENDING AN HOUR SOONER THAT ERN METRO TERMINALS.

WILL CARRY SIMILAR TRENDS AT WACO WITH TEMPO ONLY 2 HRS BETWEEN
19-21Z...AS CONVECTION FIELD WILL NOT BE AS SOLID AND MORE
SCATTERED.

DRYLINE WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WITH FRONT AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO
ADVERTISE AT THE MOMENT. DO EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO RETURN BEFORE
DAYBREAK ALL TAF SITES AS INITIAL FRONTAL PUSH WILL BE WEAK.
STRONG DOWNGLIDE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE WITH WNW FLOW AROUND
15 KTS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AND AFTER.

05/

&&

.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED TO PROCESS TORNADO WATCH. HAVE TWEAKED POP GRIDS
BASED ON LINE MOVEMENT BUT REST OF PACKAGE HAS ONLY MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS CUTOFF AND IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY OVER
NEW MEXICO. ONE VORT LOBE ROTATED THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS MONDAY
EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING INTO COLORADO. FIRST SHORTWAVE
TRACKED A BIT TOO FAR NORTHWEST...AND CONVECTION THAT INITIATED
ON THE DRY LINE STRUGGLED. NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY WAS ANALYZED AT
00Z ALONG I-40 IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA...AND
THIS TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH FAR WEST TEXAS AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE FORCING FOR LIFT FROM THIS UPPER ENERGY SHOULD
BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OVERNIGHT AIRCRAFT DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CAP REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES ACCORDING TO LATEST LOCAL OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. MEANWHILE A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BOUNDARY ../TECHNICALLY
CLASSIFIED AS A WEAK FRONT BECAUSE PASSAGE IS MARKED BY PRESSURE
RISES/.. IS ALONG A LINE FROM OLNEY TO EASTLAND AND IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST. CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SYNOPTIC ASSISTANCE FOR
LIFT AT THIS TIME THE CONVECTION IS REMAINING WEAK AND NON-SEVERE.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THIS
MORNING...AIDED IN PART BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ANEMIC UNTIL THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID-LATE MORNING AND HELPS
TO PRIME THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
CAPPING SHOULD BECOME NON-EXISTENT TODAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
COMANCHE TO HILLSBORO TO ATHENS LINE...WITH A WEAK CAP REMAINING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THUS EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
NORTH OF THIS LINE AND HAVE POPS GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT IN THIS
AREA...WITH POPS OF 50 PERCENT FARTHER SOUTH. SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES BY MIDDAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE STORMS WILL NOT WAIT FOR PEAK HEATING TO DEVELOP TODAY AND
LAPSE RATES LOWER TO 7-8 DEG/KM...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HIGH AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER CAPES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HAIL
AND WIND WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
NOTABLY WEAKER...BUT DOES CONTAIN SOME DECENT DIRECTIONAL TURNING
AND THUS A LOW TORNADO THREAT CAN/T BE DISCOUNTED. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD
BE EAST OF I-35 BY 7PM...AND EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE NORTHERN ZONES MAY CONTEND WITH SOME WRAP AROUND LOW
CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...WITH A BIT OF A REINFORCING FRONT THURSDAY WHEN
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY. HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR 80 WEDNESDAY AND
THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL
BENEFIT FROM DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DROP OFF INTO THE 50S
BOTH NIGHTS. WEAK RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON FRIDAY AND MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES BY SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS A
WEAK FRONT AND STALLS IT ACROSS THE NW ZONES ON SATURDAY. GFS/GEM
MODELS ARE INEXPLICABLY WET WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
DESPITE A TOTAL LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN. ECMWF IS
FAVORED...AS IT SHOWS SOME THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT KEEPS QPF
LOW. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE STALLED FRONT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  56  80  57  80  58 /  20   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              54  81  55  82  57 /  30   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             58  78  54  75  53 /  70  10  10   5   0
DENTON, TX            51  79  53  79  52 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  78  52  78  52 /  40   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            57  80  58  80  58 /  30   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           58  80  54  79  54 /  50   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  56  80  57 /  50   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            55  82  55  83  57 /  30   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  79  52  80  54 /  10   0   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
229 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
229 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE CONTINUING
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS. STRONG TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. GREATEST THREAT FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL FROM BE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY EAST OF A DECATUR...WEATHERFORD...
HAMILTON...AND LAMPASAS LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE THREAT
OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
207 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 PM     HAIL             ARLINGTON               32.73N  97.12W
04/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       TARRANT            TX   OTHER FEDERAL

            CWSU REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT THE ZFW/ARTCC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
224 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     HAIL             3 N IRVING              32.86N  96.92W
04/03/2012  E2.75 INCH       DALLAS             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            UP TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL IS FALLING IN NORTH IRVING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
225 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     HAIL             COPPELL                 32.95N  97.02W
04/03/2012  E2.75 INCH       DALLAS             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NEAR DUNCAN DRIVE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
228 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             EULESS                  32.83N  97.08W
04/03/2012  E2.75 INCH       TARRANT            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BASEBALL HAIL NEAR 360 AND HARWOOD IN EULESS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
234 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     HAIL             LEWISVILLE              33.07N  97.00W
04/03/2012  E1.75 INCH       DENTON             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            NEAR LEWISVILLE LAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
235 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             THE COLONY              33.09N  96.89W
04/03/2012  E1.75 INCH       DENTON             TX   AMATEUR RADIO