Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Fort Worth, TX

132 
WWUS54 KFWD 031500
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1000 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXC363-031530-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-120403T1530Z/
PALO PINTO TX-
1000 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
FOR PALO PINTO COUNTY...

AT 1000 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR PALO PINTO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GRAFORD AROUND 1015 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 9841 3300 9806 3297 9806 3252 9829
      3252 9857
TIME...MOT...LOC 1500Z 210DEG 34KT 3279 9830

$$


DUNN

272 
WWUS54 KFWD 031517
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1017 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXC363-031530-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-120403T1530Z/
PALO PINTO TX-
1017 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
FOR PALO PINTO COUNTY...

AT 1016 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5
MILES SOUTH OF GRAFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GRAFORD IN PALO PINTO COUNTY AT 1030 AM CDT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 9841 3300 9806 3297 9806 3252 9829
      3252 9857
TIME...MOT...LOC 1516Z 214DEG 34KT 3289 9826

$$


CAVANAUGH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
927 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ISSUE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ALSO RAISED POPS IN
THE WEST THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASING STORM COVERAGE EVIDENT IN
RADAR. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...IFR AND MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AND THUNDER AFFECTING
THE AIRPORTS TODAY.

MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT
SOME CLEARING IS OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CEILINGS FILLING BACK IN TO THE WEST...THUS
WILL BEGIN THE TAFS WITH IFR AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 1000 FEET. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AROUND NORTH
TEXAS AND PERIODS OF BRIEF LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT THE AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TODAY. AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. USING THE LATEST HI-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL MENTION THUNDER IN THE TAFS
BETWEEN 16-22Z WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 18-22Z. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AIRPORTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE DFW METROPLEX TAF LOCATIONS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT OPERATIONS THAN KACT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CLEARS THE AIRPORTS TO THE
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND THEN FINALLY TO THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS CUTOFF AND IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY OVER
NEW MEXICO. ONE VORT LOBE ROTATED THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS MONDAY
EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING INTO COLORADO. FIRST SHORTWAVE
TRACKED A BIT TOO FAR NORTHWEST...AND CONVECTION THAT INITIATED
ON THE DRY LINE STRUGGLED. NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY WAS ANALYZED AT
00Z ALONG I-40 IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA...AND
THIS TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH FAR WEST TEXAS AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE FORCING FOR LIFT FROM THIS UPPER ENERGY SHOULD
BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OVERNIGHT AIRCRAFT DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CAP REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES ACCORDING TO LATEST LOCAL OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. MEANWHILE A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BOUNDARY ../TECHNICALLY
CLASSIFIED AS A WEAK FRONT BECAUSE PASSAGE IS MARKED BY PRESSURE
RISES/.. IS ALONG A LINE FROM OLNEY TO EASTLAND AND IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST. CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SYNOPTIC ASSISTANCE FOR
LIFT AT THIS TIME THE CONVECTION IS REMAINING WEAK AND NON-SEVERE.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THIS
MORNING...AIDED IN PART BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ANEMIC UNTIL THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID-LATE MORNING AND HELPS
TO PRIME THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
CAPPING SHOULD BECOME NON-EXISTENT TODAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
COMANCHE TO HILLSBORO TO ATHENS LINE...WITH A WEAK CAP REMAINING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THUS EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
NORTH OF THIS LINE AND HAVE POPS GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT IN THIS
AREA...WITH POPS OF 50 PERCENT FARTHER SOUTH. SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES BY MIDDAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE STORMS WILL NOT WAIT FOR PEAK HEATING TO DEVELOP TODAY AND
LAPSE RATES LOWER TO 7-8 DEG/KM...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HIGH AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER CAPES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HAIL
AND WIND WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
NOTABLY WEAKER...BUT DOES CONTAIN SOME DECENT DIRECTIONAL TURNING
AND THUS A LOW TORNADO THREAT CAN/T BE DISCOUNTED. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD
BE EAST OF I-35 BY 7PM...AND EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE NORTHERN ZONES MAY CONTEND WITH SOME WRAP AROUND LOW
CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...WITH A BIT OF A REINFORCING FRONT THURSDAY WHEN
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY. HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR 80 WEDNESDAY AND
THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL
BENEFIT FROM DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DROP OFF INTO THE 50S
BOTH NIGHTS. WEAK RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON FRIDAY AND MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES BY SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS A
WEAK FRONT AND STALLS IT ACROSS THE NW ZONES ON SATURDAY. GFS/GEM
MODELS ARE INEXPLICABLY WET WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
DESPITE A TOTAL LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN. ECMWF IS
FAVORED...AS IT SHOWS SOME THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT KEEPS QPF
LOW. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE STALLED FRONT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  56  80  57  80 /  80  20   5   5   0
WACO, TX              80  54  81  55  82 /  60  30   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             80  58  78  54  75 /  70  70  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            80  51  79  53  79 /  80  20   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          80  54  78  52  78 /  80  40   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80  57  80  58  80 /  80  30   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           80  58  80  54  79 /  80  50   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         81  59  81  56  80 /  70  50   5   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            81  55  82  55  83 /  50  30   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  49  79  52  80 /  80  10   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
405 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
405 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS...HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

82/JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
903 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 AM     HAIL             CISCO                   32.38N  98.97W
04/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       EASTLAND           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
911 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 AM     HAIL             3 S CARBON              32.23N  98.83W
04/03/2012  E1.75 INCH       EASTLAND           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
923 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     HAIL             POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE     32.90N  98.50W
04/03/2012  E0.88 INCH       PALO PINTO         TX   PUBLIC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
927 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ116-031500-
PALO PINTO TX-
927 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 927 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF RANGER...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWESTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GORDON.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...PENNY SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3276 9806 3261 9806 3251 9807 3251 9858
      3275 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 1427Z 203DEG 23KT 3260 9850

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
941 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ141-031515-
COMANCHE TX-
941 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY

AT 941 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES WEST OF DUBLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DE LEON.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3226 9855 3206 9842 3182 9874 3208 9893
TIME...MOT...LOC 1441Z 229DEG 27KT 3218 9856

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
949 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     HAIL             GRAHAM                  33.10N  98.60W
04/03/2012  E1.50 INCH       YOUNG              TX   PUBLIC