Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Fort Worth, TX

795 
WWUS54 KFWD 031604
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1104 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXC143-221-363-367-031630-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-120403T1630Z/
ERATH TX-HOOD TX-PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
1104 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN PARKER...EASTERN PALO PINTO...NORTHWESTERN HOOD AND
NORTH CENTRAL ERATH COUNTIES...

AT 1104 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LIPAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MILLSAP AROUND 1120 AM CDT...
  COOL...MINERAL WELLS STATE PARK AND MINERAL WELLS AROUND 1125 AM
  CDT...
  WEATHERFORD AROUND 1130 AM CDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 373 AND 400.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH
LITTLE ADVANCE WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3301 9813 3299 9754 3242 9803 3245 9825
      3274 9828
TIME...MOT...LOC 1604Z 220DEG 35KT 3256 9805

$$


CAVANAUGH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1017 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

.AVIATION...
15Z UPDATE AND CONCERNS...TIMING OF SEVERE STORMS INTO N TX TERMINALS.
TERMINAL SHUTDOWNS FOR 1-2 HOURS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19-22Z /MAIN
WINDOW/. THIS COULD CHANGE IF SQ LINE ACCELERATES EWD. MINOR
CONCERNS REGARDING CIG TIMING FROM IFR TO LOW VFR BY 18Z/AFTER.

BROKEN SQ LINE NOW ALONG/WEST OF BOWIE-MINERAL WELLS-STEPHENVILLE
AND COMANCHE LINE. INDIVIDUAL SEVERE TSRA MOVING NE 30-35
KTS...WITH LINE AS A WHOLE MOVING E 15-20 KTS. THIS WOULD PUT
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS/LARGE HAIL/AND
FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING INTO WRN METRO AIRPORTS BY 18Z...DFW/GKY BY
19Z AND DAL/LOVE FIELD/ BY 20Z. HAVE INTRODUCE VRB20G40KTS WITH
IFR VSBYS IN TSRA/CB FOR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE 2-HR WINDOWS STARTING
AT THOSE TIMES. TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE APPROACH 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE.

TT AND OUN WRF MODELS ARE HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTIVE SCENARIO
BETTER THAN THE SREF/HRRR HI-RES MODELS. MAIN CYCLONIC JET STREAK
ALREADY ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW THROUGH W TX ATTM AND THAT HAS THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT OCCURRING ALREADY ACROSS WRN N TX. THE DRYLINE
AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...SHUNTING THE MAIN SEVERE WX THREAT TO THE E/SE OF ALL N
TX TERMINALS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ISSUE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ALSO RAISED POPS IN
THE WEST THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASING STORM COVERAGE EVIDENT IN
RADAR. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS CUTOFF AND IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY OVER
NEW MEXICO. ONE VORT LOBE ROTATED THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS MONDAY
EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING INTO COLORADO. FIRST SHORTWAVE
TRACKED A BIT TOO FAR NORTHWEST...AND CONVECTION THAT INITIATED
ON THE DRY LINE STRUGGLED. NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY WAS ANALYZED AT
00Z ALONG I-40 IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA...AND
THIS TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH FAR WEST TEXAS AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE FORCING FOR LIFT FROM THIS UPPER ENERGY SHOULD
BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OVERNIGHT AIRCRAFT DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CAP REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES ACCORDING TO LATEST LOCAL OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. MEANWHILE A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BOUNDARY ../TECHNICALLY
CLASSIFIED AS A WEAK FRONT BECAUSE PASSAGE IS MARKED BY PRESSURE
RISES/.. IS ALONG A LINE FROM OLNEY TO EASTLAND AND IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST. CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SYNOPTIC ASSISTANCE FOR
LIFT AT THIS TIME THE CONVECTION IS REMAINING WEAK AND NON-SEVERE.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THIS
MORNING...AIDED IN PART BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ANEMIC UNTIL THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID-LATE MORNING AND HELPS
TO PRIME THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
CAPPING SHOULD BECOME NON-EXISTENT TODAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
COMANCHE TO HILLSBORO TO ATHENS LINE...WITH A WEAK CAP REMAINING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THUS EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
NORTH OF THIS LINE AND HAVE POPS GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT IN THIS
AREA...WITH POPS OF 50 PERCENT FARTHER SOUTH. SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES BY MIDDAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE STORMS WILL NOT WAIT FOR PEAK HEATING TO DEVELOP TODAY AND
LAPSE RATES LOWER TO 7-8 DEG/KM...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HIGH AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER CAPES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HAIL
AND WIND WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
NOTABLY WEAKER...BUT DOES CONTAIN SOME DECENT DIRECTIONAL TURNING
AND THUS A LOW TORNADO THREAT CAN/T BE DISCOUNTED. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD
BE EAST OF I-35 BY 7PM...AND EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE NORTHERN ZONES MAY CONTEND WITH SOME WRAP AROUND LOW
CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...WITH A BIT OF A REINFORCING FRONT THURSDAY WHEN
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY. HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR 80 WEDNESDAY AND
THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL
BENEFIT FROM DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DROP OFF INTO THE 50S
BOTH NIGHTS. WEAK RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON FRIDAY AND MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES BY SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS A
WEAK FRONT AND STALLS IT ACROSS THE NW ZONES ON SATURDAY. GFS/GEM
MODELS ARE INEXPLICABLY WET WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
DESPITE A TOTAL LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN. ECMWF IS
FAVORED...AS IT SHOWS SOME THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT KEEPS QPF
LOW. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE STALLED FRONT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  56  80  57  80 /  80  20   5   5   0
WACO, TX              80  54  81  55  82 /  60  30   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             80  58  78  54  75 /  70  70  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            80  51  79  53  79 /  80  20   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          80  54  78  52  78 /  80  40   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80  57  80  58  80 /  80  30   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           80  58  80  54  79 /  80  50   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         81  59  81  56  80 /  70  50   5   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            81  55  82  55  83 /  50  30   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  49  79  52  80 /  80  10   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

05/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
405 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
405 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS...HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
927 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ116-031500-
PALO PINTO TX-
927 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 927 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF RANGER...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWESTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GORDON.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...PENNY SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3276 9806 3261 9806 3251 9807 3251 9858
      3275 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 1427Z 203DEG 23KT 3260 9850

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
941 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ141-031515-
COMANCHE TX-
941 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY

AT 941 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES WEST OF DUBLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DE LEON.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3226 9855 3206 9842 3182 9874 3208 9893
TIME...MOT...LOC 1441Z 229DEG 27KT 3218 9856

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
949 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     HAIL             GRAHAM                  33.10N  98.60W
04/03/2012  E1.50 INCH       YOUNG              TX   PUBLIC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1000 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ130-031530-
ERATH TX-
1000 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN ERATH COUNTY

AT 1000 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES WEST OF STEPHENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE STEPHENVILLE...HUCKABAY AND
MORGAN MILL.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...NICKEL SIZED HAIL...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3226 9854 3230 9847 3252 9848 3251 9807
      3232 9798 3231 9798 3222 9794 3210 9844
      3226 9855 3227 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 1500Z 236DEG 23KT 3230 9843

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1033 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 AM     HAIL             1 S GRAFORD             32.92N  98.25W
04/03/2012  E1.50 INCH       PALO PINTO         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT INTERSECTION OF
            GRASSY RIDGE ROAD AND HWY 337.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1040 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ116-031615-
PALO PINTO TX-
1040 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 1041 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GORDON.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3279 9857 3280 9806 3251 9807 3251 9857
TIME...MOT...LOC 1541Z 223DEG 32KT 3263 9821

CAVANAUGH